New Orleans May Lose 80% of Its Black People, Says Katrina Study

New Orleans could lose 80% of its African American population in the wake of Hurricane Katrina unless there is a special effort to help poor people return to the city, says a report on the storm's impact.

The study, based on satellite maps of New Orleans and the nearby coast and census data, confirms what many residents suspected: Katrina inflicted disproportionate damage on poor neighbourhoods with high unemployment and a high number of renters. These people were unlikely to have home insurance or the necessary resources to return and rebuild.

In the city of New Orleans, three-quarters of the 354,000 people who lived in the areas worst damaged by the storm were African American, and 29.2% were poor, the study found. Nearly 53% were renting and did not own their own home. More than 10% were unemployed.

"The danger in the current thinking about rebuilding is that it specifically excludes important elements of the population whose neighbourhoods were destroyed, and who won't find a place in the future city. Disproportionately that means people who were African American and below the average income of the city," John Logan, a sociologist at Brown University, Rhode Island, and author of the study, told the Guardian.

People living in public housing are said to have even less chance to return to their city. The local authorities have closed all public housing in the affected areas. The study says: "If the future city were limited to the population previously living in zones undamaged by Katrina it would risk losing about 50% of its white residents, but more than 80% of its black population. This is why the continuing question about the hurricane is this: whose city will be rebuilt?"

African Americans have already voiced fears that the new city to emerge from the wreckage of Katrina will bear little resemblance to the New Orleans of old - specifically that it will no longer have a black majority.

The city's mayor, Ray Nagin, recognised those fears earlier this month when he pledged that he would rebuild New Orleans as a "chocolate city". However, his rebuilding plan also contributed to the population shift now under way locally. Mr Nagin called for a four-month moratorium on rebuilding in the worst-affected areas - a move that critics say favours the wealthier districts.

"So far, the planning effort is focused on rebuilding in areas that are predominately white and more affluent," Professor Logan pointed out.