Super Bowl preview

By Brad Oremland Sports Central Columnist

Five Quick Hits

* Am I the only one who thinks Greg Gumbel and Phil Simms have absolutely no chemistry? In fact, at least once a game I get the impression that they really dislike each other. And these are the guys doing this year's Super Bowl? Neither of them is a particularly good commentator to begin with.

* Whose idea was it to have Walt Coleman, of "tuck rule" infamy, work a playoff game in New England? His crew did a poor job, by the way. Where were they on that delay of game in the second half?

* FOX debuted its top crew on September 8, 2002. Cris Collinsworth was good then, and he's still good now. Troy Aikman keeps getting better. Joe Buck has been getting worse, and now I feel like every game he hits a new low. He's still better than Gumbel, but that's not saying much.

* FOX still can't get us good camera work this postseason. Terrible alternate angles on kickoffs, and shots of players walking back to the huddle after plays that cry out for a replay.

* I still can't do the Johnnie Morton touchdown snake, but I have perfected the Kris Jenkins sack celebration.

The Colts fell apart in dramatic fashion this weekend, but I stand by everything I wrote about Peyton Manning last week. Barring a Joe Theismann-esque injury in the next year or two, Manning will make the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility.

Speaking of the Hall of Fame, this year's finalists have been announced. John Elway and Barry Sanders are the only locks, although the Seniors candidate usually gets strong support, and I think Bob Hayes, in particular, has a good chance of finally making it (offensive tackle Bob Brown is also a Seniors candidate this year). This is the first time the Hall has allowed two Senior finalists, and I think the voters would be wise to consider re-writing an unofficial rule, as well.

The voters traditionally tend not to elect more than one player per position per year, especially at the offensive "skill" positions: QB, RB, WR, and TE. The last time more than one skill player of the same position was inducted in a year was 1994, when Tony Dorsett was elected in his first year of eligibility and Leroy Kelly made it as the Seniors candidate. The last year two skill players from the same position made it, with neither being the Seniors candidate, was 1985, when Joe Namath and Roger Staubach were elected.

This year, Hayes and Art Monk are both strong WR candidates. Hayes and Monk both belong in the Hall, and neither one should be turned away simply because the other is also a finalist. If you want my prediction -- and you are reading this column -- Hayes will make it and Monk will be denied for the fourth time.

Championship Game Roundups

AFC: Colts at Patriots

The Colts/Patriots rematch in Foxborough on Sunday probably should have been the best game of the season. Some people were calling it the true Super Bowl, like they used to for the NFC Championship Game in the late '80s and early '90s. The Patriots, the best team in the NFL during the regular season, were going up against the red-hot Colts, whose offense was performing at a mind-boggling level.

And then the game actually started, and the Patriots dominated it. They dominated from start to finish, and the score doesn't reflect the extent to which New England controlled the game.

But. But the Colts were never out of it. The offense is so explosive that even against Bill Belichick's defense -- or is it Romeo Crennel's? -- it was always capable of putting together a couple of quick strikes and getting back in the game. If they could do it at Tampa Bay (back when the Bucs were still trying), why couldn't they do it against New England?

Sometimes when a game particularly interests you, or if something just doesn't make sense, you should take a look at the team statistics. See if something jumps out at you. Here's what jumped out at me from the Colts/Pats contest:

* The turnovers. This one's obvious, and I thought I'd get it out of the way.

* Field goals. New England was 5-for-5. The Colts didn't even try one. That's probably because they kept turning the ball over when they got close enough to kick.

* Rushing. Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes (Is it really pronounced "Dominique", like Gumbel always says? If you know, please tell me.) averaged more yards per carry than New England's RBs, Antowain Smith and Kevin Faulk. I'm going somewhere with this later, so keep it in mind.

* Sacks. Tom Brady got hit a couple of times, but never when he had the ball. Manning got sacked four times.

* Net yards per pass play. Brady, playing an extremely cautious game, averaged 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Manning, including his four sacks, averaged only 4.1 yards per pass play. In his first two games this postseason, that average was nearly three times as high: 11.7. During the regular season, Manning's average was an exceptional 7.1.

This one interested me so much that I broke it down quarter-by-quarter. First: 5 passes for 38 yards (7.6), Second: 7 for 50 (7.1), Third: 7 for 9 (1.3), Fourth: 28 for 140 (5.0). In the first half, Manning threw 12 passes for 88 yards, a 7.3 average -- better than Brady (6.4). In the second half, he tossed it up 35 times and gained only 149 yards, a 4.3 average. Throw in three second half sacks, and the Colts averaged only 3.4 yards per pass play in the second half.

Manning has always had one of the same problems Brett Favre does: he tries to do it all. Both quarterbacks are so phenomenally talented that they frequently get away with it, as Manning did against Tampa in Week 5, but other times, they fail spectacularly. That's what happened to Manning in the second half on Sunday. He saw his team down by 15 and decided to win it by himself. The result was, well, the result. Patriots 24, Colts 14.

I also wonder, though, what happened at halftime. What were the Colts saying in their locker room? Did they feel like they were still in it? What did Tony Dungy say? Did he and offensive coordinator Tom Moore tell Manning to come out throwing?

Perhaps even more interesting: what did Belichick and Crennel say to their guys? Did they make any adjustments? It seems like they must have. And of course, Indianapolis played into their hands by abandoning the run. Manning runs playaction better than anyone else in the league, and when the Patriots could stop respecting his run-fakes and audibles at the line, it created huge problems for the passing game.

The Colts were able to run the ball, and Manning moved the team downfield. The first half turnovers -- Manning's INTs, Marvin Harrison's fumble, and the bad snap that Hunter Smith kicked out of the endzone for a safety -- were enormously damaging to Indy's chances. But they mostly kept points off the board. New England's offense got scores without much help from turnovers.

Manning's first interception was in New England's end zone. The second one was also in Patriots' territory. Harrison's fumble was in the red zone. If you think Manning and Dungy were the only culprits in Indy's loss, take a long look at the Colts' defense. Brady dropped back 37 times -- 38, actually, since he also had a scramble -- and never got sacked.

I actually thought New England's offensive game plan was terrible. There were a few notably bad calls (Larry Centers on 3rd-and-1?), but throughout the game, the Pats ran a vanilla offense. Five wideouts used to mean Warren Moon throwing 20 yards downfield for either an interception or a huge gain. On Sunday, it meant Brady throwing the ball five yards past the line of scrimmage.

They never stretched the field. The Colts should have been able to stop that. New England had five pass plays go for more than 15 yards, but none of them was thrown more than 15 yards downfield. Those were all yards after the catch.

Indy's offense played a bad game, especially when the team was already behind in the second half, but as I noted above, it was able to move the ball. If the Colts hadn't needed to play catch-up in the second half, Indianapolis might well have won. The Indy defense was the one that was noticeably outmatched.

NFC: Panthers at Eagles

See above. Just substitute "Carolina Panthers" for "New England Patriots," and use "Philadelphia Eagles" instead of "Indianapolis Colts."

The Eagles moved the ball. But the Panthers' defense kept making plays (4 sacks, 4 interceptions). In New England, though, Manning got shaken up and tried to do too much. In Philadelphia, Andy Reid's wide receivers got checked at the line and didn't try hard enough. Except for Freddie Mitchell.

Even though his team will be home in February, Mitchell had a great postseason. I'm not just thinking of 4th-and-26 here, or of his nice catches against Carolina. I never noticed it during the regular season, but Mitchell has become of the NFL's better blocking WRs, and he showed it against Green Bay last week and again on Sunday night.

The other Eagles player who had a great night was Duce Staley. He averaged more than six yards per carry against one of the league's best defenses, and he caught four passes for another 33 yards. It's kind of surprising that he didn't see the ball more, as the Panthers never seemed to have an answer for him.

Everyone else on the offense, though, seemed to let Philadelphia down. The offensive line had trouble keeping Panthers off their quarterbacks. The Eagles' coaches and players -- I'm not sure where to lay the most blame -- never seemed to adjust to Carolina's blitzing. Todd Pinkston, James Thrash, and Staley all made bad plays that resulted in interceptions. The defense couldn't tackle. Nate Wayne, who had a very good regular season, looked awful in both of Philly's postseason games.

FOX's announcing crew went out of their way to praise Andy Reid, who has been a fantastic regular-season coach for the Eagles, but after this Sunday's loss, Philly fans have to be wondering whether Reid is capable of taking them to the Super Bowl. For the second year in a row, Reid got outcoached at home in the NFC Championship Game, and his team lost a contest it should have won. I wouldn't fire Reid or anyone on his staff, but there's no excuse for the way the Eagles have done in their last game each of the past two seasons.

I think one especially questionable call was asking the injured McNabb to pass with only 15 seconds remaining in the first half. I would have sent Donovan -- or maybe even Koy Detmer -- out there to take a knee and run out the clock. Instead, McNabb got hit again. A terrible decision, and one I can't understand at all.

On the other side of things, the Panthers deserve a ton of credit. A ton. I had them 16th in my power rankings at the end of the regular season. I picked against them in St. Louis and Philadelphia. In fact, I still think the Rams and Eagles are better than the Panthers. But they've been terrific this postseason, in all three games.

John Fox and his staff have done a masterful job. The defense has done everything it's been asked to, except for a short stretch at the end of regulation against the Rams. Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad have really stepped up for the playoffs. The offensive line has given Jake Delhomme time. Delhomme has been a Brady clone, all clutch and collected. Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster have been a quality running tandem out of the backfield.

The team is performing at peak level -- it can't be any better than it has been -- and Fox has to be the man responsible. Not even Bill Belichick has done better for his team this postseason.

There are two plays in particular that I wanted to mention from Sunday's victory over the Eagles. One was Foster's third-quarter touchdown run: How Not To Give Up. Another was a seemingly routine play a few minutes later, with 1:09 left in the quarter. On 3rd-and-7, the Eagles sent a blitz and Delhomme looked to his left to throw a screen to Foster. He was covered, and Delhomme floated the ball well over his head and out of bounds. It's exactly what you're supposed to do, but most guys in the NFL don't do it any more. I thought it was the best play Delhomme made all game, and I don't mean that as an insult to the rest of his game.

Finally, a lot of fans are wondering this week whether the Eagles would have won if Donovan McNabb hadn't gotten hurt on a late hit by Greg Favors. If I really had to guess, I would say no. But it's a good question.

The Crystal Ball

Super Bowl XXXVIII: Panthers vs. Patriots Houston, Texas

I've been picking against Carolina for two weeks now, so I'm not sure how trustworthy I am. But I think the Patriots will win this one pretty easily.

The Panthers just aren't good enough to beat New England. Carolina has been overachieving for weeks, and Mike Martz and Andy Reid both got outcoached at home in games their teams could have won. Bill Belichick won't let that happen, especially with two weeks to prepare.

New England's defense will contain the Carolina rushing game and dare Delhomme to beat Ty Law one-on-one. Carolina has surprised a lot of people with its potentially explosive offense this postseason, and I wouldn't be surprised if Steve Smith or Muhsin Muhammad breaks a long play that gets the Panthers on the board, but they won't be able to do it consistently, and if they try, New England will start coming up with sacks and interceptions.

The Patriots will be surprised by how good Carolina's defense is -- everyone else has been -- but will create plays by stretching the field vertically and horizontally. They'll get the edge in field position because their defense will do more against the Panther offense than the Carolina defense will do against Charlie Weis' offense.

Unlike most teams, though, New England can keep up with the Panthers on special teams. Punter Ken Walter is no one's All-Pro, but Bethel Johnson and Troy Brown are good returners, the Pats are good in coverage, and there's no kicker I'd rather have in the Super Bowl than Adam Vinatieri.

For the Panthers to win, they'll have to force turnovers -- at least two -- and get to Brady early and often: at least two sacks, and some other big hits after he gets rid of the ball, too. They'll need to be really good in the red zone, on offense and defense, because the difference between field goals and touchdowns could easily decide this game. On offense, Davis and Foster will need to combine for at least 80 yards -- probably more -- and the team will need to get a couple of long plays. I'm thinking 30+ yards here.

I think the Patriots will win with defense, frustrating Fox's attempts to run the ball, and then harassing Delhomme with blitzers and weird coverages. Delhomme's been tough to rattle this postseason, but he's always gotten help from his running game, and I think that will be tough to come by in Houston. The Patriots will also need to do well in the red zone, and they can't let the Panthers beat them with special teams.

Bill Belichick should preach patience to his team, especially Brady, who doesn't need to be the hero. If he just plays the way he did two years ago, New England will win. Carolina's offense is going to have a lot of trouble, and the Patriots will find their plays here and there.

Patriots 20, Panthers 10

Article courtesy of Sports Central.