The Mid-Major Myth

The myth in NCAA men's basketball is that there are a wealth of overlooked Mid-major teams just waiting for the opportunity to knock off overrated major conference teams in the NCAA tournament. Despite the memories of Kent State and Valparaiso, history tells us it just ain't so.

In the 1966 NCAA national championship game, a little-known school from El Paso, then called Texas Western, shocked the world by taking Kentucky and legendary coach Adolf Rupp behind the woodshed for an old-fashioned whipping. That upset marked the end of the "good old days" when any team in the field could win the tournament.

Since 1967, every championship, except one, has gone to schools from the seven "Major" basketball conferences -- the SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, PAC 10 and Conference USA. The one exception to that incredible streak is UNLV's title in 1990.

The immutable rule of modern tournament play is that a Major conference team will win the title. The corollary to that rule is that if a conference can't produce a National Champion, it is not a Major conference. That includes the A10, which produces one or two superior teams each year (see St. Joe's for this year's edition), but is never major league from top to bottom.

Not only has this sort of upset not recurred in the championship game, it hasn't occurred in the Final Four or Elite Eight rounds, either. Since seeding began 25 years ago, teams from the seven Major conferences have filled 93 of the 100 Final Four slots. Three of those Mid-major appearances were made by UNLV in the late '80s and early '90s and the last such apparition was back in '98 when Utah reached the Final Four. The people who coined the term, "Mid-major," probably consider those schools to be majors anyway so they wouldn't even count their accomplishments as Mid-major successes.

So what is all this hoopla about Mid-majors? Are there really a bunch of small schools lurking in the shadows, waiting patiently to mug Major schools in the tournament? If so, sightings are rare. Last year Xavier and Dayton were the pride of the A10 with a "3" seed and a "4" seed in the tournament, respectively.

Dayton lost in the first round, Xavier lost in the second; neither team lived up to its seeding. Creighton, the darling of the polls last year, was relegated to a '6' seed but lost in the first round in any event. They were the only Mid-majors among the top 32 seeds in the field. Only Butler, a "12" seed, succeeded in making the Sweet Sixteen after tossing Mississippi State and Louisville out of the tournament in the first two rounds. Then Butler was dispatched by Oklahoma leaving the realm of the Elite Eight exclusively to Major schools once again.

Thus far this season, 19 different teams have been ranked among the top eight teams in one or another of the weekly ESPN/USA Today polls. Seventeen of those teams are still ranked in the Top 25 this week and form a "club" of basketball excellence. Club members are a convincing 41-2 versus Mid-majors, including two victories over vaunted Gonzaga. Kansas suffered the ignominy of both losses, one each to Nevada and well-known giant-killer Richmond. So Kansas might want to beware of the Mid-major threat come tournament time.

Since the Major schools are now busy beating one another up in conference play, opportunities for Mid-majors to waylay another big victim will be sparse until tournament time. Majors are wary of Mid-majors in any case and schedule few of them in pre-conference play. Modern scheduling philosophy for Majors is to load up on Minors for sure wins and sprinkle the schedule with a few games against big name Majors where the outcome will be either a good win or a good loss. A loss to a Mid-major is just too damaging to risk.

As a sort of consolation prize, high profile Mid-majors will audition for preferred tournament seeds by playing one another in a made-for-TV spectacle called Braketbuster Saturday to be staged on the 21st of February. Beating a Mid-major carries little import, so this event may or may not capture America's imagination. But, what's a feared mugger to do?

As in most years, there are two noteworthy Mid-majors this season: Gonzaga and St. Joseph's. They are two of the three most proficient offensive teams in all the land but both have accomplished this feat against lesser competition than their highly ranked brethren. Both teams have Achilles' Heels that will haunt them against better competition.

In its 17 games this year, Gonzaga has committed more turnovers than its opponent nine times and the same number a 10th time. Gonzaga has also had fewer offensive rebounds than its opponent nine times and the same number a 10th time. As a result, Gonzaga has had fewer total opportunities to score than its opponents on the season. It is easy to predict, therefore, that Gonzaga will struggle against good offenses that exploit those extra chances to score. It is also worth noting that while Gonzaga has shot over 50% from the floor on the season, they shot less than 40% combined in their two losses against good competition.

St. Joseph's, which has played the lightest schedule of all 17 members of the "club," has put up impressive numbers both offensively and defensively but has been seriously out-rebounded on the year. Playing a steady diet of other Mid-majors, St. Joseph's only impressive victory is over-you guessed it-Gonzaga, in the season opener.

Gonzaga and St. Joseph's will receive high seeds in the tournament and will coast past minor competition until they reach the Sweet Sixteen. So they won't be a part of the Mid-major assault on the superior Majors in the field. That job will be left to the Creighton's, Utah State's and Western Michigan's of the world, which will be seeded around "11" or "12."

Undoubtedly, some "5" or "6" seeds, plucked from the middle of some Major conference, will get surprised by a Mid-major in the first round. No doubt one of the underdogs will knock off a "3" or "4" seed and make it to the Sweet Sixteen. However, History tells us not to look for Cinderella in the Final Four. The glass slipper hasn't fit anyone for a long time now.