The Hook -- AL East Breakdown (Pt. II)

Spring Training is right around the corner and baseball fans are getting set for another great season. In the next few weeks, we'll begin previewing the pitching staffs for the 2003 MLB season. Today, we'll continue our look at the AL East. (To see Part 1, click here: AL East (Part 1).)

During our season previews, we will be accompanying players with ratings as to where they belong in a typical twelve team 5X5 rotisserie league draft with 25 rounds. The breakdowns will be as follows...

******, Rounds 1-3 *****, Rounds 4-6 ****, Rounds 7-10 ***, Rounds 11-15 **, Rounds 16-20 *, Rounds 21-25

No stars will be for players who are likely to (and should, in my opinion) go undrafted

AL East Breakdown (Part II)

Today, we continue our look at the AL East with a look at the two most powerful staffs in the division, the Yankees and the Red Sox. While the Sox may have the two best pitchers in the division in Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe, the Yankees have the deepest rotation in all of baseball, and have seven guys who would start on most teams in the league.

The Sox' No. 3, 4, and 5 starters are no slouches themselves, but their inability to sign or trade for another big-name hired gun was one of the most popular topics of discussion in the Hot Stove League.

Kenny Rogers still waits on the horizon as a legitimate number three starter who could be bought at a bargain basement price. Still, it appears that the Sox will head into Spring Training with their starting five virtually unchanged from the rotation that they used down the stretch.

Boston Red Sox

Projected Rotation

Pedro Martinez, ****** Derek Lowe, ***** Tim Wakefield, *** Casey Fossum, * John Burkett, *

Closers (Committee)

Alan Embree, ** Chad Fox, * Bob Howry Mike Timlin, *

Starters

All it takes is one word, and everyone knows who you're talking about. Pedro! Pedro Martinez remained surprisingly healthy last season and put forth what many believe should have been a Cy Young season. Though he lost out on the award to Oakland's Barry Zito, Martinez certainly made his fantasy owners sleep a little better last year, coming through with a 20-4 record, a 2.26 ERA, a .92 WHIP, and 239 strikeouts in 199.1 innings.

The Hook: Provided that manager Grady Little continues to keep Pedro's innings down, he will again be one of the top three starters in all of baseball, and likely won't last past the sixth overall pick.

Derek Lowe had an amazing breakthrough season as he stepped into the rotation in 2002, posting a 21-8 record with a 2.58 ERA and a .97 WHIP. He even threw a no-no against the Devil Rays and received a lot of well-deserved Cy Young consideration. Can he repeat this in 2003? With Pedro on board, Lowe sees a little less pressure than most fantasy aces and should have a solid follow-up season, but it may be interesting to see how much wear and tear he took last season when he threw 219.2 innings. A converted closer, Lowe still may not be used to coming back year after year and throwing so many pitches. Expect the ERA to stay somewhere around 3.00, and expect another 15-18 wins as Lowe solidifies his standing among fantasy owners.

The Hook: He should be gone somewhere around the fifth round, but may go as high as the third in some drafts.

Wakefield has been shuttled back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen for years, but seemed to have finally found a full-time job as a starter towards the end of last season. His last eleven appearances were starts, and he went 7-2 in that span, while allowing more than three runs only once. One of the few remaining knuckleballers in the majors, Wakefield is always tough to get a handle on for hitters who are used to seeing 90+ MPH fastballs.

The Hook: He usually posts solid secondary numbers and is as durable as they come, so he's worth a shot in the middle of the draft as the No. 3 starter on a team that should approach 90 wins.

Fossum should finally settle into a usual spot in the rotation this season. At just 24, he won himself a spot in the rotation late last year, and is one of very few true prospects that the Red Sox organization has right now. Fossum posted a 3.46 ERA last season in 106 innings, and actually struck out a little over a batter an inning when he was starting. Expect some potential struggles throughout April and May as the league gets a second look at him, but he should come around to put up a solid 10 win season with a mid-to-high 3.00 ERA.

He's a nice sleeper who could be stolen somewhere between rounds 15 and 20. He should be even stronger in the next few years, and could go higher in keeper leagues.

John Burkett's move back to the American League last season brought him back down to earth. After posting a career year (at the age of 36) in Atlanta during the 2001 campaign, Burkett bolted to the Sox as a free agent. While he added an extra win to his repertoire, his ERA jumped up a whole point and a half and he was very hittable. Burkett has had a few good seasons in his career, but it appears that he's on the downslide (unless he has another contract year in the near future).

The Hook: He's really not worthy of consideration unless you're in a deep league, but don't be too surprised when you hear his name called towards the end of your draft.

Closers (Committee)

Don't be too stunned when you see as many as three or four Red Sox relievers go on draft day, as GM Theo Epstein has pretty much admitted that he doesn't believe in a full-time closer being a necessity. Embree, Timlin, and Fox are the most likely candidates to close games, though Howry has some experience in that area.

The popular school of thought is that Embree, coming off of his best season in the league, will see a lot of the action. Most likely, he'll split time with one of the veteran right-handers that the club has brought in. Embree had a 2.03 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP last season to go along with 81 strikeouts in 62 innings. He fits the profile nicely, but has been extremely inconsistent over the course of his career, and has just six saves in eight seasons.

The Hook: Fantasy owners should always shy away from squads that close by committee until the late rounds. If there's a single guy that you want to gamble on in the Sox' closer fold, it should be Embree.

Mike Timlin closed with the Mariners and Orioles before reverting to a middle-relief spot with the Cardinals for a few seasons. Upon being traded to the Phillies late last year in the Scott Rolen deal, he settled in as a setup man for closer Jose Mesa. As the most experienced former right-handed closer on the Sox, he'd be a pretty safe bet to assume the role as their closer against righties, but he may not be worth much until the end of the draft, as Embree will steal half of his save opportunities.

The Hook: Take a look at Timlin late. At the very least, expect a fair share of holds from him in leagues that count them, and he should continue to post solid secondary numbers. His only nemesis is the long-ball.

Chad Fox was on the fast track to becoming a closer in Milwaukee last season before a rotator cuff injury cost him several months. When he returned, he wasn't nearly as effective as he was in 2001, and it's debatable whether or not he'll be ready to go at full strength this season.

The Hook: Expect a save opportunity to fall into his lap here or there, but let someone else take the chance on him.

Sleepers

Fossum could be an excellent sleeper if he develops ahead of schedule. He'll pitch towards the back of the rotation, and has potential to strike out a batter an inning. If he can keep his ERA around where it was last season, he could easily be looking at double digits in wins.

Bob Howry could also fit into the closer's mix. Provided he can keep runners off base, Howry has experience in the role (28 saves in 1999 with the White Sox) and seemed to come back strong after a shaky start to last season.

New York Yankees

Projected Rotation

Mike Mussina, **** Roger Clemens, *** Andy Pettitte, *** David Wells, ** Jose Contreras, ***

Closer

Mariano Rivera, ****

Sleepers

Steve Karsay, ** Jeff Weaver, ** Chris Hammond, *

Starters

Strange things are afoot at the Circle K. While Mike Mussina posted his worst ERA since 1996, he also posted his third best season in terms of wins (ironically, tied for first was 1996). Mussina's ERA jumped over four for the first time in six seasons last year, and it seems that he's lost a little on his fastball. His strikeout totals dipped under 200 for the first time in three years as well, which could be an alarming trend. That said, he still has what it takes to be a dominant hurler for any fantasy rotation, and came on strong towards the end of last season, giving up just one earned run in his last four regular season starts. The Hook: Moose is the only guy worthy of this distinction on the Yanks at this point, and may be gone within the first five to seven rounds. At 34, he's far from over the hill.

Roger Clemens will turn 41 during this season, and the effects of his aging process showed a bit last year. While The Rocket still posted 13 wins and struck out over a batter an inning last year, his ERA skyrocketed to 4.35 in a year where the league average was improving. His bulldog mentality suggests that he's not quite done yet, and he should post similar numbers to last season. Look for anywhere from 10-12 wins and a low-to-mid 4.00 ERA with almost 200 strikeouts.

The Hook: He's a solid pick in the early teens, but may go as high as the tenth round in many drafts simply because of name recognition.

Andy Pettitte proved last year that his best years may still be ahead of him. After slumping from 1998-2000, Pettitte started to regain his form in 2001 before posting his second best statistical season last year. Pettitte's 3.27 ERA would be welcome on just about any fantasy rotation, and his 13 wins in 22 starts didn't hurt much either. The biggest issues to look at surrounding Pettitte from a fantasy perspective are his strikeouts and WHIP. His 1.31 WHIP last season was one of the best he's had in his career, but is no better than middle of the road as fantasy starters go. While a knock on Pettitte has been that he's tried to hard lately to be a power pitcher, he'll never really emerge as one. Expect him to top off this year at 150 strikeouts, which knocks his status down a bit in most drafts.

The Hook: Pettitte's a solid pickup anywhere after the tenth round.

Boomer just keeps coming back for more. Wells will turn 40 in May, but is coming off of his best year since 1998. His strikeout totals are always pretty much average, but he usually keeps a low WHIP and chews up innings. While you shouldn't look for him to duplicate his 19 wins from last year, he's a lock for 10 to 15. The biggest issue with Wells is his ERA and injury history. He managed to bring the ERA back into the stratosphere last season, shaving 0.72 from his 2001 ERA, but his career ERA remains over 4.00. A solid mid-to-low 4.00 ERA can probably be expected of him, but at his age, it's anybody's guess.

The Hook: Wells will probably go in the first fifteen rounds, but is a more realistic pick towards the end of the draft.

Jose Contreras is the name on everyone's lips. The 31 (well... somewhere under 50, probably) year old right-handed Cuban defector was signed in late December to a four year, $32 million deal. As was the buzz with many Latino players last season, expect his true age to come out at some point during 2003 or 2004. All the reports on him say that he has a good major league heater, a quality curve, and a decent change. If he can keep his control over here in the bigs, Contreras could be a big winner. The biggest question may be how Contreras will adapt to facing major league hitters every five days, as he's primarily played only in the Cuban League and against amateur hitters in the Olympics. A high 3.00 ERA would be as realistic a hypothesis as I could make, meaning 10-15 wins in pinstripes. He fared well against the Orioles lineup a few years ago, fanning double digits, and may approach about 200 strikeouts.

The Hook: All in all, count on him as a fantasy No. 2 or No. 3, leaving him until the latter half of the first ten rounds and the early teens. He may go higher in a lot of leagues, though.

Closers

Rivera has been the ultimate closer in the majors for years, and it will be interesting to see how he recovers from his shoulder strain last season, which cost him a month. His numbers ended up in their normal range when he was healthy, as he came through with a high 2.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP while closing out 28 games (his pace would have left him just shy of 40 saves). Rivera isn't a conventional closer who will strike out well over a batter an inning, but his secondary numbers are good enough to warrant him being the first closer selected in most drafts.

The Hook: Knock him down half a notch because of his first real battle with injuries last season, but don't be afraid to go after him around the fifth round if he's still available.

Sleepers

Jeff Weaver is arguably the best pitcher that this team has, but won't likely crack the rotation out of Spring Training. With other more expensive and experienced options set to be the starting five, Weaver will likely start the year out of the bullpen and need an injury to get his shot. The 26-year-old former Tigers ace struggled initially after being acquired in a three-way deal with the A's, but has the stuff to become an ace in pinstripes in the next season or two. Unfortunately, struggling on a team with this many talented starters meant a move to the bullpen last season. With the aged arms in the Yanks rotation, he should be able to get enough chances to spell the rest of the staff to warrant a late pick.

Steve Karsay figures to be the primary right-handed setup man for Rivera this season, and always posts solid numbers out of the pen. He won't bring down your team WHIP as much as many other setup men can, but he typically strikes out a batter an inning with a high-two to low-three ERA. Throw in the fact that Rivera's coming off of an injury-plagued season, and he's worth a gamble as a guy who could steal a handful of saves (12 last year).

Chris Hammond produced one of the more amazing statistical anomalies in the history of the game last season. A 36-year-old career journeyman with an ERA over five, Hammond turned it around with an incredible season which saw him post an ERA under one. His .95 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are feats that can't be counted on to be duplicated, but he should fill in nicely as the top lefty in the Yanks bullpen. In leagues with holds, he'll approach 20. In leagues without them, he's still worth a late gamble as a guy who could strike out a batter an inning and keep a mid-two ERA with solid WHIP.

Be sure to check back tomorrow when we complete our AL East Preview with the Blue Jays and Devil Rays.

Article courtesy of Fantasy Information Central.