Super Bowl preview -- The Bucs offense is the key

The last time the Tampa Bay Buccaneers faced the Oakland Raiders they lost 45-0 in Oakland at the Network Associates Coliseum. It was December 19th, 1999 and Jon Gruden was coaching the Raiders.

Now Gruden is Tampa Bay's coach, and both teams meet again on Sunday in Super Bowl XXXVII, or "Gruden Bowl I," as some have begun to call it.

The Oakland Raiders are now coached by Bill Callahan, whose pass-happy philosophy has made the Silver-and-Black the most effective offense in the league. At the Super Bowl they will face the No. 1 over-all defense in the league, which is led by Tampa's defensive coordinator, Monte Kiffin.

Much has been said about this match-up, but let's break it down a little.

In their two playoffs game, Oakland has played as they did all season -- passing first to set up the run. However, a huge tendency to run has been unveiled when running back Charlie Garner lines up directly behind QB Rich Gannon. Look for the Raiders to probably run more than usual to keep Tampa Bay's defensive line delayed a couple of seconds from jumping to put pressure on Gannon. That will be their main task Sunday night.

If Tampa's Warren Sapp and Simeon Rice are able to get to Gannon early in the game, Oakland's passing game will be disrupted, which will make the job easier for the Bucs' secondary. But if the Raiders pass protection stays strong, it will be up to the Bucs' aerial defense to shutdown Oakland's receivers.

The Silver-and-Black usually brings out three wide receivers formations with Jerry Porter lined up in the slot. He will match-up against Ronde Barber, who plays inside in Tampa Bay's nickel package. Porter is a fast and accurate rout-runner, but sometimes struggles to get enough separation from defensive players. I think that might be the case against Barber, who is faster than him. However, Porter is 6'2" and Barber is only 5'10", which should give Oakland an edge in that match-up.

Meanwhile, Tampa's third-string cornerback Dwight Smith will have to take care of Jerry Rice, and Brian Kelly will line-up in front of Tim Brown. In both cases, Oakland's receivers are taller, but the Buccaneers' secondary is faster, so Gannon will have to be extremely accurate on his passes. I think if he puts his passes high, his receivers will have more opportunities to catch them against the shorter Tampa Bay ball hawks, which also will be a good way to minimize turnovers.

The only problem is that with high passes the Raiders' receivers might not have enough room to work after the catch, and a very important part of Oakland's passing attack will be shutdown.

Screen passes, also known by the Raiders as "running-plays," should be more effective to their left side, away from where Derrick Brooks is lined up.

The Raiders will be able to move the ball, but slower than they are used to doing, and they should score at least two touchdowns.

However, with all of the talk about the Raiders' offense against the Bucs' defense this week, I think the key to the game has been overlooked, and that is -- can Tampa's offense, which is led by QB Brad Johnson, move the ball against Oakland's defense? Can the Buccaneers score?

First of all I think both of these units are underrated due to the spectacular play of their teammates on the other side of the ball.

Tampa Bay doesn't have a "big-show" offense, but its effectiveness has been really good in the playoffs, not only scoring and completing crucial plays when they have needed it, but also controlling the clock and keeping the opposing offense off the field, something they must do against the Raiders.

Meanwhile, Oakland's defensive squad has been forcing turnovers effectively, and has allowed just under 300 yards per game in the post-season.

Gruden will keep working his balanced attack philosophy this weekend, trying to pass as much run. Setting up the rushing game will be a priority in the game plan because Tampa's receivers are significantly slower than the Raiders' secondary.

I would expect the Bucs to run a lot of short routes to the sidelines, and some posts down the middle with tight end Ken Dilger, while RBs Michael Pittman or Mike Alstott try to grab the attention of the Oakland linebackers to Johnson more time to scan the field for an open receiver.

Running the ball is not supposed to be easy against the Raiders down the middle, but that has been the most attacked spot by opponents during the post season. Teams have been finding room by following their center and left guards, and luckily for Tampa Bay, that is exactly the place where they have been rushing best in the playoffs.

The Buccaneer's running committee of Alstott and Pittman have been rushing enough yards through the middle to control the clock and open up the passing game, and I would expect them to attack Oakland there as well. However, I would not rule out some sweeps to the outside where the Raiders run stopping is supposed to be more vulnerable.

Tampa Bay's offense should score at least two or three touchdowns in this game to stay close to Oakland's high scoring machine.

It's going to be a close game, with a field goal possibly deciding the winner.

For the first time I am going to bet on a result:

Tampa bay 30, Oakland 28.