Right's Poll Victory Set to Redraw Map of Canada

Thierry St Cyr stood on the factory floor deep in conversation with young voters. Amid the bone-jarring thunder of machinery, the talk was of a new nation in North America. ‘How much will it cost?’ asked one man in French. ‘What about passports? Will we have to get a new one?’ another queried.

St Cyr patiently explained his point of view. His party, the Bloc Quebecois, wants the mostly French-speaking province of Quebec to break away from Canada. He wants an independent Quebec with its own government and army. ‘It is simple. Those taxes you pay now will just stay in Quebec,’ he told them. ‘They won’t keep going to Canada.’

Tomorrow Canadians vote in a federal election that could change the face of the nation. If the Bloc does well enough, some fear - and others hope - Canada will be on the path to splitting up. In a referendum a decade ago Quebec voted by a razor-thin margin to stay in the federation. For the first time since, separation is back on the agenda.

Canadians, used to a staid form of politics that rarely catches the international eye, are in tumultuous times. Not only is Quebec nationalism back on the march, but a breakaway movement has formed in western Canada, eager to capitalize on rich oil discoveries there. And the country is poised to swing to the right by electing a man many see as a Canadian version of President George W Bush.

Conservative Stephen Harper is almost certain to replace Liberal Paul Martin as prime minister. Harper is hawkish on Iraq, skeptical of Kyoto, and wants Canada to co-operate in the US ballistic missile shield. He is also culturally conservative, being critical of gay marriage and abortion rights.

The only real question is: how much will he win by? The Conservatives have been playing to huge rallies across the country. Liberal support has collapsed almost everywhere. The Conservatives are poised to end 13 years of Liberal rule by replacing a party in which an official once called Bush ‘a moron’, with an ideological bedfellow of the White House.

So dominant has Harper been in the campaign’s final week that he has played down his lead, fearing over-confidence could keep voters away. He has sought to reassure Canadians that a Liberal-controlled Senate will probably keep him from acting out all his right-wing policies. Political commentators are stunned. ‘Up is down. Black is white. Hello is goodbye. Night is day,’ wrote Christie Blatchford, a columnist for the Toronto Globe & Mail. ‘We have wandered into the Canadian version of Bizarro World.’

To cap it all the election has been fought with extremely non-Canadian bitterness. Liberal attack ads have even suggested that under Harper’s rule Canadian cities would be subject to military occupation. ‘Canadian cities. Soldiers with guns. In our cities,’ a voice-over intoned.

The aggressive tactics have backfired. Even in Quebec, Conservative support has leapt. It is not necessarily bad news for the Bloc. Harper has promised more authority to Quebec, including diplomatic representation at such world bodies as Unesco, in an attempt to defuse secession demands. The Bloc, however, sees it as the first step to a referendum.

Certainly the Bloc is aiming at a record election performance. More than 50 per cent in Quebec will be seen as a mandate to push for a new vote on separation. In the last election it got 48 per cent, and is widely expected to better that.

The Bloc has been boosted by a series of scandals, especially revelations that the Liberals illegally funneled cash to a pro-Canada lobbying group during the last referendum on Quebec’s future. ‘The Liberal scandals have really hurt them, especially as it was about the issue that really matters in Quebec,’ said Professor Eric Belanger, a political scientist at McGill University, Montreal.

The Bloc’s domestic platform is mostly far to the left of the Conservatives. With a right-wing federal government in place, many Quebec residents are likely to feel more alienated from English-speaking Canada.

Certainly, Quebec already feels like a very different place. In Montreal the language of the streets is overwhelmingly French. The Francophone atmosphere has blossomed as the city has welcomed immigrants. Many young Asian and black Quebeckers speak French. At the factory St Cyr toured, most of the workers being trained for new jobs were from immigrant backgrounds. All spoke French.

It is a far cry from the birth of Quebec nationalism back in the Sixties when the main goal was preserving French language and identity. That battle was won. Now the Bloc is aggressively courting the immigrant vote, fielding racially diverse candidates. ‘In the Sixties we were talking about saving the future of Francophone Canada. It is so different now,’ said Professor Jules Duchastel, a sociologist at the Universite du Quebec in Montreal.

Some think outright independence will never happen. Others believe the issue will not go away without a new vote, and expect one within a few years.

That is what St Cyr hopes for. Outside the factory snow and ice carpeted the frozen streets. Inside, as he wound up his talks with a group of welders, sparks were still flying. ‘We are a nation, we just don’t have our own country yet,’ he said.