Game of Global Jihad That's Too Simplistic

For the Bush administration a seamless link exists between the Bali bombings and a host of similar post-September 11 atrocities in places as far apart as Iraq, Afghanistan, north Africa, Madrid and London. Speaking from the headquarters of the "global war on terror", the US secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, was quick to make the connection. "The United States stands with the people and government of Indonesia," she said.

John Howard, Australia's prime minister, suggested the Bali bombers' primary targets were democracy and the west. Al-Qaida, whose south-east Asian affiliate, Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) is believed responsible for the bombings, has also encouraged the idea of a worldwide conflict.

In a statement after the Bali attacks of 2002, al-Qaida detailed its "achievements" in a dozen or more countries and vowed yet wider havoc. "The mujahideen have kept their promise to the umma [the Muslim faithful] to end its humiliation and degradation by launching painful strikes and victorious operations ... against the treacherous coalition of Jews and Crusaders wherever it is to be found," al-Qaida said.

South-east Asia's militant Islamists have much in common with counterparts elsewhere. Jemaah Islamiyah espouses an Islamic caliphate embracing Indonesia, Malaysia, southern Thailand and parts of the Philippines. This idea of establishing regional hegemonies of the faithful is shared in the Middle East by al-Qaida in Iraq, Gamaa Islamiyah in Egypt, and by Islamists in central Asia.

Violent hardliners in south-east Asia have also exploited faultlines similar to those existing in the Arab world, according to a dissertation by Xinsheng Wang, a regional specialist: "Extremist groups are using south-east Asia as an operations base and attack target," he said.

Poor living and educational standards, porous borders, corrupt and unrepresentative governments, and armed resistance movements (as in Mindanao in the Philippines and south Thailand) have all been used to spread fundamentalist influence, Professor Wang said. JI activists had received training in Afghanistan and elsewhere. "There are Indonesian alumni of the Chechen war. Al-Qaida claims, in Karachi, to have 100 Indonesians in training. The JI is not restricted to southern Asia."

But clear differences between south-east Asia and other terrorist "hotspots" also suggest the idea of an all-embracing worldwide conflict is simplistic. Violence has little discernible public support in most countries.

There have been some notable counter-terrorist successes, such as the 2003 arrest in Thailand of the alleged JI leader, Hambali. And democratic institutions, though brittle, have taken root in the region.

Crucially, moderate Islamist parties such as Pas in Malaysia, and Indonesia's Justice party, which could become a major parliamentary force by 2009, are permitted to be active in politics. Despite worries about growing intolerance, expressed by Indonesia's former president, Abdurrahman Wahid, officials say encouraging this kind of internal democratic evolution rather than playing al-Qaida's game of global jihad, may prove the best way to disarm JI and other killers on the fringe.