Projecting the Field

Now that college football season has ended (albeit not without a measure of controversy), college sports fans can now shift their attention to basketball season. As teams begin to sprint into, or in some cases slowly crawl into the second portion of the college basketball season, it is time to take an early look at a possible NCAA field. I am not an expert "bracketologist." I do know what RPI is, but usually, on Selection Sunday, I am just as surprised as most fans when I view the big board that ESPN and CBS put up. At times, it can be disheartening to look at what the committee in Indianapolis has done, and it can be sad watching the bubbles of strong NCAA teams burst.

A used (and possibly overused) buzzword in college athletics is "parity." Parity has reached college basketball, to some extent. With the number of upsets that occurred during the first stretch of the season, the balance of power has appeared to have shifted. The Pac-10, Big Ten and Big XII conferences are allegedly experiencing down years, and the ACC is having a surprisingly strong season before their conference gets watered-down with the additions of University of Miami (FL) and Virginia Tech next season.

However, the most surprising conference of the year may be another league that will not look like it looks today in a couple of years. Conference USA has six and maybe even seven teams that could be tournament worthy this year, which would be quite a coup for a mid-major conference. That may not be the case in March, but only time will tell.

The tournament field is made up of 65 teams (31 conference champions and 34 at-large bids.) I arrived at my projections by utilizing team records (in and out of conference), standings within conference, and the team's RPI (ratings percentage index.) For more information on the RPI, or to view your team's RPI, visit collegerpi.com.

These rankings do not involve seedings; we will not project seedings until March. This list will just feature the conference name, and my early projections of who will make the tournament from those conferences (number in parentheses indicates the number of teams from a conference projected to make it.) Teams are listed in alphabetical order:

ACC (6): Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Wake Forest

America East: Boston University

Atlantic Ten (3): Dayton, St. Joseph University, Xavier University

Atlantic Sun: Central Florida

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech

Big East (4): Connecticut, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse

Big Sky: Montana State

Big South: High Point

Big Ten (5): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Purdue, Wisconsin

Big West: Utah State

Colonial Athletic Association: Old Dominion

Conference USA (5): Alabama-Birmingham, Charlotte, Cincinnati, Louisville, Marquette

Horizon: Wisconsin-Green Bay

Ivy: Pennsylvania

Metro Atlantic: Manhattan

Mid-American Conference (4): Kent State, Miami (OH), Toledo, Western Michigan

Mid Continent: Oral Roberts

Mid Eastern: Delaware State

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Southern Illinois

Mountain West (2): Air Force, Utah

Northeast: Monmouth (NJ)

Ohio Valley: Austin Peay

Pac-10 (3): Arizona, Stanford, UCLA

Patriot League: Lafayette

SEC (5): Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee

Southern: College of Charleston

Southland: Northwestern State

Southwestern Athletic: Mississippi Valley State University

Sun Belt: New Orleans

Western Athletic: Fresno State

West Coast: Gonzaga