WIll US Involvement in Afghanisthan Work?

One of Barrack Obama’s main campaign themes - and his major grouse against the Bush Administration – is that the Republicans took their eye off the ball in Afghanistan, by concentrating on Iraq. There is a certain measure of truth to this. However, the greater reality is more complicated. Assume that Obama does become President and he does focus on Afghanistan. Is he going to earn the undying gratitude of the Afghan people; and eliminate terrorism? I doubt it. America will continue to be a marginal player in influencing Afghan politics; at least for the present. It just hasn’t been there long enough.

For the last two centuries, it has been Afghanistan’s misfortune to be an unwilling pawn in the Great Game. In the modern day edition, the former imperial powers, Britain and Russia, have been replaced by Pakistan and India.

It is an open secret that Pakistan is not only sheltering the Taliban within its borders, but also providing succour and small arms. This has been publicly declared by the Prime Minister of Afghanistan himself. Not surprisingly, Musharraf alternately issues a flat denial or reluctantly admits to the presence of scattered remnants in areas of Pakistan outside his full control. The latter excuse has been hard to swallow from someone who publicly boasted in television interviews that if a President does not have total control over his country and its people, he does not deserve to be a leader. It may be more plausible now, when Musharaf’s power is likely to be seriously curtailed.

Pakistan has always regarded Afghanistan as coming within its exclusive sphere of influence; and the good general cannot stomach the sight of the Karzai government cozying up to its arch rival, India. India, on its part, is only too happy to keep the pot boiling. The Taliban is presently the only ace up Musharraf’s sleeve and one can be sure he is not going to squander it.

It surely cannot have escaped the attention of the United States that, till now, its much vaunted "ally" in the war on terror was concentrating exclusively on Al Qaeda. One rarely heard of any Taliban getting eliminated within its borders. Whatever may be the public perception of the intellectual capabilities of George Bush, it is universally accepted that his Secretary of State is smart as a whip. She cannot be blind to the ground realities. Yet, apart from occasional warnings from minor officials, one encounters only deafening silence from the ‘champion of freedom’ regarding a development that has the potential to reverse all of America’s recent gains in this region – not to mention the expenditure of billions of dollars and several American lives lost. It is unlikely that the situation will change dramatically in the post-Musharaf era. Pakistan democratic parties have come to power, partly by promising the Pakistani people that they would drastically curtail America’s interference in their country’s affairs.

Maybe the United States is playing a great game of its own. One can only hope the lone superpower realizes what the stakes are and the consequences of losing.