Just win, baby -- Super Bowl preview

By Brad Oremland Sports Central Columnist

Five Quick Hits

* I am already so tired of seeing Warren Sapp's and Jon Gruden's faces, and now I will be bombarded by them all week.

* Cris Collinsworth was great at the beginning of the year, but he's been going downhill all season, and it showed in the NFC Championship game. He should slim down the hype for big-name guys, it would be nice to let Troy Aikman get a few more words in while he's at it.

* I liked that Nike commercial with the naked fan on the soccer pitch, and it was even better the second time, but by the third time, it was starting to bug me. I hope they pull it after the Super Bowl while it's still at the top of its game.

* If you had to name one Tampa Bay player who really made the difference against Philadelphia, who would it be? I keep coming up with Joe Jurevicius, but he only had that one catch. That was a team win all around.

* I never thought the Raiders would enter a Super Bowl as the classier team, but that's definitely the case this year. I give Al Davis the edge over the Glazer sons, too.

Divisional Roundups

Buccaneers vs. Eagles

I watched this game in a room full of Eagles fans, even though I was less than an hour away from Tampa at the time. Go figure. When Philadelphia scored on their first possession, after Brian Mitchell's monster kick return, I thought the game was over. Last week I wrote: "If either team gets a big play early, especially from defense or special teams, and takes an early lead, that's the team that will win." That's exactly what happened on Sunday, and the Eagles blew it anyway.

Chalk part of it up to overconfidence. I think the Eagles were stunned when Tampa didn't roll over and die after that first possession. Of all the factors that decided the game, I think the biggest was that the Eagles were completely -- completely --- outcoached. They never had an answer for Tampa's offense, and they were woefully ineffective when they had the ball. Their inability to adapt was especially surprising.

Most of the room disagreed with me, but I thought Andy Reid should have pulled Donovan McNabb and put in Koy Detmer or A.J. Feeley. Sometimes, great players have bad days, and the Eagles had already shown they could win with their backups. McNabb struggled through an awful afternoon, averaging less than five yards per pass attempt and committing three turnovers. Duce Staley was actually fairly effective, especially early in the third quarter, but as time started to run down, Philadelphia abandoned the run, playing directly into their opponent's hands.

The bottom line, though, is that the Bucs were prepared for this game and the Eagles were not.

Titans vs. Raiders

I didn't get to see all of this game, but I saw enough. The Raiders do the same thing every week on offense, and no one can seem to stop it. There are just too many excellent players to contain the Gnat Attack devised by offensive coordinator Marc Trestman. The defense, simply put, is good enough. This is the opposite of the 2000 Ravens model, but it's even more deadly.

The game was clearly an offensive shootout, and the Titans never had a chance going up against the Raiders in that kind of contest. If you look at the statistics, Steve McNair (21-36, 194 yds, 1 TD) and Eddie George (15-67) actually had pretty good games, but the Raiders mopped up a very decent Tennessee defense and made it look almost easy. Rich Gannon threw three TD passes and ran for another. Charlie Garner averaged better than five yards per carry and was one of four Oakland players with more than 50 receiving yards. Gannon didn't get sacked all game.

Tennessee didn't lose because it's a bad team; the Titans lost because the Raiders are the best team the NFL has seen since at least 1998-99.

The Crystal Ball

Super Bowl XXXVII: Buccaneers vs. Raiders San Diego, California

An intriguing matchup, and not because of the stupid "Chucky Bowl" thing. The league's top offense and top defense square off in this game, and both teams have been at the top of their respective games throughout the postseason. Oakland's challenge on offense will be accounting for the sheer greatness of the defense it will be working against.

I think you'll see a lot of three-receiver sets (which the Raiders use a lot anyway) so that someone other than Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly will have to cover one of the Raiders' receivers. Leave Jerry Porter on a scrub, and he'll beat you for big plays down the field. Cover Porter with your top guy, and Jerry Rice or Tim Brown will get 10 catches and 100 yards. The Bucs are one of the few teams with linebackers who can cover Garner out of the backfield, but Derrick Brooks is too valuable to shadow Garner on every play, and sooner or later, he'll take a short catch down the field for a big gain.

Tampa's challenge on defense will fall largely on third cornerback Dwight Smith, and whoever ends up covering Garner on passing plays. The key battle, though, will take place in the trenches. I think the Bucs need to sack Gannon at least twice to have a chance in this game, and they can't let Garner get into a groove. If he breaks a couple of long runs, or Oakland mixes things up with Tyrone Wheatley and he makes a big play, containing the Raiders will go from difficult to almost impossible. Shutting down the run will be essential for Tampa; they need to keep the Raiders one-dimensional and give Smith help from the safeties.

When the Bucs are trying to move the ball, Brad Johnson will be key. If he has a bad game, his team loses -- simple as that. Assuming Johnson brings his "A" game (or at least a "B"), he'll have to pick on the Oakland secondary, which has been battling injuries all season. Charles Woodson, if he's healthy, will probably stay on Keyshawn Johnson most of the time, so Keenan McCardell or Joe Jurevicius (or maybe even TE Ken Dilger) will have to step up and make some catches. Mike Alstott needs to get the ball early and often, and I'd throw him a couple of quick screens or swing passes in the first half in addition to the usual runs off center. If Johnson throws two or more touchdown passes and doesn't have any turnovers, Tampa Bay has a good chance.

On defense, the Raiders' top priority has to be shutting down the run. If they force the Bucs to pass a lot, and keep them out of third-and-short situations, Tampa Bay will be in for a long day. The 71-yard play to Jurevicius against the Eagles was a killer, but I think the Raiders are better off playing aggressive, shut-down defense and risking the big play than they are giving up a lot of room underneath and letting the Buc receivers get into the game. The defensive line has to be ready for a challenge and play big.

The special teams battle leans Oakland's way, but I don't see special teams deciding this game. I think the Raiders will win, and I don't think it will be close.

Article courtesy of Sports Central.