The Somali Piracy Epiphenomenon and the United Nations

Many preparations have been made in order to "convince" diplomacies and establishments to interfere in Somalia; having failed to deal with Afghanistan and Iraq, the outgoing Bush administration (with one Iraqi shoe on their face) may attempt to offer another case of chaos and confusion to the worldwide community, namely a military enterprise against the Somali pirates. Nothing would spread chaos throughout Eastern Africa more easily than this paranoia.

There Cannot Be a War against the Somali Pirates

There cannot be a war against the Somali pirates, simply because there are no Somali pirates; in fact, young Somali fishermen played recently the role of pirates because of the bribery involved, the promises made, and the assurances given to them.

The earlier sporadic phenomenon turned out lately to be a daily enterprise because of the risen income of the pirates’ mentors who are gullible enough not to understand who their interlocutors are, when they are dealing with covered agents of Western powers and establishments that have completely different interests and pursue efforts to implement agendas that neither the fishermen – pirates nor their mentors (and otherwise local mafia bosses) could ever imagine.

Attack against Pirates is War against Somalia

A land – air – sea battle in Somalia, be it undertaken under the auspices of the UN or led by any sort of "alliance of the willing", will be an all-out war against the Somali society, the Somali people, and the Somali nation. None will be able to "catch" the pirates because – with the exception of those on board (and with a certain bloodshed) – they will all appear without their mask of pirate, as mere fishermen.

An aggressive attack against a village or town, any "precision operation", will simply end up as war against the local population, and will subsequently trigger a massive exodus that will spread chaos in the North (the fake pseudo-state of Somaliland) and strengthen the South.

Expected Massive Exodus

In fact, it is very easy to anticipate what a land – air – sea battle will be; it will be directed against Puntland, another fake pseudo-state in Central and Northeastern Somalia. There isn’t going to be any attack in Kismayu, Merka or Mogadishu in the South, and there will be no attack against Berbera in the Northwest.

As the piracy epiphenomenon of the Somali Civil and Liberation War has taken place in the lands controlled by the Puntland administration, which based at Garowe is closely linked with the TFG pseudo-president Abdullahi Yusuf, the attack – if any – will shake the otherwise weak foundations of the pseudo-state, and will trigger a dramatic increase of the IDPs in Somalia.

When Somalis from the Puntland territory will move to the South, their radicalization will be the consequence of their loss of homeland; the erstwhile fishermen – pirates will easily turn to Shebab fighters. With little effort they will expand their activities in Kenya where local Somalis and Oromos will offer them safe heaven, and instability will spread throughout Kenya.

When Somalis from the Puntland territory will move to the Northwest, the collapse of the weak and already shaken structures of Somaliland is to be anticipated.

Chaos, Termination and Restart of the Piracy

With their effort to end up the fake phenomenon of Somali piracy, the UN (or US)-led allies will spread total chaos throughout Somalia, while devastating the breakaway territory of Puntland. They may momentarily stop the phenomenon and liberate the hostages, but they will immediately find themselves in front of a ‘make-or-break’ position.

The situation could easily degenerate into a clash of the UN (or US)-led allies with the Shebab and ARS; if this comes to happen, and with the defeated Abyssinian "army" out of Somalia, it will be logical to assume that the allies will support the cooperating TFG prime minister and the Djibouti-based ARS leader. This will discredit terribly the latter who still is the only to have some popular support among those who can oppose the further radicalization of the Somali society.

With the TFG shattered down, and the moderates discredited, the radicalization will advance further pulling the Asmara-based ARS leadership to positions very close to those currently defended by the Shebab. Worse, the overall undertaking will be perceived by the outright majority of the Somalis as an advanced step taken against their country’s pacification, re-habilitation, and prosperity; this automatically will play the game of the most radical groups of the Shebab, who have not yet made their visions known to all.

This development would have no way out, as it would take more than 100000 soldiers to control Somalia (that would resemble Iraq in that case), and it is highly unlikely to assume that the international community, which was so reluctant to send peace-keeping force soldiers in 2007 and 2008, would be ready for the task.

The only "solution" in that case would follow the already known pattern of arming warlords and mafias against one another and/or the various liberation fronts. This situation created the piracy as epiphenomenon; so, in that case, after an entire mobilization at the global level, the end result would be the re-appearance of the piracy at a later date….

The international community would in such a case have acted openly against Somalia, and in the end, the overall effort would prove to be ‘too much ado for nothing’.

Many economic, political, military and environmental observers have realized that the only way for the Somali piracy epiphenomenon to disappear is the rise of a central government – fully and accurately reflecting all Somalis’ political and ideological convictions and expectations. This must be formed without delay, and Constituent Assembly elections have to be held.

Can Russia and China Offer a Solution?

Instead of pursuing illusions of the worst sort with respect to Somalia, the international community should talk common sense. The question is to what extent Russia and China have been deceived by the paranoid anti-Somali propaganda of the colonial powers and thus pulled to the idea of a military intervention against the non existing Somali pirates.

The admission of the following concepts would be a mistake of monumental dimensions for Russia’s and China’s interests in Africa:

1. Somali piracy exists per se.

2. Somali piracy can be terminated by means of a military intervention.

3. A UN-led military intervention in Somalia can have a positive exit (contrarily to what happens nowadays in Afghanistan and Iraq).

4. A final solution can be achieved by bypassing the main opposition wings, ARS and Shebab.

Beijing and Moscow can save the world from a third Afghanistan by arranging an extraordinary meeting at the premises of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization with the following Somali leaders: Sharif Ahmed, Hassan Dahir Aweys, Hassan Abdullah Turki, and Mukhtar Robow.

This meeting would not only end in an auspicious development in Somalia, subsequently triggering the termination of the Somalia piracy, but it would also enhance greatly the two Asiatic powers’ relationship with the Islamic world.

Note
Picture: A terrible Somali pirate and his hostage; at times, the hostage may change, but the pirate remains always the same. From: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_pictures/6987178.stm