Iran, Russia And China: An Analysis

Iran's intransigence in the face of EU and U.S. disapproval over its breaking of the seals on its nuclear facilities has created a highly volatile situation for the Western world. The current President in Iran is a demagogue and a madman-Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. According to Debka intelligence from inside Iran, they are only a couple of weeks away from having weapons grade material. Here is a quote from Debka:

"But the Iranians clearly don’t give a hoot about their EU-3 negotiating partners, the IAEA, the Americans or the Israelis. Because they have used the time afforded them by sterile diplomacy to manipulate their way to their objectives, as DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources reveal:

1. Thousands of P2 and P1 type centrifuges, developed under cover of the two-year purported suspension, can go into action free of international curbs. The IAEA statement said uranium hexafluoride, a uranium gas - can be fed into cascades of centrifuges to produce low-level nuclear fuel or weapons-grade material. This can happen within a week or two.

2. The intelligence consensus reaching our sources is that within six weeks to two months, the centrifuges will have produced enough enriched uranium to build a single nuclear weapon. Tehran has reached this point of no-return with no real opposition.

The Islamic Republic’s rulers are fairly sure Moscow and Beijing will veto Security Council sanctions..."

What we do next, in how we respond to this crisis, will either rebuild our credibility as a superpower, or destroy it utterly. With Russia and China heavily committed economically to Tehran, and both countries relying heavily on Iranian energy supplies, it's doubtful they will wholeheartedly, if at all, agree to sanctions. Iran is after all, the 4th largest producer of crude oil in the world. Which means we must avoid the increasing comments about the possibility of military action, and attempt to force the E.U. to start taking some responsibility in dealing with Iran.

The U.N. which has proven obstructive to U.S. military interests and beset by recent scandals, will hopefully this time, cooperate fully as a body to enact swift and reasoned sanctions against Iran. The United States must be seen by N.A.T.O. as a voice of reason and considered restraint. There are extremely good rationales for why this should be.

First - Russia: Vladmir Putin has proven to be untrustworthy. In his own country, he has stripped freedoms systematically from his people, and has acted against E.U. and U.S. interests over and over again. He has brokered deals with Iran, after promising this Administration he would not do so. The new found amicability between the U.S. and Russia is rapidly reaching subzero temperatures. In short, we must ask ourselves can Putin be relied upon to keep his word, should he agree to a joint resolution in the U.N.? Given his recent behavior, don't count on it.

China: With its millions of people, it desperately needs the gas and petroleum Iran can and does provide, along with trade between the two countries. The wild card in the deck, it is very difficult to assess how China may react to any request concerning sanctions. China has at times surprised everyone by siding with many UN sanctions, at others outright refusing them. But this is a country that is still undergoing many positive changes internally. I think this may place some weight toward China at least trying to be more cooperative than Russia over this issue.

Since September 11th, the U.S. has been drawn into two theatres of war-Afghanistan and Iraq. In both arenas, we have military troops engaged in continued and often highly lethal skirmishes with soldiers of the "jihadists" Because of this, we have become reactive, rather than proactive, which any good general knows is not a good thing. Some experts believe much of this is designed to keep us engaged and off balance, while Iran ploughs on with its agenda. In addition to severely erode our military forces.

Iran has long been known to be the primary support for terrorism throughout the region. It has not only funded them, but provided training, arms and shelter for the likes of Hezbollah, Hamas and Al Qaeda. Though clear links to the 9-11 attacks are not known, it has been long suspected, along with Saudi, of playing a major role in the planning and funding. Iran hid its nuclear capabilities for more than 20 years, Once it was discovered, they simply went deep underground and kept on developing their nuclear program. Which clearly is much further advanced then anyone is comfortable with.

The young people of Iran feel very differently from the madman illegally elected as President. They want more freedoms, and I believe, they will get them. Already there has been a major attempt on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and an unfortunate aircrash, in which the elite Republican Guard in charge of Iran's nuclear program were killed.

If there is a bright ray of hope in this situation, it comes from Iran and its own idealistic young people. Many of you will be surprised to learn that the majority of Iranians are pro-American. They overthrew King Reza Pahlevi, it is to be hoped they throw out the prevailing government and finally find a form of freedom all Iranians can live with.

Which is why it is imperative that we remain a background player in this current scenario. We have to write Senators like John Bayh, who are already publicly saying we may need to use military force, and ask that we try not to become engaged militarily with Iran.

We also must make it crystal clear to anyone leaking about possible covert ops in the region, that the penalties will be swift and severe. I would hope the press will, during this crisis, TRY and maintain some sense of decency and respect towards our need to keep some things private for the national good.

President Bush once said something about winning the hearts and minds of a people in the region. I sincerely believe, given the pro-American stance amongst ordinary Iranians, and the virulent anti-American stance in other areas of this region, we must be very prudent. Let the E.U. and the U.N. deal with this issue, showing our enemies, we're neither stupid nor interested in world domination. And that we are tired of cleaning up other people's messes, and after we do the job for them, we get globally criticized for our imperialistic behavior. Maybe then we can return to caring for America first.

Iran's key nuclear sites
There are two Pressurised Water Reactors at the site - one reportedly near completion.