The Days, the Hours, and the Moments of Somalia

These days are extremely critical for Somalia; anti-Somali forces took advantage of the open, much advertised, disagreement within the Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS), and are currently working to either turn the Djibouti Agreement to their favor or to cancel it whatsoever.

In politics there are no good and bad agreements or treaties; there are only signed pieces of paper that astute leadership turns to their benefit and other signed pieces of paper that finally turn against those who were expected to benefit the most. Thanks to posterior political maneuvers, diplomats can totally change the nature of a signed paper.

In the same way there is no good and bad agreement, there is no peace and war. Many wars have been truly peaceful moments if compared with periods of apparent but not true peace.

Imagining that what one cannot get in peace is achievable through war is either naivety or diplomatic insufficiency. What one would call as 'peace' is not necessarily 'peace', except the signatory parts finally view it as such. It can be – and for both parts of ARS it should be – a most fierce wartime; of course, at the diplomatic level, which is the preliminary test for a parliamentary majority originating from today's ARS in a peaceful and reunited Somalia.

With this in mind, the two factions of ARS that deliberate in Sanaa in an effort to bridge the difference of opinions must come to a concord agreement, and each of them must configure the role that they will play in the future.

It is essential for the part that opposes Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed to realize that consent does not signify capitulation; no one would like to see next to Sheikh Sharif inactive puppets with no political will. Their consent should be their effort to be present and discuss terms and conditions in the future, imposing part of the final solution. It must be very clear to all that ARS has terrible enemies, and not only on African soil. It is in the north of Africa where one can locate them. They control both the Ethio-fascist regime of the Tigray tyranny, and some key persons in Somalia. There are indeed around the ambivalent TFG president most negative and evil persons, who help implement the most anti-Somali colonial policy. They work to permanently destroy Somalia, causing an incredible multi-division. They are known to some patriotic Somalis; but their hidden link with the colonial state of England has been vaguely known – thus far.

To underscore the importance for all the Somalis to destroy the plans of these pseudo-Somalis and cancel the nefarious colonial anti-Somali and anti-African plans, I will publish several articles on the subject in the next few days. The evilness of these persons' links will be exposed in the radiant Sun of Somalia. But how will ARS be able to definitely combat them, if not by being close to them, by frequenting them, and by detecting their targets and policies day by day - until the Somali Nation will vote in free elections for Constituent Assembly?

I republish here several articles and features that are all critical indications that the time left for ARS is very little and the moments count for years. The first three articles, all from Mareeg, shed light on the Abyssinian efforts to create problems to ARS and the Al Shebab, on the confusion prevailing among several Somali leaders, and on the intensification of battles as preached by Al Shebab. The possibility of a renewed face-off between Somaliland and Puntland in Las Qoray, as reported by Hiiraan, should trigger a great part of skepticism among the people around Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys. From the same website, I republish a wonderful article written with a lot of courage and imagination by Mr. Alim Dhayow, 'The ARS Must Reconcile'. It would be re-comforting to know that Mr. Dhayow is in Sanaa with all the rest. I add a brief but quintessential comment published at the end of Mr. Dhayow's article. Yes, that's true, what Somalia needs most is to have fervent believers and westernized atheists able to coexist and cohabitate peacefully in Somalia.

Somalia: Ethiopia rearms former Mogadishu warlords
http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=6784&tirsan=3

The Ethiopian regime has begun to rearm Mogadishu faction leaders the Somali Islamic Courts had disarmed in an attempt to carve up the city again.

As sources in Ethiopia government told the regime is supplying a lot of arms to some faction leaders, former members of the satanic alliance [Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counterterrorism] that Somali Islamic Courts fighters chased out of Mogadishu in 2006.

They include, among other men, Muse Sudi Yalahow, Bashir Rage Shirar, and Abdi Hasan Awale Qeybdid.

Sources privy to the matter confirm that the Ethiopia government persuaded these men to once again set up [militia] checkpoints in Mogadishu to return the city to the condition from which the Islamists captured from the warlords because they are routed.

Sources said that President Abdullahi Yusuf [Somali president] has felt as remorseful over the Djibouti agreement’s decision on the withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops from Somalia within 120 days.

The islamists said they are ready to confiscate weapons from the warlords if they are once again rearmed add them to their arsenal.

Somalia: Islamist leader urges his fighters to "intensify" attacks on Ethiopians
http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=6746&tirsan=3

Speaking to Mareeg online, Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia ARS Defence Secretary Sheikh Yusuf Muhammad Siyad "Indha-Adde" said that ARS members who participated in the Djibouti talks should repent to Allah.

"All those who took part in the so-called Djibouti talks should repent, considering that the talks, pushed by the colonialists and their apostate servants, were intended to conspire against the Somali people," Sheikh Yusuf Indha-Adde said.

ARS defence secretary also claimed that the attack on Baidoa city [south-west of Somalia] two nights ago was carried out by their fighters. He said their fighters remained encamped on the outskirts of the city.

"We destroyed two enemy vehicles. We had received information that they [government army convoy] were heading for Wanla Weyne [southern Somalia] and our fighters ambushed them, they are also pursuing the fleeing government soldiers," Sheikh Yusuf Indha-Adde said, adding that they attacked the convoy near Ballidoogle airport in Lower Shabeelle Region [southern Somalia].

Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia [ARS] Defence Secretary Sheikh Yusuf Indha-Adde said that the Ethiopian military claim of killing many of our fighters and commanders was a lie.

"The claim was a lie intended to hide 176 Ethiopian soldiers we have killed and over 500 others we have wounded," said Yusuf Indha-Adde. "We will never stop fighting. We will continue the fight until we expel the enemy from our country. We call upon the mujahidin to intensify the fight against the colonizer occupying their country," Yusuf Indha-Adde said.

The Islamist leaders have earlier rejected the deal, which had been signed the night before by moderate Islamists and the beleaguered transitional government of Somalia.

"The so-called deal is rubbish and inconsequential," Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, a strident Islamist leader, told The Associated Press. "It will not in any way result in peace." Instead, he said, it will bring only more bloodshed.

Aweys was among the major Islamist figures who boycotted peace talks organized by the United Nations and intended to end the relentless combat between Somalia's transitional government and a determined insurgency.

Moderate Islamist leaders, under the banner of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia, have agreed to a cease-fire in return for the departure of Ethiopian troops from the country, though it is not clear when that would be. The deal was signed Monday night in Djibouti, Somalia's small neighbor, which is considered neutral ground.

People on the streets of Mogadishu, the battered capital of Somalia, seemed both doubtful and hopeful. "There could be fighting from the hard-liners, but it won't be the same as it used to," said Hassan Gabre, a retired engineer. He said peace was important, but that Somalis desperately needed government, too.

Somalia has been in chaos for 17 years. The current clash pits Islamist fighters, some whom have links to Al Qaeda, against a weak transitional government that includes former warlords and is backed by Ethiopian troops. This past weekend, dozens of civilians were killed in street battles between the two sides. Human rights groups estimate that more than 5,000 people have died in fighting since the transitional government arrived in Mogadishu in December 2006, and that hundreds of thousands have been displaced.

UN officials have been seeking a peace deal for months, and one Western diplomat praised the agreement as "a step in the right direction."

"But it will only work if you make it work," the diplomat said Tuesday, speaking on the condition of anonymity under diplomatic rules. "It's not going to work if you sit on the fence and watch the hard-liners get stronger. The moderates compromised as much as they could without totally losing face." He argued that outside powers, including the United States, must overcome their skepticism about Somalia's perennial problems and provide real support, like expertise and money, to the peace process.

The deal clearly has its flaws. It promises the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops once UN troops arrive, but that "once" is problematic. UN officials have said they would consider sending peacekeepers to Somalia, but there is hardly a line of eager volunteers. With an enormous UN peacekeeping mission to Darfur, Sudan, struggling to get off the ground and the legacy of the failed peacekeeping mission to Somalia in the early 1990s looming, it is unlikely that blue helmets will be arriving in Mogadishu anytime soon.

Another problem is that the deal was signed by just one splinter faction of the Islamist movement, which briefly controlled much of Somalia in 2006. After Ethiopian troops ousted the movement, many Islamist leaders went into hiding and the movement split into factions, some open to negotiations, others dead set against them. The faction that signed the deal does not include influential leaders like Aweys or the Shabab, a separate militant group responsible for a lot of the current fighting.

Somalia: Mukhtar Rowbow urges Alshabab fighters to attack Baidoa town
By: Abdinasir Mohamed Guled

http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=6761&tirsan=3&PHPSESSID=190975ded42018af33f278a0670b12f9

The spokesman for Al-Shabab, Sheikh Muqtar Robow Abu Mansur, speaking to Mogadishu radio stations on telephone said Al-Shabab carried out attacks in Daynunay and took control of the town.

Sheikh Muqtar said several government soldiers were sentenced according to the Islamic law and were killed by Al-Shabab.

He also said they burnt down vehicles belonging to Somali government troops.

Sheikh Muqtar sent a message to the deputy governor of Bay Region, Shino Ma'alin Nur, who had earlier said there were no Al-Shabab forces in Baidoa town and its outskirts.

"We will continue with their fight and will proceed to Baidoa" Robow said.

Sheikh Muqtar also urged all opposition forces to converge in Baidoa town [the seat of parliament] to fight government forces and Ethiopian troops in the town.

"The Mujahidin attacked a base belonging to the apostates who work with the Ethiopians and Abdullahi Yusuf in Daynunay" He furiously said"The Mujahidin took over the camp and sentenced the apostates according to the laws of Allah by beheading them, thanks to Allah"

He also said that the remarks of the deputy governor of Baidoa town saying that no Alshabab fighters in the town.

"Ask Shino Ma'alin Nur [Deputy Governor of Bay Region] whether the Mujahidin took control of Daynunay" robow said.

The commissioner of Daynunay, Mahmud Issac confirmed to Shabeelle that heavy fighting took place in the town and added that a government soldier was killed.

Mr. Shine has refrained from confirming or denying whether Al-Shabab took control of the town but said fighting in the town affected the local administration.

Mr. Issac added that two of their drivers were injured in the town.

Calm has returned to the town and TFG forces are currently present in the district.

Three days ago, Al-Shabab attacked Baidoa town with mortars, the first attack since the TFG backed by Ethiopian troops moved into Mogadishu and Baidoa became an administrative town.

Bay Region is slowly becoming an opposition stronghold.

Somaliland and Puntland Face-off in Las Qoray
http://www.hiiraan.com/news2/2008/July/somaliland_and_puntland_face_off_in_las_qoray.aspx

Hiiraan Online
Friday, July 11, 2008
Mogadishu, Somalia (HOL) - Reports from the city of Lasqoray city in Sanag Region say that troops from Puntland and Somaliland are facing each other for possible war. Both Puntland and Somaliland administrations claim the city of Lasqoray as their own.

Tension over the city of Lasqoray between the two administrations has heated up in recent days. People in Sanag region are worried that a war between the two administrations may erupt at anytime.

The other day, Puntland administration said it is important to retake cities like Lasano which are currently under Somaliland administration.

On the other hand, reports say that troops from Somaliland administration have reached the city of Almadow where foreigners are being held captive to conduct military operations

The ARS Must Reconcile
By Alim Dhayow
http://www.hiiraan.com/op2_rss/2008/July/the_ars_must_reconcile.aspx

"Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or strikes out against injustice, he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope". Robert Francis K

The sudden break-up of the Asmara based ARS shocked many of us. The indestructible alliance has eventually split into two camps with top officials already accusing each other of committing a constitutional breach. Before the public fully grasped the extent of the dispute, the two camps had already started assembling members in Asmara and Djibouti respectively for a possible fragmentation of the original alliance. I wondered then if a foreign hand was behind the crumble of the ARS. Effort to separate the so called "moderate" Islamist from the "radical" group has been gathering new momentum in recent months. Befriending with the doves and alienating the hawks may not be the right solution to the Somali conflict. I smell the old Machiavellian maxim of "divide et impera", meaning divide and conquer by setting the alliance leaders against each other and prevent them from uniting against the ruler (the TFG in this context, perhaps the Ethiopians).

Unquestionably, the break-up hampers the re-liberation of Somalia and undermines the overwhelming public loyalty and support for the ARS. Thousands of Somalis admire and look up to the founders of the ARS as heroes, liberators. Such high regard and overwhelming public trust is waning away. I am afraid, my confidence in the ARS leadership hits rock bottom! A growing international conspiracy to create an incapacitating division in the Alliance is at full swing. The main objective is not formation of a national unity government in Somalia, but to weaken strength of the rising resistance movement in southern Somalia.

16 months of Ethiopian occupation has not made Mogadishu safer than the reign of the ruthless warlords. By far, the capital city was in immaculate condition in comparison to today’s debris and wreck. Mogadishu, the epic centre of horrendous battlefields, has to endure horrors of death, starvation, displacement and diseases and a huge humanitarian tragedy on a scale never seen before. As ragging inferno engulfs all cities in south Somalia, the UN is still debating which country is able to ferry the AU troops out of their countries.

Understandably, the stiff resistance activities in Mogadishu have deterred the deployment of 8000 strong AMISOM troops in Somalia. Only a handful of Ugandan and Burundian troops have been deployed unenthusiastically. The Addis Ababa regime clandestinely kept the AMISOM troops at bay so that the Ethiopian troops would finish off the remnant of the hard core Islamist fighters before the deployment of AMISOM soldiers take place. Foolishly, Ethiopians tread where the "angels dread!" Their vested interest is the ultimate annexation of Somalia. It is a well documented fact that Melez Zenawi’s oppressive regime has always acted as a catalyst for the breakup of Somalia into small fiefdoms ruled by despotic warlords. Ethiopia deploys troops in order to pacify Somalia is weeping crocodile tears! Call it a bluff.

A collation of resistance movement known as Al Muqawamah launches devastating counter-attacks against the invaders. In retaliation, the petrified Ethiopians indiscriminately bomb residential quarters causing mass execution, exodus and unparalleled humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa. The Ethiopian army in Mogadishu is feeling the brunt as well. Extremely stretched out and bogged down in the country of Sultans, wadaads and, warranle warriors, the Ethiopian troops lament meddling in Somalia’s nightmarish affairs in the first place. The miscalculated invasion of Somalia is not a blockbuster (success) for the raw meat eaters!

In recent days, there has been a renewed interest in the Somali conflict initiated by the UN’s special envoy to Somalia. The ill-plotted initial strategy of forceful elimination of the so called radical Islamist groups has backfired. Despite massive firepower, the enemy troops have been unsuccessful in making any significant improvement on the ground. Moreover, the Transitional Federal Authority still remains ineffective, dysfunctional by any standard. Roughly estimated, over 75 per cent of southern strategic cities have been recaptured by the opposition forces. Ethiopia’s unrealistic ambition of taming Mogadishu in fortnight has been shattered. The military option is concluding in fiasco. Alternatively, a political option is about to be launched in which the ARS is urged to be a main player.

Ethiopia demands a continued occupation of Somalia because the Islamic rebels keep threatening the puppet interim government. Ethiopia bluffs. She claims if the troops withdraw without a replacement the Islamist will definitely overthrow the TFG. This position, which prolongs the stalemate, has been viewed as a credible claim by many in the west. The TFG, as an interim institution, has very slim chance to survive and doomed to fail even if the entire world deploys troops to Somalia. Simply put, the TFG lacks competence, leadership, morale and support to lead the battle hardened Somalia out of its current mayhem. It imperative the ARS balance the political equation in Somalia and assume a leading role.

Nowadays, Ethiopian politicians are lobbying for a peaceful exit strategy from Somalia, an honourable withdrawal akin to mission accomplished. This comes after heavy loses and relentless attacks on the Ethiopian troops in Mogadishu. It is for the ARS executive council to decide whether to cautiously hail the new move or not. Clearly Ethiopians dread, hasty, ignominious departure in case people in Ethiopia view it as disgraceful retreat.

If the Ethiopians persist on continuing the occupation of Somalia, the powerful opposition group will humiliate them. The enemy troops are trotting "between the devil and the deep blue see." They are in big dilemma- to flee or die in the land of the warranle! The TPLF regime in Addis Ababa is highly anxious about this issue surrounding the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia.

God willing, if the Djibouti accord succeeds, Ethiopia will have no excuse to put off withdrawal of its troops from Somalia. It is deplorable negotiating with the traitor TFG, but the ARS as a whole, must take into account the looming international pressure on all the stakeholders. The crisis in Somalia has attracted world-wide condemnation and empathy.

In my opinion, judging the situation on the ground, the ARS making a concession is a bold step which merits a round of applause and optimistic reception. The ARS’s first priority is getting rid the invaders from Somalia by military or political means. The latter option seems viable at the moment. At least the UN is having a go. Therefore, it is advisable that ARS avail itself of this opportunity. The ARS then should not be accused of non-engagement with the UN envoy or the other negotiators. Perhaps, the world will listen to the plight of the oppressed people of Somalia with sympathetic ears. Perhaps fellow human beings would rise up in support of justice and denounce the atrocity in Somalia.

To the majority, the Djibouti accord means the following:

- withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops from all Somali territories

- permanent cessation of hostilities

- stability and normalcy

- genuine clan reconciliation

- re-allocation of confiscated properties and individual assets

- safe return of all internally dislodged masses

- repatriation of refugees

- speedy delivery of humanitarian assistance

- huge investment by the Diaspora

- reconstruction of the country

- international collaboration and developmental projects

- employment opportunities

- regaining the long-lost gift of life-peace and security

- re-unification of Somalia

- prosperity and economic enhancement

Isn’t that all Somalia needs now? Today thousands of profoundly disenchanted supporters wish the ARS leadership to compromise. Visionary leaders often adopt a policy of peace and negotiation at times. Intransigency and implacability can be labelled with radicalism even if one is pursuing a just cause as in the case of Somalia. For a long period of time Somalis have deprived themselves of the right to live in peace and harmony. Can’t we hear the oppressed Somali people are yearning for long-lost, God-given precious gift in life-peace? Truly, Somalia has had enough agony!

As credible leaders and members of the Alliance, I directly call upon you to resolve the damaging rift and exercise forbearance. To err is human. Fallibility is the second nature of all mankind, but it should not be allowed to ruin the common target which is liberating, restoring law and order in the beleaguered country. Somali people want to live in peace and they want it now. No appetite for further disappointments. Procrastination kills!!

The proposed cease fire does not stipulate surrendering weapons to the enemy. Neither does it mean demobilisation of the freedom fighters. The Alliance retains its arsenal, withholds its fire and collaborates with monitors until such time the enemy commits a breach first. If, for whatever reasons, the cease fire has been violated, the resistance groups are still in possession of their arsenal weapons and can resume enemy assaults without being liable. In essence, it is the best interest of the ARS to restraint itself and to uphold the peace deal. When inevitable, the ARS may fight the invaders and participate in the reconciliation dialogues simultaneously. Be optimistic and give sponsors benefits of the doubt!

On one hand, if the Djibouti Accord bears fruit because of the ARS participation, the Alliance will get credit for endorsing the agreement, for giving peace a chance. On the other hand, if all failed to materialise, the Alliance had acted in accordance with the peace deal anyway. Therefore, Somali people would not blame the ARS for failure of the peace deal. Either way, the ARS could be a hero. However, if the ARC remains intransigent, divided and allowed itself to be manipulated by foreign agents, then the ARS could crash or lose public loyalty. If the current rift in the ARS remains unresolved there can be no peace in Somalia no matter how powerful the powerful or well-connected the participating group is.

One lesson that Somalia’s long political conflict teaches us is that any peace accord will be inconclusive if one opposing group is not the official member of the signatories of that agreement. To avoid yet another frustration, the ARS must realise that the future of the Djibouti accord partly lies in their hands. It is delusion to assume the accord will be implemented without the Asmara wing of the ARS. No one can pin hope on assumptions. The Asmara wing of the ARS should be an important component of the peace deal. They should not be underestimated. The public opinion is inclined towards Djibouti summit and favours an ongoing tripartite dialogue. People want the ARS to either uphold or reject the peace deal as one, not on two opposing fronts. I envisage that the Djibouti Accord will receive the full support of the international community. They promised to fulfil their humanitarian obligation towards Somali people.

In the meantime, I strongly urge the ARS leaders to resolve their differences amicably and maintain the unity of the credible alliance. If differences prevail, it would be a big blow to peace, re-liberation of Somalia. This would mean continued occupation of the enemy, prolonged reign of the despised, unpopular TFG and humiliation of Somali people. Personal ambition aside, let us all show solidarity, fraternity, courage to put out the inferno in our beloved country and give our people a tiny ripple of hope.

Comment by Shanta

Alliance based on convenience. Merely a cover-up, in order to re-institute what was lost in hasty during the months of Dec.2006. Do you all believe that Sheik Sharif and Aided Jr would sit in the same assembly? One is with Allah and the other semi-Atheist.