Playoff preview -- Falcons vs. Packers, weather will determine the game

The Green Bay Packers have never lost a playoff game at Lambeau Field. They are 11-0 in their history.

The Atlanta Falcons visited the Packers the first week of this season, and Green Bay won 37 -34 in overtime, in a game that was played in 90-degree heat.

In their playoff game this weekend, the forecast calls for snow and temperatures around 25 degrees. This weather forecast will change the strategy of the game and force both teams, which rely more on their great quarterbacks, to focus on their running games, something they are not used to doing.

The Packers are the kind of team that likes to pass first. However, they are also a good running team and if RB Ahman Green is healthy enough, he will be successful rushing against a Falcons' ground defense that gave up 127.9 yards each game. In addition, rookie RB Tony Fisher has proved he can do the job as well, and he just might be the kind of back Green Bay needs in this kind of situation.

Of course, it will also help if QB Brett Favre can open the defense a little with some passing. He is 35-0 when temperature is under 34 degrees, which is something he said he never thinks about, but opponents do, giving him a psychological edge.

If conditions are good enough to pass, Favre will do it, and Atlanta's defensive backs will have to play physical against the speedy Packers' receivers. Unfortunately, they will be without their go-to-guy Donald Driver, who is out with a shoulder injury. However, third-string WR Robert Ferguson, who showed he can make clutch catches in the cold in the game against Minnesota in week 14, will be a good stand in weapon.

On the other side, Atlanta's RB Warrick Dunn will have to find the holes through a Packers' rushing defense who let foes run for 124.9 yards a game.

What is important here is that the Falcons like to run to their left side between left tackle Bob Whitfiled, and left guard Travis Clardige, who will be facing right defensive end, Kabeer "KGB" Gbaja-Biamila on the other side of the line of scrimmage.

This matchup is the key to the Atlanta Falcons offense and Michael Vick passing chances. If the Falcons' offensive line wins the battle early, allowing Dunn to pick up good yardage running through that side, that will force Gbaja-Biamila to slow down his pass rush, which will allow Vick more time to see down field.

At the same time Gbaja-Biamila holds the key to stopping Vick on "passing plays," because he will be the one in charge of sealing the left side of the line where Vick usually runs or passes more than 50 percent of the time. That's why KGB must not over pursue Vick, or he will take off.

Momentum is important in the playoffs, and both teams suffered losses in their final game of the regular season. But, Atlanta's loss to the Cleveland Browns is far worse than Green Bay's loss to the New York Jets, who are playing like a Super Bowl team right now.

Even though the Packers are the favorites, this game calls for a close matchup of running backs if snow does not allow deep passing, or quarterbacks if the snow is not too bad. The key will be the weather, which will dictate the fate of the game.

I don't think Green Bays' defensive line has enough athleticism to stop Vick, and the Falcons might just have a chance to make NFL history and be the first team to beat the Packers in the playoffs at Lambeau Field.

Either way, I think a bet on the game is just too risky with Favre on one side and Vick on the other.