First woman chancellor in Germany

The German elections of September 18, which produced a virtual stalemate, seem at last set not only to provide a Government but one with two 'firsts' to its credit. The first woman Chancellor in Germany's history will head it. Not only that, Ms Angela Merkel will be the first person from what used to be Communist-ruled East Germany, to hold the office. While contributing to the interest with which the performance of her Government will be viewed, these two facts would not constitute the most important reason for it.

The real reason will be its composition as a coalition between her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its ally, the Bavarian Social Union (BSU), on the one hand, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) on the other, which makes it a rather strange ménage a trios of odd political bedfellows. While her party and its Bavarian ally share many common goals, both have very little in common with the SPD with whom they have differed radically on issues like Germany's relations with the United States and stand on economic reforms. Theirs is an arrangement of compulsion. Emerging ahead of the SPD by a whisker in the elections both to the office of the Chancellor and the Bundestag (National Parliament), the CDU and the BSU, which were in no position to form a government by themselves, had to negotiate with the SPD.

In the intense bargaining that followed, the Social Democrats conceded the Chancellorship to Ms Merkel, but bagged not only the Foreign and Finance Ministries, but also a slew of other important portfolios like Labor, Justice, Health, Transportation, Environment and Development. Besides Ms Merkel as Chancellor and a Minister of State at the Chancellery, the CDU will hold the Interior, Defense, Agriculture and Family ministries while Edmund Stoiber, the BSU leader, will be in charge of the Economy Ministry with European Policy as an additional responsibility.

Though Germany is on the road to having a government, the going will be tough, and not only because many loose ends have still to be tied up, which is unlikely to be done before November 12. Once it assumes the reigns of power, the Government will have to grapple constantly with two rather difficult problems. The first is not falling apart, which it can well do if coalition relations are not kept in good repair. Second, which any government would have faced, is coping with Germany's problems.

The main one is of course economic. Its sluggish economy has been hit hard by rising oil prices, which brought industrial production down by 1.6 per cent in August. Unemployment rules at the very high level of 11 per cent. Power sharing is doubtless powerful glue as far as coalitions are concerned. But it is not one that can never come unstuck. Political compulsions as well as calculations have a way of undermining alliances. In this case, ideology can be an additional factor of discord. The message is simple. Ms Merkel will have to steer clear of the treacherous shoals of contentious issues. One of these is likely to be relations with the US, upon which she lays considerable store.