Warning of Bird Flu Epidemic in Turkey

The UN warned yesterday that the bird flu crisis in Turkey could become an epidemic and that neighboring countries were at risk. In its most pessimistic assessment so far, the UN’s food agency said the disease could spread unless more preventive measures were taken.

"The highly pathogenic avian flu influenza virus H5N1 could become endemic in Turkey," Juan Lubroth, health officer for the UN’s food and agriculture organization, warned.

He added: "Far more human and animal exposure to the virus will occur if strict containment does not isolate all known and unknown locations where the virus is currently present."

Neighboring countries such as Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iraq and Iran should be on high alert, he added.

There were, however, other, less gloomy assessments of the threat. Turkey’s government insisted that - with more than 300,000 birds culled - the crisis was under control. "We are not experiencing an epidemic," said Recep Akdag, Turkey’s health minister. The World Health Organization said there was no reason to panic and no conclusions about the disease had been reached.

The World Bank is to press rich nations for millions of pounds in an attempt to eradicate bird flu from poultry before it triggers a worldwide pandemic. Officials are to seek donations at an international pledging conference on avian and human influenza in Beijing next week.

The money has been earmarked to help poor nations carry out mass cullings and set up compensation packages as an incentive for farmers to report outbreaks. Millions of dollars will be channeled into vaccination programs across China and other countries across Asia where the virus is rife

So far 15 confirmed cases of the lethal H5N1 strain of the disease have been detected in Turkey - most in the east of the country, where the virus appeared two weeks ago. The majority of victims have been children, who appear to have got the disease after playing with sick chickens.

"I came home from school and my chicken was ill. It had gone blind. I felt sorry for it and gave it a hug," Summeye Mamuk, eight, said yesterday. Summeye is one of four children confirmed as having H5N1 on the pediatric ward of the university hospital in Van, the eastern town badly affected by the outbreak. Two other children probably had the disease, and 22 others were suspected of having it, the unit’s director, Ahmet Faik Oner, told the Guardian.

He added: "They all played with poultry or were in close contact with it. It’s a big problem because people in this area have a close relationship with chickens. We expect the virus to go on for another 15-30 days. Then it will finish." Asked whether he thought Turkey was doing enough to deal with the problem, he said: "They can solve it, yes." All visitors to the highly contagious ward had to wear white suits and face masks.

Three children from the same family - Mehmet Ali Kocyigit, 14, Fatma, 15, and Hulya, 11 - died on the ward last week, the first confirmed victims of H5N1 outside East Asia. Health officials have launched a massive cull of domestic poultry across eastern Anatolia. But their efforts have been criticized as inadequate. The cull also ignores the problem of migratory birds.