Fight to the Finish in Final Days of Australia Poll

The contenders in Australia's election are neck and neck three days before the ballot, with the latest opinion polls disagreeing on who will win.

The prime minister, John Howard, had neutralised the strong lead held by the Labor opposition leader, Mark Latham, early in the six-week campaign, but a fightback by Labor last week leaves the result too close to call.

The latest Newspoll yesterday predicted a repeat of 2001's down-to-the-wire result, showing the Liberal-National coalition taking 50.5% of the vote against 49.5% for the Labor opposition.

But a Roy Morgan poll carried out over the same period had Labor on 51.5%, 3% ahead of the government. As with most polling in recent weeks, both results fall within the 3% margin of error.

The party leaders were visiting Adelaide yesterday to drum up support in five key marginals in the city, three of which are held by Mr Howard's ruling Liberal-National coalition.

"It is wafer thin either way," Mr Howard told reporters. "Anyone who thinks that that poll represents some kind of assurance of victory for the coalition couldn't be more wrong. It is going to be very close indeed and I mean that."

There has been voting for more than a fortnight in remote rural electorates. With 13 million voters spread over 3m sq miles, Australia is one of the most sparsely populated democracies in the world. Seats range from the 10sq mile Wentworth in Sydney's beachside suburbs to the 800,000sq mile Kalgoorlie, which takes up most of Western Australia and covers an area the size of western Europe.

Saturday's election will decide the fate of the 150-seat house of representatives, in which the largest faction forms the government, as well as half the places in the 76-member senate.

International issues have been low on the agenda in a campaign fought predominantly on the domestic topics of health, education, families and the care of elderly people. A recent poll found that the Iraq war was a priority for only 3% of voters.

The fate of Tasmania's old-growth forests is expected to become a key battleground. Labor will announce its policy on Monday and the government today. The Green party, polling at 9%, wants a ban on logging. But the forestry lobby threatened a backlash in Tasmanian marginals after Mr Latham promised to review the status of the industry if Labor won the election.

Green votes are important in Australia's preferential voting system. In a close contest, where no party has an absolute majority, second preferences for minor parties such as the Greens can decide the winner.

Psephologist Anthony Green said the Green preferences would be worth more than the Tasmanian marginals, but questioned whether they would be enough to unseat Mr Howard.

"I would expect the government to be back, very narrowly. Australian governments don't normally lose in good economic conditions," he said.