Carolina Holds Key to the White House

At the top of Columbia's Main Street, the Confederate flag flutters in front of the state Capitol building. For black Americans the banner symbolises racism and slavery, but South Carolina's governor refuses to remove it. For the eight Democratic presidential hopefuls, all pinning their White House hopes on winning this state, the flag is proof that things are done differently in the Deep South.

'That flag is a travesty in this modern day,' said Dwight James, local executive president of the black civil rights group the National Association for the Advancement of Coloured People.

None of the Democratic Party's candidates can afford to avoid South Carolina. Votes in Iowa this week and New Hampshire next week dominate the headlines, but here is the true test of who will win and who will lose.

South Carolina is the first Southern state to vote. Winning it could unlock the rest of the South. It is also the moment when race enters the political equation. Iowa and New Hampshire are lily-white states with tiny minority populations. In South Carolina blacks make up about 40 per cent of the Democratic vote. The state goes to the polls on 3 February - Super Tuesday - along with Missouri, Arizona, New Mexico, Delaware and Oklahoma. From that bloodbath a Democratic leader is almost certain to emerge.

Howard Dean has seen long leads in Iowa and New Hampshire start to slip. With close votes likely in those states, South Carolina has become even more crucial, certainly for Dean. If he comes here with his frontrunner's crown intact, he will need a decisive vote to prove that he can generate mass appeal. But his brand of north-eastern practical liberalism holds little appeal for South Carolinians.

For whites, this is a state still mourning the death of arch-segregationist senator Strom Thurmond. For blacks, it is where the Bible rules and Dean's record on abortion and gay marriage does not impress.

Race is seen as Dean's biggest potential weakness. Rivals have attacked him for having no minorities in his cabinets when he governed Vermont. Last week firebrand black preacher Al Sharpton left Dean flummoxed after raising the point on a televised debate. Dean has also muddied things by making a backfiring comment about wanting to attract poor whites with Confederate flags on their trucks, while making much of having black room-mates at Yale - which cuts little ice with poor blacks.

Dean's anti-war stance, which has propelled his campaign, is also unlikely to garner much support. Like much of the South, this state is pro-military. In Charleston last week an anti-war protest was able to attract just a single demonstrator.

At a Democratic Party meeting in Columbia, few black Americans voiced support for Dean. Marjorie Johnson, an influential Democrat in the city, could not bring herself to do so: 'I don't know why. It is just a gut feeling.'

Experts agree. The South distrusts outsiders, especially 'Yankees', and Dean, a white liberal doctor from Vermont, is as Yankee as they come. But he has sought to address the issue. His endorsement by Al Gore was held in Harlem, the unofficial capital of black America. He has racked up high-profile black backers, including former rival candidate Carol Moseley Braun.

He has also started to speak about his faith. Some say that Dean's Confederate flag gaffe was unfairly misinterpreted. Sitting in his Charleston office in front of a picture of a black Christ, Pastor Joseph Darby, an outspoken black churchman, is one: ' He was trying to say poor people of all colours should vote together. That is unlikely. The legacy of slavery and Civil War hangs thick in the air.'

Darby recalls attending a summer camp where he tried to befriend a poor white boy. 'He refused. He said, "I may be poor, but at least I'm white". That attitude is still out there.'

Republicans have gradually made the South a stronghold - South Carolina's Republican governor, Mark Sanford, was elected in 2002 and already has $1.1m in the kitty for his 2004 re-election campaign - leading many to wonder if any Democrat can win the White House without having strong Southern ties. The last two Democratic Presidents, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, were both Southerners. Senator John Edwards, another candidate, was born in the state. His Southern drawl is perfect and he looks every inch a Clinton-esque figure.

For Dick Gephardt, South Carolina could also be fruitful. The state has lost thousands of jobs and Gephardt's support among unions is strong. Retired General Wesley Clark is also looking to play up his Southern roots. Polls show an even split between Dean, Edwards, Gephardt and Clark.

Yet no matter who wins here, the racial divides that govern the state's politics are unlikely to heal. Dean's vision of appealing to poor whites and blacks alike is as far away as ever. Charleston police chief Reuben Greenberg recently spoke on the problem of black-on-black shootings. 'I refuse to take responsibility every time one black son of a bitch kills another,' he said. Amid uproar from blacks, Mayor Joe Riley backed his comments.

'South Carolina is an "interesting" place,' Darby said 'Many people here think the Civil War has not ended. There's just been a cessation of hostilities.'