The Hook -- AL East Breakdown (Part III)

By James Meyerriecks FantasyInfoCentral.com Cardinals Correspondent

Spring Training is right around the corner and baseball fans are getting set for another great season. In the next few weeks, we'll preview the pitching staffs for the 2003 MLB season.

Today, we'll continue our look at the AL East. (To see Part 1 or 2, click on one of these links: AL East (Part 1) and AL East (Part 2).)

During our season previews, we will be accompanying players with ratings as to where they belong in a typical twelve team 5X5 rotisserie league draft with 25 rounds. The breakdowns will be as follows...

******, Rounds 1-3 *****, Rounds 4-6 ****, Rounds 7-10 ***, Rounds 11-15 **, Rounds 16-20 *, Rounds 21-25

No stars will be for players who are likely to (and should, in my opinion) go undrafted

AL East Breakdown (Part III)

Most fantasy owners won't take a close look at the staffs of the Blue Jays or Devil Rays this Spring, but each team has a few pitchers who could help put an astute owner over the top. Roy Halladay is the only starter worth a look in the first ten rounds from either team, but Corey Lidle and Joe Kennedy will both likely be drafted in most leagues. Coming up behind them, Dewon Brazelton, Nick Bierbrodt, Mark Hendrickson, and Justin Miller are all worth a look in deep leagues as starters with great potential to break out.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Projected Rotation

Joe Kennedy, *** Dewon Brazelton, * Nick Bierbrodt, * Victor Zambrano Jason Standridge

Closers

Lance Carter, * Jesus Colome, *

Starters

As many young pitchers will do, Kennedy ran hot and cold last season. While he threw five complete games and a shutout, he countered those with a host of pretty mediocre starts to finish the year with a 4.53 ERA, actually nine points higher than his rookie year. He does, however, have the tools to be a worthy addition to most fantasy teams, with good control, a good major league heater, and a solid second pitch. As he continues to develop a third pitch (and the Rays build a team behind him), Kennedy should see those win totals start to rise and that ERA start to drop a bit. He'll never be a big strikeout pitcher, though.

The Hook: Kennedy's a weak No. 3/strong No. 4 starter for most fantasy teams, and should go in the early teens.

Brazelton looks to be a mainstay in the Rays rotation for years, but he's got just one year of pro experience under his belt. After receiving a late call-up last season, the Rays will be forced to place the 22-year-old in the rotation primarily because they don't really have anyone else to start while he develops. While he has a solid mid-90's fastball and it's been said that he has hope to develop some nice breaking pitches, trial by fire isn't exactly what most fantasy owners are looking for. He should endure some growing pains this year, but should also have the occasional phenomenal start.

The Hook: He may be worth a late gamble, particularly in keeper leagues.

Nick Bierbrodt has always been discussed as a youngster with potential plus stuff, but has been an injury nightmare throughout his minor league career. After suffering through constant elbow problems early in his career, he finally looked ready to join the Rays rotation before last season. Unfortunately, he struggled so mightily with his control during Spring Training that he was sent back down to regain his composure. In June, he was shot twice outside of a fast food restaurant. Bierbrodt is expected to be ready to go this Spring, and will likely make the big club as a starter if he has his control in order.

The Hook: He's not really worth taking a chance on for a fantasy squad this season, but could be solid in keeper leagues.

Victor Zambrano converted from the bullpen to the rotation last year for his last eleven appearances, and appears to be the favorite for the No. 4 spot this year. The 27-year-old has a high-90's fastball which he complements with a wicked slider, and was fairly effective as a starter last season, going 4-4 down the stretch. He shouldn't be expected to keep anything better than a 4.5 ERA as a starter over a full season, and he shouldn't be counted on to win more than six or seven games. His strikeout totals after moving to the rotation last season were disappointing, at best, and his WHIP will kill a fantasy team.

The Hook: Avoid him.

Standridge was effective in AAA last season and looks to have the inside track on the fifth spot. After posting a 10-10 record with a 3.12 ERA in Durham, Standridge has accomplished about all he has to accomplish in the minors. His sinker is said to be major-league ready, and he has a quality low-90's fastball. That said, he shouldn't get enough strikeouts or wins to counter an ERA that won't translate too well in the majors.

The Hook: Look elsewhere.

Closers

Jesus Colome has been talked about as a guy who can hit 100+ on the radar gun and a closing candidate of the future for a few years now. Acquired from the A's a few years back, Colome may finally get his chance now that incumbent closer Esteban Yan has bolted for the Rangers. He has the potential to turn into a quality stopper in time, and will strike out his fair share of hitters. He doesn't look ready to close ballgames at the major league level, though, as he was ineffective in middle relief last season.

The Hook: There's still every reason to believe he's the closer of the future in Tampa, but let someone else take the chance on him for 2003.

The name Lance Carter seems to be pretty popular in Tampa. Admittedly, I don't know a whole lot about him aside from the fact that he's an older prospect (28) and went 12-2 out of the bullpen with a save at Durham last season. His ERA in the minors (2.80 in 132 innings) and in the majors (1.33 in 20 innings) suggest that he may be a good bet to close while Colome gets some more seasoning. While Carter doesn't appear to be a phenomenal strikeout pitcher, his strikeout to walk ratio in Durham (almost nine to one) indicate that he has excellent command of his pitches. Stay posted for updates in the near future or check in on our Devil Rays report.

The Hook: Carter will probably win the job out of Spring, and could be in line for 30 save opportunities. He's worth a late gamble.

Sleepers

Kennedy could be in line for a breakout season in his third year in the league. Many young players take a step back in their sophomore seasons, but Kennedy stayed around where he was. In his third year, look for him to adapt a bit better to opposing hitters and lower his ERA to the high-threes. Unfortunately, the offense doesn't do enough to help him to translate that into a whole lot of success in the win column.

Regardless of who wins the job out of Spring Training, look for the Rays to consider moving Colome to the closer's role if he starts out hot. At just 23, there's plenty of time for him to get his game on track, but the Rays have a tendency to prepare their players for future success by throwing them right into the fire.

Toronto Blue Jays

Projected Rotation

Roy Halladay, ***** Cory Lidle, ** Mark Hendrickson, * Justin Miller, * Tanyon Sturtze

Closer

Kelvim Escobar, **

Starters

Halladay officially joins another Roy as the best two starters that are 25 or under in the league. At 25, the 6-5 righty from Texas is already an ace, and should be dominant for years to come. Look for him to get a few more wins as the bullpen improves to help him close out games. Halladay's fastball has plenty of movement on it, and he continues to develop (pun intended) the hook as a second strikeout pitch.

The Hook: He won't catch people by surprise this year, and should go in the first five rounds.

Lidle came over in a trade with the A's, where he won 21 games in the last two years as the number five starter. While he'll take on a more prominent role in the Jays rotation, there's not a whole lot of room for growth. Primarily a control pitcher, he won't blow many fantasy owners away with his strikeout numbers, but it will keep his WHIP down. A solid high-three ERA can be expected of Lidle, along with 10-14 wins.

The Hook: Lidle's a solid gamble in the early teens. Now that he's out of Oakland, he's guaranteed a starting gig.

Hendrickson fits the profile of the big lefty perfectly. A former NBA player, Hendrickson is very imposing at 6-9, 235. While he's older for a prospect, Hendrickson still has room to add a few MPH to his fastball and develop another pitch to go along with it. He was effective in AAA and at the end of the season last year when he joined the rotation, going 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA down the stretch.

The Hook: Hendrickson's worth a late gamble as a guy with the potential for 10-12 wins with solid secondary numbers.

Justin Miller struggled early on last season, but eventually won a spot in the rotation down the stretch. All he did after cinching his spot was lock it up for this season, going 5-1 over his last eight starts. Considered the second best pitching prospect in the organization behind Halladay, he should join Halladay at the top of the rotation for years. Don't bank on him just yet, though.

The Hook: Miller seems to be another year or two away from a breakout season, but his stuff makes him worth a look in 2003.

Tanyon Sturtze chews up innings. While this is a great trait to have for some starters, it's not something you particularly want out of a guy like Sturtze. When all was said and done last season, Sturtze nearly lost twenty, allowed more runs than any pitcher in the AL, and led the league in both hits allowed and walks. All of that translates to a guy who will chew up 20% of the innings you can use with an ERA over 5.00 and a WHIP over 1.5.

The Hook: Avoid him, even in deep leagues.

Closers

Escobar is a solid middle-of-the-road closer who nearly came through with 40 saves last season despite his ERA over 4.00. While the save total (38) can justify that ERA as long as he's in a Toronto uniform and working the ninth, the typical ERA that fantasy owners should be looking for out of the bullpen is under (or close to) 3.00. So long as he's done with the rotation, Escobar can be counted on for more than a strikeout an inning. Rumors have been swirling around Toronto since the trade deadline last August that he won't be with the club too much longer, which would open the door for Cliff Politte to close.

The Hook: Escobar wouldn't be worth a high draft pick even if he wasn't always rumored to be traded to a team that he wouldn't close for. He's worth a late stab as the Jays closer... for now.

Sleepers

Lidle has a history of slow starts. He will be taken in most drafts, but don't be too surprised to see him out on the waiver wire some time in May. If there's room for him on your squad, don't be gunshy. Lidle's career ERA is 5.01 before the break and 3.01 after it, and 25 of his 33 career wins are also after the break.

Cliff Politte is expected to be the top setup man for the club, and would be in line for the closer's job if Escobar struggles, gets injured, or is traded. Politte brings good heat to the table, and held opposing hitters to a .184 average after joining the Jays in late May. Assuming that the obstacle of Escobar is removed, Politte could be in line for 20-30 saves.

Be sure to check back next week, when we'll go over the National League East from Monday through Wednesday.

Do you have any questions or comments about the column or the upcoming Major League Baseball Season? Want to know exactly when there's a new edition of "The Hook" posted throughout the season? Please e-mail me at royalcards@fantasyinfocentral.com

Article courtesy of Fantasy Information Central.