Disillusion and Extremism Mar Serbian Election

Serbs went to the polls yesterday to elect a new president for the first time since taking to the streets to overthrow Slobodan Milosevic exactly two years ago.

Vojislav Kostunica, the conservative nationalist who replaced the alleged war criminal, was expected to secure a comfortable victory against the pro-western economist and deputy prime minister, Miroljub Labus.

However, a 50% turnout is needed for the ballot to be valid. Heavy rain yesterday, and the fact that a mere 55% voted in the first round a fortnight ago, left pundits doubting whether any president would be elected at all. Early voting figures suggested turnout was substantially down on the first round.

While hundreds of thousands took to the streets two years ago in support of joyful revolution, the election yesterday was more noteworthy for a mood of depression and disillusion with democracy.

The ballot also confirmed the return of nationalism as a potent votewinner in the Balkans, and represented a setback for pro-western reforms despite the disastrous experience of the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s.

Yesterday's poll in Serbia looked likely to mirror last week's election in neighbouring Bosnia, in which turnout was also low and reforms being promoted by the west suffered a severe setback as hardline nationalist parties triumphed.

In Croatia, too, the moderate pro-western government is under strong pressure from nationalists.

In Serbia, Mr Kostunica succeeded Mr Milosevic as the president of Yugoslavia, but is running for the presidency since his current job will disappear when the Yugoslav federation of Serbia and Montenegro is dissolved in favour of a looser union later this year.

Mr Labus, the candidate supported by the west, is a protege of the powerful but unpopular Serbian prime minister, Zoran Djindjic. Mr Labus came second a fortnight ago in a field of 11, with 27% to Mr Kostunica's 31%.

But opinion polls predicted that Mr Kostunica would win last night by a margin of two-to-one, benefiting from the strong nationalist vote.

The warlord, ultra-nationalist, and suspected war criminal Vojislav Seselj took 23% per cent of the vote a fortnight ago after his candidacy was blessed by Mr Milosevic from his jail cell in The Hague.

But Mr Kostunica has devoted part of his campaign to attracting the nationalist vote, sparking a diplomatic incident with Bosnia by saying that the Serb half of Bosnia was only "temporarily" separated from Serbia - and then last week praising the "wise" policies of Bosnia's Serbian Democratic Party, the hardline secessionist party founded by the indicted war criminal, Radovan Karadzic.

Mr Labus, by contrast, has focused on the need for radical economic reform and rapprochement with the EU.

After voting yesterday, Mr Labus said: "I did everything to persuade Serbian voters to go out and vote for a modern, pro-European Serbia".

Taken together, the Serbian and the Bosnian elections look likely to result in political paralysis.

Last weekend's Bosnian poll was the country's first sovereign election since the war ended in 1995. On the lowest turnout since the end of communism in the former Yugoslavia in 1990, moderates and multi-ethnic parties suffered a surprise defeat despite strong support from the west.

Voters cast their ballots for the same three narrowly ethnic parties, representing Muslims, Serbs, and Croats, that took the country to war in 1992.

Last night's election in Serbia is the prelude to a protracted power struggle between Mr Kostunica and Mr Djindjic which could result in further parliamentary and presidential elections, and even greater voter disaffection.

Ironically, Mr Djindjic was hoping that yesterday's poll would be ruled invalid, because that would require a re-run within three months - delaying parliamentary elections which the prime minister would probably lose.