The Hook -- AL East Breakdown (Pt. 1)

Spring Training is right around the corner and baseball fans are getting set for another great season. In the next few articles, we'll start previewing every team in MLB. Today we'll look at the AL East.

Note: During our season previews, we will be giving players ratings as to where they belong in a typical twelve team 5X5 rotisserie league draft with 25 rounds. The ratings will be as follows...

******, Rounds 1-3 *****, Rounds 4-6 ****, Rounds 7-10 ***, Rounds 11-15 **, Rounds 16-20 *, Rounds 21-25

No stars will be given to players who are, (and should, in my opinion) go undrafted.

Starters

Pedro Martinez, ****** Roy Halladay, ***** Derek Lowe, ***** Mike Mussina, **** Rodrigo Lopez, **** Andy Pettitte, *** Roger Clemens, *** Jose Contreras, *** Joe Kennedy, *** Tim Wakefield, *** Sidney Ponson, *** David Wells, ** Omar Daal, ** Cory Lidle, ** Casey Fossum, * Mark Hendrickson, * Jason Johnson, * Dewon Brazelton, * John Burkett, * Pat Hentgen, * Justin Miller, * Nick Bierbrodt, * Tanyon Sturtze Jason Standridge Victor Zambrano

Closers

Mariano Rivera, **** Jorge Julio, *** Alan Embree, ** Kelvim Escobar, ** Mike Timlin, * Lance Carter, * Jesus Colome, * Chad Fox, * Bob Howry

Sleepers

Jeff Weaver, ** Buddy Groom, ** Steve Karsay, ** Chris Hammond, * John Stephens

AL East Breakdown (Part I)

The American League East has a few elite pitchers who should go high, with the bulk of the pitching lying in New York and Boston. While a few of the other clubs have one potentially dominant hurler, they have very little depth.

Honestly, the toughest rotation to crack may be the Yankees, since three solid starters are probably going to be left out in the cold as long relievers. With such proven veterans as Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and David Wells, the other four starters have little room for error. Sterling Hitchcock is the only real lock to miss out on a rotation spot, and should be on his way out. Cuban defector Jose Contreras will certainly be thrown into the rotation after The Boss went out and signed him to a huge contract. All that this means, in the long haul, is that the only pitcher that the Yankees have who is (or could be) an ace will most likely be riding the pine in the bullpen, hoping for a chance to prove himself. We'll get into that a bit more later...

The Red Sox boast one of the better one-two punches in all of baseball, as Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe finished second and third, respectively, in Cy Young balloting in 2002. Despite their failure to acquire Bartolo Colon in the offseason, the situation looks bright, with all five starters returning from a staff that finished third in the American League last year in ERA. Youngster Casey Fossum could eventually develop into a great number three starter, and Tim Wakefield provides a fantastic change of pace from just about any hurler in the majors. John Burkett fills out a rotation that went a combined 70-29 last season.

Last season, Roy Halladay seemed like living proof that if a tree falls in a forest and nobody's around to hear it, it did, indeed, still make a sound. An early offseason deal with the A's brought Corey Lidle in to support him in the rotation, but after Lidle, there are nothing but question marks. Second year former NBA player Mark Hendrickson will try and build on a strong rookie season from the number three hole, while Justin Miller and Tanyon Sturtze look to fill out the back end of a Blue Jays rotation that's strong at the top, but has little depth.

Like Halladay, Orioles rookie hurler Rodrigo Lopez flourished atop Baltimore's rotation last season, but had little support behind him. The depth should improve a bit this year, but don't expect great strides. Sidney Ponson is hitting a contract year, but has never come close to living up to his potential early on in his career. Free-Agent signee Omar Daal will give the team its first left-handed starter since Jimmy Key in 1998, but is far from a dominant force. Pat Hentgen gives the team a former Cy Young winner who has been plagued by injury the past two seasons, but, at 34, can he come back from Tommy John surgery?

The Devil Rays have just one pitcher who has truly been a starter for a full season, and ace Joe Kennedy is still only 23 himself. The potential that Kennedy, Nick Bierbrodt, and Dewon Brazelton bring to the table is encouraging, but not for the 2003 season. Kennedy may finally get over the hump himself, but no other starter that the Rays have is worth taking a gamble on in the first fifteen to twenty rounds.

Baltimore Orioles

Projected rotation

Rodrigo Lopez, **** Omar Daal, ** Sidney Ponson, *** Jason Johnson, * Pat Hentgen, *

Closers

Jorge Julio, ***

Starters

Lopez was arguably the surprise pitcher in the majors last season. After signing him to a minor league contract in February, the O's didn't expect much out of the 26-year old right-hander. Lopez started the season out of the bullpen, but impressed enough over his five outings to earn a shot at a rotation spot. He didn't look back, eventually becoming the ace of a pretty shaky rotation. His 15-9 record was indicative of how he pitched... cool, calm, and collective, as he finished the season with a solid 3.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP.

The Hook: Lopez is just entering his prime at 27 years of age, and should be fun to watch as he tries to duplicate last season. Expect similar numbers, and look for Lopez to go towards the end of the first ten rounds.

The word "potential" has been bandied about Sidney Ponson for years, but it's never really come to fruition. He still has the bulldog mentality that could lead to him becoming a successful starter in the league, and his secondary numbers actually show that he was one of the more improved pitchers in the league last season. Despite going just 7-9 last season, Ponson posted career bests in ERA (4.09... previous best was 4.71) and WHIP (1.34... previous best was 1.38). His strikeout numbers continue to disappoint, but he chews up a lot of solid innings.

The Hook: Provided he can start keeping the ball in the park, Ponson could be poised to finally break out in his sixth season in the majors, and may be a steal around round 13 or 14.

Omar Daal may struggle a bit as he leaves the friendly confines of Los Angeles to pitch in more hitter-friendly Camden Yards, but he should still post his typical low 4.00 ERA along with a solid WHIP. After a 4-19 2000 campaign with the Diamondbacks, he's come back strong by going 24-16 in the last two years. While he didn't see a whole lot of support to help him to his eleven wins last season, he may see even less in Baltimore, and that could spell trouble. Daal will, at the very least, be a change of pace for opponents, as he's the first lefty in the O's rotation since 1998.

The Hook: He's a solid late pick, but may go somewhere between rounds fifteen and twenty.

Johnson and Hentgen (along with another rotation candidate, Scott Erickson) are both coming off of injury-plagued, mediocre seasons. Both could easily surprise this season if they're at 100 percent, but neither is worth anything more than a late flyer. Johnson looked ready to bust out last season, as he was just entering his prime, and was coming off of his best season in the majors (10-12, 4.09 ERA, 1.38 WHIP... eerie... those are Ponson numbers). He started slowly however, losing five of his first seven starts while suffering a finger injury. Johnson never really seemed to recover, posting mediocre start after mediocre start the rest of the way as he finished 5-14 with a 4.59 ERA. His strikeout numbers aren't good enough to warrant a roster spot either, but if he can put last year behind him, he could still develop into a decent number five fantasy starter in time.

The Hook: Johnson probably isn't worth your time unless you're in a deep AL-Only league.

Hentgen will be taking a stab at returning from Tommy John Surgery this season, and has the pedigree to be a solid fantasy starter if he's really 100 percent. A former Cy Young winner with the Blue Jays, Hentgen watched his numbers blow up from 1998-2000, but seemed to be ready to settle down in his first season with the Orioles (2001). Back in the AL East, Hentgen was dominant in posting a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP until blowing out his elbow in late May. He attempted to come back late last season, but was extremely disappointing, going 0-4 with a gaudy 7.77 ERA.

The Hook: If healthy, he could surprise, and he won't likely go unless there's nobody else left that can help.

Closer

Jorge Julio remains the most intriguing pitcher on this staff, even if he is dependent upon the rest of the club to get it to him. After going 5-6 with 25 saves and a 1.99 ERA in his first full season, the sky's the limit for the 24-year-old. As he develops a bit, look for his strikeouts to increase and his walks to decrease. While he won't likely see more than 35 save chances, he should convert most of them, and is a quality pick after the top ten closers or so are gone.

The Hook: Project him as a mid-round pick (anywhere after the first ten rounds), but bump him up in keeper leagues.

Sleepers

John Stephens should also be in the mix for the final rotation spot, and if Erickson or Hentgen show effects of their past injuries, is a good bet to be the number five. Stephens has always been described as a guy who doesn't really have the stuff to succeed in the majors, but has overachieved at every level, and that's not to be overlooked. While his trial in the big leagues last season was extremely disappointing (2-5, 6.09 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), Stephens is the type of pitcher who should actually do better his second time through the league, as he makes great adjustments.

Buddy Groom is extremely effective in leagues with holds, and his secondary numbers warrant keeping him around even in leagues without them. Groom followed up a strong 2001 campaign by posting a phenomenal 1.60 ERA out of the pen and allowed less than a baserunner an inning. His 48 strikeouts in 62 innings aren't exactly what you'd hope for out of a bullpen guy, but you should be able to live with it if he even approaches duplicating his other 2002 numbers.

Check back tomorrow for the continuation of this article, as we preview the Red Sox and Yankees staffs.

Article courtesy of Fantasy Information Central.