Apple Faces a Mac Attack

Walking around San Francisco early this morning, there was no mistaking it: Macworld is coming to town.

The city barely needs reminding. Macworld San Francisco, the annual gathering of Apple computer users, is one of the biggest events around these parts. Several giant billboards hang high above the city's streets sporting the distinctive Apple logo, along with pictures of the curvy, lamp-like iMac computer launched here a year ago.

Downtown, near the cavernous Moscone centre, which will host the event, huge signs to direct the more than 80,000 expected attendees are in place. Stalls are being knocked together ready for the doors opening, at around 4pm UK time today.

Yet, despite the warm January sunshine that will greet the Macolytes, they might still notice a slightly chilly mood surrounding this year's show. All may not be quite right in the Apple universe.

You could, of course, blame the technology recession. This part of the world has been in the icy grip of the tech slowdown for more than three years now. San Francisco made more - and partied harder - when the dotcom surf was up. But that only left it with further to fall when the tide went out. In the late 1990s, employers struggled to get staff here: today, unemployment stands at 6.1%, against a US average of 5.7%.

That is not all. It is also fair to say there have been some worries specific to Mac users in the run-up to this year's jamboree.

For a start, Apple Computer's participation in the show was in doubt as recently as the start of November. A spat with the company which organises this event, and another Mac show on the US east coast, almost caused Apple to withdraw from both events.

Yet the company's active role in MacExpo is vital. Chief executive Steve Jobs traditionally delivers a barnstorming keynote speech which brings new products, and acres of press coverage, on day one.

The company also books the largest amount of floorspace at the show: without it, audiences could be expected to dwindle to a fraction of those expected this week.

A truce has been called, and Apple will attend this year, with Mr Jobs delivering his keynote as planned. Nevertheless, the spat between organisers and Apple could yet mean the computer maker abandons the Macworld shows, and with them the inconvenient demands they place on Apple to come up with major new product announcements on a strict six-monthly cycle.

This could be the last San Francisco Macworld, worry the old-timers, before Apple moves to a series of smaller "regional" shows run through the year.

There are also fears about exactly what Apple will, or will not, announce at this year's event. Apple has been credited in recent years for opening up an advantage over old foe Microsoft by providing users with powerful but free digital media software, to handle tasks such as video editing and DVD burning. But there is speculation that Mr Jobs will unveil a costly new pricing programme for this software this week.

Given last year's hostile reaction to charges imposed on the previously free Mac online service, this is unlikely to go down well. Could Steve Jobs get a rough ride from his normally adoring keynote crowd?

Finally, hopes of a new Apple-branded personal digital assistant, long hoped-for by Apple watchers and particularly touted this year in the Mac rumour mill, may be dashed too. It is noticeable that the company is refusing all requests for interviews with its senior executives during the week. This is a complete, and unprecedented, reversal of its policy in the past when it has been unveiling new products.

There is nothing like a sexy new machine to get the Macworld crowd excited, so commentators assume - safely - that the lack of one could dampen things down dramatically too. After all, Mac users, by definition, rely on Apple as their sole supplier of computer kit, and such a niche player can rely only on itself to keep the buzz around itself alive.

Apple is certain to attempt to accentuate the positive. They may feel they have plenty to be positive about. In particular, the new version of the Mac OS (a Unix-based system called OSX) has gone mainstream in the last year. It has proved itself robust and useful across Apple's user base, from laptops in schools to servers in commercial racks. The potentially contentious digital media software has also been praised by critics and users.

But can Apple keep the hordes happy by simply restating its advances over the last year? That is unlikely, as we will see tomorrow, ahead of Mr Jobs' speech, the buzzing Mac rumour mill has created a high level of expectancy. Throw in new charging for previously free software, and things could get ugly.

Even Steve Jobs, master salesman that the computer industry veteran is, will struggle to keep this show a smash hit without some decent new props.

Coming up on Guardian Unlimited this week

· Tomorrow: Listening to the rumour mill - what are the Mac pundits predicting? And, on Wednesday, find out what Steve Jobs actually announced.

Thursday and Friday: Ashley Norris reports from Las Vegas as the PC world unveils its latest hardware at the Consumer Electronics Show.