Champs face biggest challenge yet

There are probably not a lot of baseball fans around the country rooting for the Yankees right now.

They've spent four of the last five years dominating the postseason so thoroughly, that even after two mediocre seasons in 2000 and 2001, the Yankees were still favorites entering October.

A mystique has surrounded this team since their stunning comeback from being down 2-0 in the 1996 World Series against the Braves, when Jim Leyritz smacked a three run homer off closer Mark Wohlers, tying the game and then eventually the series.

The Bombers went on to win that Series and strung together twelve straight World Series victories. It's safe to say the biggest challenge the Yankees had faced in the five years of their championship run came at the beginning of their run in 1996.

Is it ironic, then, that as the Yanks try to extend their dominance to six years that their biggest challenge of all comes at what is most likely the end of their run?

Thursday night, the Yanks lost for the second straight evening to the Oakland Athletics in Yankee Stadium, putting them behind 2-0 in the American League Division Series and all but ending their chances at winning their fourth straight World Championship.

History doesn't bode well for the Yankees winning two straight in Oakland, considering the A's haven't lost there in seventeen games. Should the series actually make it a fifth game, both teams would fly back from Oakland on Sunday night for a game five Monday evening in Yankee Stadium.

The burning question is -- can the Yankees even make it that far?

Oakland has been the most dominating team in the majors, even more so than the Seattle Mariners, since the All-Star break posting a 58-17 record for a .773 winning percentage. They have what maybe the best starting pitching trio in baseball with Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, and Barry Zito, who combined for a 56-25 record and 3.43 ERA, a full run below the American League ERA of 4.47. They have Jason Giambi who is simply one of the most dominant hitters in the American League, Johnny Damon who has six hits, one walk, and two stolen bases in 10 plate appearances in the ALDS, and Jason Isringhausen closing, who came out of the bullpen Wednesday night in game one throwing 99 MPH bullets.

The A's are a very talented team and probably the best team in the majors right now.

Despite all of this, the Yankees still have a chance, albeit a small one.

Game three will see Barry Zito of the A's go up against the Yanks' Mike Mussina.

Zito pitched great down the stretch after struggling the first half of the season, going 11-2 with a 2.29 ERA after the break. Mussina improved on his first half numbers as well, going 8-4 with a 2.91 ERA after the break and a 1.32 ERA in September and October.

Zito has pitched the Yanks tough, and being a left-hander, Yankee manager Joe Torre will probably leave ailing Paul O'Neill and maybe even David Justice on the bench in favor of Shane Spencer and Randy Velarde. Neither Spencer or Velarde has had an at-bat this series, which might actually be a good thing for the anemic Yankee offense.

What does all this mean? It means game three will be one heck of a pitching match up, one that the Yankees stand a good chance of winning.

If that happens, the Yankees go into game four with Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez on the mound probably facing Cory Lidle.

Lidle had an impressive year for the A's in his first real season as a starter, going 13-6 with a 3.59 ERA. Curiously, as a right-hander, Lidle pitched better against lefties which could help him against the Yankees, who would probably start O'Neill and Justice against him. His task is to beat one of the best postseason pitchers of the last twenty years.

El Duque has gone 8-1 for the Yankees in the postseason since joining them in 1998 and single-handedly saved the Yankees season in the 1998 ALCS against the Indians, pitching seven innings of three-hit ball, tying the series at 2-2 and pushing the Yanks to the World Series.

He has struggled this season, battling a foot injury and a tired arm towards the end of the season, but he threw four scoreless innings of one run ball against the Devil Rays in his last start of the season, which was a positive sign. If El Duque is on, he can command a game even without his best stuff.

Looking at the Yankees situation, there probably aren't two other pitchers they'd rather have on the mound in two such critical games. Everyone's been talking about what a great season Roger Clemens has had, but realistically, Mussina has been the better pitcher without the run support.

Clemens run support per game averaged 6.58, an incredibly high number, while Mussina received 4.53, or two runs less per game. Even with that disadvantage to his teammate, Mussina still won 17 games this season with an ERA 36 points lower than Clemens. He has been flat out the Yankees best pitcher and gives them the best chance at extending this series into game 3.

El Duque has proved time and again that he can carry the Yankees when they need him. He is a fearless pitcher that seems to relish the big game. His foot injury sidelined him a good part of the season, but that also means that he hasn't worn down his arm this year which at his age could be a factor. Despite the minor discomfort he felt a few weeks ago, El Duque looked sharp in his last start and could provide the Yankees exactly what they need to bring the series back to the Stadium.

Should all of this fall into place for the Yankees, they'll play game five at Yankee Stadium Monday night. It's hard to say exactly what the pitching matchups would be because of the hamstring injury Clemens left with in game one. It is likely that Mark Mulder would start for the A's and Andy Pettitte would go for the Yanks on three days rest.

What will happen in that game? It's a tough one to call. Pettitte isn't as reliable on three days rest, but is certainly capable of another great outing, especially being a left-hander. Mulder, a left-hander as well, has already proven he can handle the Yankees offense, although you can bet Torre would play right-hander Shane Spencer over Paul O'Neill or David Justice, both lefties.

Anything can happen. That's why they play the game and that's why we watch.

In other news, the Braves just finished a sweep of the Astros with a 6-2 win in Atlanta, continuing the Astros woes in the playoffs. Craig Biggio had yet another terrible postseason, getting only two hits in 11 at-bats, while Lance Berkman capped an incredible regular season with only two hits and four strikeouts against Atlanta. In the six playoff series in the Astros' history, they've only won eight games. That's incredible, especially given the talent level of the Astros the last couple of seasons. They played well below their ability last season, going 72-90, but rebounded well this year, winning the Central Division despite ranking tenth in ERA in the National League. It will be interesting to see what happens in the off season for Houston. I'd say pitching is well in need at Enron Field.

That leaves the Arizona-St. Louis series and Seattle-Cleveland. I think Arizona will meet Atlanta in the NLCS and beat the Braves in six games.

As for the AL, Seattle will get past Cleveland probably in five games. They'll go onto the ALCS and meet Oakland A's who have a pretty good handle on the Yankees right now.

Even though I've outlined how the Yanks can possibly get back into this series, the chances of doing it extremely tough. Not impossible, but certainly difficult. In the ALCS then, I'm going to pick Oakland over Seattle in seven games. I don't think I'm really going out on a limb picking Oakland over a team that won 116 games because Oakland was dominant the second half of the season and despite very good seasons by Aaron Sele and Jamie Moyer, I don't think Seattle's pitching matches up.

So my World Series picks are Oakland and Arizona, which would probably rank as one of the worst rated World Series ever. I think it would be a decent match up with Oakland winning it in six games.

Scott Ham can be reached via e-mail at scotth23@hotmail.com