ALDS post season preview

By the time you read this, some part of my brilliant analysis will have been proven to be as reliable as Terry Adams with a one-run lead, but I will press on anyway and preview the AL Division Series.

Boston Red Sox vs. Anaheim Angels

Wow, this one should really be for the World Series shouldn't it? I mean these two teams are major league scary, the two NOBODY wants to play. Sure they have their faults. The Angels are a bit banged up, and their starting rotation is hardly frightening, but they win. The Sox? Well they look like they could go for a nine-run inning at any time, against anyone. Unfortunately, they sometimes look like their ready to give up one of those nine-spots at the drop of a hat themselves.

Some have been saying that the Angels are in trouble offensively due to the injury to Adam Kennedy and the suspension of Jose Guillen. Maybe, but people forget this Angels team gets big hits from everyone. Hell, Alfredo Amezaga hit two home-runs this year, they were both grand-slams. And guys like Bengie Molina and David Eckstein have developed a history of coming up in the clutch.

Plus, NO TEAM in baseball is better at generating runs than the Halos. They execute like Vlad Tepes, it's unreal. Add to that that their bullpen has been quite rightly identified as the very definition of "lights out". There are no weak spots, even the maligned Troy Percival has found his mojo, posting a 1.57 ERA and holding opposing hitters to .193 average in the second. This Angels pen will shut the door, the Sox might be able to get them to once in the series, maybe not even that.

Of course, this could still be a three-game sweep for Boston. By the time Anaheim gets to their pen the Red Sox could have beat the snot out of Jarrod Washburn, Kelvim Escobar and Barolo Colon. Now the last two are pitching very well right now, and Colon has big-game experience, but would you be shocked to turn on the TV in the third inning of any of those three's starts and see the Angels down 5-0?

Boston is feeling it, they couldn't reel in the Yankees, so there are still some doubts about their mental toughness, but this team didn't go away all season. You also have to give the Sox credit for making the Nomar deal. It could have been a disaster, but the front office was right. This is an organization in which everyone from the ball-boy to the GM is ready to do whatever it takes to win.

The Sox may also be the best come from behind team in the majors - no lead is safe from them, and they MURDER mediocre pitching. Which means the Angels starters have to be very sharp to keep Boston from taking the games away early.

Still, this team has not been able to win the big one, and in the AL right now, the Angels are the "big one". Plus this notion that Boston has the starters to dominate a short series is just not true. Curt Schilling is gold, but Pedro, he's not Pedro anymore. Martinez had one month this year with an ERA under 3.00 -- that's not bad, but it's not Pedro. He's proven that he can be hit, and the Angels are relentless, they grind opposing pitchers down, every hitter has a plan and that tires out opposing hurlers that much faster.

Then there is Derek Lowe who had ONE good season, great to be fair, when really nobody in baseball had seen him as a starter. So Lowe could get away with really only having two good pitches. Since September of 2002 Lowe has had precisely three months when his ERA was 3.50 or less. Lowe is in the pen, as he should be, but this means that Tim Wakefield (who can be scary -- either way) or Bronson Arroyo will have to win a game - because you know the Halo's will find a way to take at least one off of Pedro or Curt.

I like Arroyo in this role, he's young -- only 27, and in the past he was one of those "if he could only find his control he could be pretty good" guys in Pittsburgh. Well this year Bronson's K'ing over seven guys a game, and he walked just 46 all season. He reminds me of John Lackey, should be scared, but isn't. I have a feeling he goes out there in Game 3, guns blazing and he and Kelvim Escobar have a hell of duel. The winner of that one might just decide the series.

As far as the Boston pen goes, question. Do you think Keith Foulke is thinking of growing his hair long a-la Johnny Damon? He's doing this of course to hide the mark of the "Curse of the Bambino" that suddenly imprinted itself at the base of his neck. Foulke blew only seven saves this year. But when he blew two back-to-back against Baltimore, right after the Yankees had a-bombed the Sox to end their first "big series" in September, fans got worried. Foulke has rebounded since, but how comfortable is a one-run lead with a guy who doesn't strike out many, against the best little ball team in the league?

I'm torn on this series, really torn. Part of me could see the Sox steam-roll. Win in three straight. A Schilling gem, a slug-fest with Pedro, and a nervy performance by Arroyo. But if that doesn't happen, well I have to like the Angels bullpen and their ability to manufacture runs. Plus, Vlad Guerrero -he's a huge factor that you cannot underestimate. He's the best player in the series because unlike Manny Ramirez or David Ortiz he can play defense. Vlady can dominate a game. He can hit any ball thrown at him, and he could get the Sox runners so afraid of trying to take the extra base that he shaves a run a game from Boston's total by himself.

I'm going with the Angels in four games.

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins

Johan Santana vs. 100 plus years of Yankee magic. A sublime left arm vs. a team that seemingly manages to win every big game it has to.

Except it's not that simple. These Yanks, they HAVEN'T won the big game, for three years now. They have question marks everywhere. The Yankees starters could get shelled by the Kansas City Royals, in fact they have. Their best starter, Orlando Hernandez is hurt, Kevin Brown has had two starts since breaking his hand. While Mike Mussina is this season's Pedro, but way worse when he's bad.

Their pen before Mariano Rivera, and arguably Tom Gordon is wobbly. Paul Quantrill has been so wretched since the break that Tanyon Sturtze might pitch in significant situations -- this is a good thing if you are a Twins fan.

First base could be a black-hole offensively (though I like John Olerud to have a couple of big hits). So could second-base. At DH, depending on how the Kenny Lofton, Bernie Williams thing plays out, you might have a fading Sierra, or possibly Tony Clark. Yikes.

Speaking of Lofton -- do teams win world-series with players like him? Guys who let their No. 1 rivals rally to beat the best reliever in baseball? I'm not saying Lofton would have caught that ball in the 9th inning of the Sox 3-2 win back in September, but he didn't even dive. Those little things mean a lot more now for a Yankees team with an ever-thinning margin of error.

If you're Joe Torre do you start Bernie, knowing his defense is a shadow of what it was, but that he'll bust it every day? Or do you keep him as the DH -- pushing Sierra out of the line-up in favour of Lofton? I don't know, I'd say sit Lofton except he's had a history of doing some very good things in the post-season, and the Yankees need every bit of defense they can get.

Of course these are the Yankees, and the Yankees find ways to win. Mussina could beat Santana once, he's stubborn and can still be dominant as he has been in September (2.17 ERA). Steve Karsay is back, and if he can find his groove quickly that Yanks pen looks much stronger. Kevin Brown gave up one hit in his last start, and Jon Leiber has been very good (5-0, 3.12 ERA) in September. Gary Sheffield, Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, Alex Rodriguez - these are men who can win for you. Between Lofton, Williams, Olerud, and Sierra there are enough canny vets that you only need one or two to step forward on any given day to make the difference between a win or a loss.

As for the Twins? They have the same problems that plagued them in playoff losses the past two seasons -- a lack of offense. In their five game loss to Anaheim in 2002 the Twins scored just 11 runs, five of those in the blowout Game 5 loss. Last year against New York they scored just six runs in losing the series 3-1.

This Twins team is not vastly different. Justin Morneau is the main change, and he is significant. The young first baseman does not yet get on base at an elite level, but he's the only real power threat in the Twins line-up. No Twin hit more than 25 home-runs this year, while Morneau hit 19, in basically a half season. After that Shannon Stewart and Lew Ford are both superior offensive players, but in general the Twins don't get on base that much.

Not a single Twin drove in as many as 82 runners. No regular hit as high as .305, and only Morneau slugged over .500. With Joe Mauer out, the Twins need to rely on Henry Blanco and Pat Borders behind the plate -- that probably won't get it done. Cristian Guzman doesn't hit at short. Luis Rivas lost his job at second to Michael Cuddyer because he was even worse with the bat than Guzman. Cuddyer is better, but still average. Torii Hunter has shown an ability to raise his game in a short series, and he has to be at his best to allow the Twins to take advantage of the Yankees' potential pitching woes.

The Twins do have the edge defensively, but it's not as big as it could be. Cuddyer is not as good as Rivas at second, while Stewart's athleticism masks his poor instincts in the outfield and his weak arm will allow the Yankees to be aggressive on the bases. Morneau has been very impressive in limited time at first, but in the crunch he can't be counted on to be as good as the traded Gold-Glover Doug Mientkiewicz has been.

Of course with the way the Twins can pitch this might not be an issue. Minnesota lead the AL with a 4.03 ERA. The Twins have what the Sox say they do -- a 1-2 punch that could destroy an opponent. Santana is the AL Cy Young -- case closed. Brad Radke though has been a real revelation -- he's having the best year of his career. He finished third in the AL in WHIP and fourth in ERA. Carlos Silva has been tabbed as the 3rd Twins starter, there is a big drop-off here, and I am not a Silva fan, but he was good to start the year and in September seemed to rediscover that form.

Meanwhile the Twins have a pen that is only a step short of St. Louis or Anaheim's. Joe Nathan is a great closer. Juan Rincon, Grant Balfour and J.C. Romero all strike out over eight men per nine innings pitched -- that kills a lot of rallies. While rookie Jesse Crain has been excellent in his short sting in the majors. Minnesota won't score a lot if the Yankees hurlers are on -- their offense simply isn't good enough, but if they can get just a bit of help from New York's pitching staff the Twins have the ability to lock down a lead. Even against a clutch hitting team like New York.

Still which way do you go? In the end I know the Twins are not an elite offensive team, while the Yankees could get good to excellent pitching. A team doesn't win 101 games without it. The Yanks home-run powered offense means they only need a couple of Twinkie mistakes to get their runs, and in the end that will be enough.

My pick -- Yankees in four games.