Cautious Voters Turn Back to Steady Kerry

John Kerry entered today's New Hampshire primary election in a dominant position, having opened up a wide lead in the pre-ballot polls by portraying himself as the Democrats' safest choice to challenge President Bush.

Most daily tracking polls showed the Massachusetts senator with a double-digit lead over Howard Dean. One survey, in the Boston Globe, put the margin as wide as 20%.

But officials in the Kerry and Dean campaigns warned yesterday that New Hampshire voters were notoriously unpredictable, and pointed to another poll that showed the race tightening rapidly, as Mr Dean recovered from his disastrous performance in Iowa.

Meanwhile, a close fight was developing for third place, spurred by the conventional wisdom that there would be only three "tickets" out of New Hampshire. The campaigns of anyone finishing below third have usually not survived.

Senator John Edwards continued to draw big crowds and acclaim for his ability as an orator. Most polls showed him challenging General Wesley Clark for the third spot, with Senator Joe Lieberman's campaign showing signs of a resuscitation.

Conscious of New Hampshire's history, Mr Kerry was taking no chances, hiring a helicopter to reach all 10 counties in a final campaign blitz.

Like an understanding husband, he welcomed back errant Democrats who had once left to flirt with more exciting candidates such as Mr Dean and Gen Clark but were now returning to his steady virtues.

In a school gym in Nashua, the senator stood on the stage in a sensible checked shirt, nodding at the applause of supporters grateful that he was still there for them.

The turnaround has been extraordinary. When the race began a year ago, Senator Kerry was considered a favourite, but he was eclipsed by the excitement generated by the Dean and Clark campaigns.

Only a month ago, he was trailing badly in New Hampshire and around the country, dismissed as a dull old-school Democratic baron - a rich politician from the cosmopolitan north-east with a history of congressional compromise.

For now at least, those very qualities are back in style.

Joan Robinson, a Nashua Democrat, said she had been a Clark supporter but had "found out more than I wanted to about him." She had read about his quarrels with other US generals over the Balkans and had not been impressed by his dismissive reference to Mr Kerry's junior officer status in Vietnam.

"One of the biggest mistakes was to talk down to him as a lieutenant," she said.

Meanwhile, the senator's congressional record now looked more valuable, the more she thought about a showdown with the president.

"Kerry has the ability to work with a very complicated congress. He's thoughtful and contemplative," she said.

On the stage, backed by his friend Senator Edward Kennedy, Mr Kerry was trying to project more aggressive traits of the kind Mr Dean has made popular in this primary race. He said the president "had run the most arrogant, inept ideological foreign policy in the history of this country" and promised he would "send George Bush back to Texas so we can say to the world 'mission accomplished'".

The Dean campaign has accused Mr Kerry and other centrists of stealing its candidate's clothes. Karen Hicks, the former governor's campaign manager here, said: "The other candidates have tried on change like a suit, but the only candidate with a real record of change is Governor Dean."

The Dean camp last night talked up a poll by Zogby International that showed Mr Kerry barely ahead with 31%, compared with 28% for Mr Dean. But half a dozen other surveys showed a much wider lead. John Zogby, who conducted the rogue survey, said: "New Hampshire is a minefield to poll, but I do have a very good record of predicting the primary results."

Most surveys showed more than 10% of New Hampshire likely primary voters had not made up their minds. The state has a reputation for last-minute decisions and registered independents - who can vote if they register as Democrats for the day - are always a wild card.