The ARS Meeting in Asmara and the Voice of Profound Somalia

As the two factions of ARS hold separate meetings, a shadow of doubt has been cast over the destiny of the recently signed between ARS (former?) Chairman Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and the TFG Prime Minister.

Out of the overall confusion, one new element has drawn the attention of international observers, namely the reference made by the Acting Chairman of the Alliance, Dr. Zekaria Mahmoud Abdi, that "over 95% of Somali territory is now under the full control of the ARS fighters".

This shows that the ARS opposition to Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed have decided for military solution until the final victory over TFG and the expulsion of the Abyssinian occupation forces. In fact, the world media have been flooded by recent reports making state of military victories marked by the Shebab.

The question is whether Somali blood could be avoided through means of diplomatic negotiations; furthermore, the risk of further US assistance to Abyssinia (even limited at the level of intelligence – even only until the US elections in November) may prolong the Abyssinian army stay in the Somali South.

To enlighten the issue, I republish two reports that have been first published in the Eritrean governmental portal Shabait, and the leading Somali portal Mareeg.

As the ARS Asmara meeting participants seem ready to engage in the military option, I find the suggestions of an astute Somali political analyst from the Diaspora, Abdirizak Omar Mohamed, quite interesting for discussion and consideration. I republish therefore integrally his article ‘The TFG/Ethiopia likely to derail the D'jibouti Peace Accord’, which has been published in several Somali portals, notably Qaranimo and Hiiraan.

For me, the article of Mr. Abdirizak Omar Mohamed represents, better than most of what I have come to notice and go through over the past few months, the Voice of Profound Somalia. I will further discuss options in a forthcoming article.

2nd ARS Central Committee meeting opens here
http://www.shabait.com/staging/publish/article_008538.html

Asmara, 4 July 2008 – The 2nd Central Committee meeting of the Alliance for Re-Liberation of Somalia opened yesterday here in Asmara. Speaking at the opening session, the Acting Chairman of the Alliance, Dr. Zekaria Mahmoud Abdi, pointed out that the meeting is being held at a time when the Somali issue has reached a complicated stage and when the super powers, especially the US Administration, are officially backing Ethiopia’s occupation of Somalia. He further underscored that even the United Nations, instead of striving to resolve the problem in accordance with its Charter, is being part and parcel of the problem.

Dr. Zekaria went on to explain that the UN has orchestrated the foiled conspiracy of so-called Djibouti agreement, thus fully attesting to such a double standard. He exposed that those who participated in the scheme are the ones who have fallen into the trap either driven by self-interest or intimidation.

Noting that the Somali popular opposition against the Ethiopian invasion is gaining added momentum, Dr. Zekaria indicated that the invading Ethiopian Army and its collaborators are suffering heavy loss and defeat, and that over 95% of Somali territory is now under the full control of the ARS fighters. He underlined that the major victories which the Somali freedom fighters are scoring on the ground are vivid demonstration of the failure of enemy conspiracy.

Somalia: Opposition factions in Asmara, Djibouti hold separate talks

http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=6646&tirsan=3

Separate meetings have commenced for the two factions of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia [ARS] which are based in Asmara and Djibouti to discuss the political situation in the country.

ARS factions which are based in Asmara and Djibouti have held separate meetings to discuss the political situation in the country.

The alliance officials on both sides have said the meetings have been postponed due to lack of quorum as per the law.

However, Muhammad Suldan Garyare, who is among the Alliance members in Asmara, said the meeting has started and they now have a full quorum.

Garyare said their group will discuss the political situation in the country, adding that the Djibouti meeting is not being attended by all the officials.

He also said his group is discussing what do about the situation in Somalia.

" We discussed few predictions about what to do, the future of the alliance, politics both in and out of the country [Somalia] and correcting the mistakes made by previous leaders of the alliance [Words in distinct] God willing, the meeting will start on Saturday [5 July] morning" He said.

He added that the meeting in Sana'a, Yemen is not a mediation meeting but its meeting between those from the courts who have given up their lives and finances and whose support we cannot do without.

"It is about those who went to Djibouti to sign the agreement that we deem illegal and was meant to betray Somalis, The agreement which was signed regarding the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops has not been implemented. As you are aware, they [Ethiopian troops] went to Central Regions which is hundreds of kilometres away to follow those they forced to flee from Mogadishu and have wrecked havoc in those peaceful areas" he said.

Speaking to Mareeg online by phone from Eritrean capital Asmara Leyla] Suleyman Roble, who is among the ARS official in Djibouti, also said the meeting which commenced yesterday was attended by all ARS officials [of the Djibouti based faction] except for a few who are on leave.

Suleyman spoke on the discussion in the meetings and their knowledge of the Asmara meeting held by their rival faction.

"As I said earlier, most of the Central Committee members of the Alliance are present. There are over 60 officials some of whom arrived last night while others arrived this morning from Arab countries; Saudi Arabia and Dubai. Many others are away on official duty, for example Sheikh Sharif together with 40 members and the chairman of the Central Committee are also away on duty together with six or seven other members, but the rest are coming. Our meeting is not shrouded in secrecy. We are not hiding and the meeting is conducted" she said.

These separate meetings held by the different factions of the ARS come at a time when there are apparent differences between alliance members in Djibouti and Asmara regarding the situation in Somalia although both sides are currently saying they are discussing ways of improving the situation in the country.

The TFG/Ethiopia likely to derail the D'jibouti Peace Accord
By Abdirizak Omar Mohamed

http://www.hiiraan.com/op2/2008/july/the_tfg_ethiopia_likely_to_derail_the_d_jibouti_peace_accord.aspx

The analysis in post D'jibouti agreement between the TFG and the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia failed to address potential obstacles to the peace agreement that would cause its failures. Most of these analysis focused mainly on one party to the conflict and failed to critically examine all sides of the conflict by merely putting emphasis on the emerging cleavage and widening philosophical differences between the leadership within the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia; that is whether their disagreement is recipe for the complete collapse of the agreement before its implementation begins. By viewing the Accord through the lens of one perspective, fails to objectively examine the overall accord.

In this essay I will try to present a different analysis as a rejoinder to these perspectives by examining all sides of the conflict including Ethiopia and Eritrea as outside spoilers and potential catalysts for the failure of this peace agreement, as well as present some suggestions to counter these obstacles. It’s noteworthy to highlight that I am a proponent of this Accord, yet skeptical about its success and very concerned about some of the provisions in the agreement.

Many of the write-up in the aftermath of the D’jibouti agreement expressed optimism yet unfairly over-emphasized the disagreement among the Alliance leadership as the likelihood catalyst for the failure of the agreement by spreading defeatist notions before the ink dried up; implying that the Alliance will not deliver what they have agreed to, due to the emerging disagreement among its leadership. In fact this is just a fig leaf intended as a smoke screen for Ethiopia 's ambitious dream to prolong its illegal occupation by putting blame squarely on the disagreement between the ARS leadership. In hindsight, when taken into account the following factors, it becomes obvious any violation of the agreement is likely to arise from the TFG/Ethiopian opposition and not as a result of the conflict within the ARS, because the ARS is united in a matter of principle for the withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops through military or political solution.

Ethiopia an outside spoiler

As demonstrated by the deeds and actions of Ethiopia in the past, it has always played an outside spoiler in all the past Somali peace agreements and perpetuated the Somali crises for the past 17 years and illegally invaded Somalia on December 2006. In his response to this invasion, Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia stated that "Our defense force has been forced to enter a war to defend [against] the attacks from extremists and anti-Ethiopian forces and to protect the sovereignty of the land." This could not be farther from the truth, as Ethiopia has been Somalia 's perennial enemy and its desire to cause eternal crisis in Somalia is its chief objective.

As Quincy Wright (1965:2) rightly notes that war can't be said to be occurring when the antagonists do not recognize each other as participants, but see the opponent simply as an obstacle to the achievement of certain goals, as geographical barrier might be. From national security perspective, the Union of Islamic Courts could not pose danger to the sovereignty of Ethiopia as Ethiopia is more than capable to deal with threats from poorly armed militia. Accordingly, stakes are even higher for Ethiopia this time around for the following assumptions and it will utilize every trick in the book to derail the D'jibouti accord to pursue its historic hegemonic interest in the region:

a) The financial life-line that has been feeding Ethiopia ’s regime for the past two years to fight off Islamic threats, real or imagined is likely to be cut off if the D'jibouti Accord is implemented and Ethiopia is forced to withdraw its troops from Somalia .

b) There is the likelihood that potential domestic uprising due to food shortage and higher unemployment rates as a result of draughts and Ethiopian government's regressive domestic policies.

c) The power of the puppet government of Mr. Yusuf will be extremely diminished to the extent of any power sharing agreement that arises from the D’jibouti Accord will not serve the interest of Meles Zenawi.

Moreover, the geopolitical interest of Ethiopia is at play here and wants to keep Somalia in perpetual chaos; a case in point is this open letter titled "Ethiopia is being circled by its enemies" and is addressed to the Ethiopian Diaspora, intellectuals, Ethiopian nationalists and government officials. In it the writer Mr. Tecola W. Hagos of Washington DC urges them to prevent the proposed D’jibouti reconciliation efforts initiated by the head of UNPOS, H.E. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla, and the writer uses religion and nationalism as the basis for his reasoning and why it is obligatory on every Ethiopian citizen to take every step necessary to challenge and oppose Mr. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla’s peace initiative.

The writer demonizes Mr. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla by tearing apart the envoy's personality and tarnishes Mr. Ahmedou-Ould Abdalla's report to the UN Security Council and claims the report is "a direct threat to the very existence of Ethiopia ". http://www.tecolahagos.com/Article_UN_Somali_Envoy2[1].pdf . Subsequently, during the peace process Ethiopia's ambassador in D'jibouti attempted to derail the peace process, and when that failed the feared head of the Ethiopian Intelligence Services in Somalia, Mr. Gabre was dispatched to influence the TFG delegation and as stated by many close observers to the process accepted the agreement when amended to include a provision that will give a face-saving exit to the Ethiopians into the agreement in article Seven section B in which ' the TFG will act in accordance with the decision that has already taken by the Ethiopian Government to withdraw its troops from Somalia after the deployment of a sufficient number of UN forces". As illustrative by the bolded italic, that addition was made to indicate Ethiopia has already made a decision to withdraw, when in fact it was included to meet the demands made by Ethiopia ’s Gabre.

TFG as an inside spoiler

Though Ethiopia failed to wreck the outcome of the D’jibouti Accord to its benefit, its cronies in Baydhabo are at full force to hamper the peace process to serve their masters in Addis Ababa . According to local sources in Baydhabo, parliamentary members closely allied with the Ethiopians are contemplating to introduce a motion to remove the TFG Prime Minister to create political crisis that will bring down his government and open doors to new opportunities to justify Ethiopia ’s presence in Somalia for a protracted time and eventually kill the entire peace process. Others including the TFG president are making controversial statements on local radios to discredit the accord by attacking the personalities associated with peace process.

Other members of the TFG parliament will oppose simply for their personal interest as they benefit from the war economy and aid and donor money, while they are also concerned about what the uncertain future holds for them.

Recommendations

As Sally Healy of Chatham House puts it in her latest report, ‘ Ethiopia has become deeply embroiled in Somali politics and has invested too heavily to settle for a quick exit.’ Indeed, the terrorism rhetoric by Meles Zenawi is just a devious ploy and what drives fundamentally its policy is the existing dispute with Eritrea. And this is equally true with respect to Eritrea and that the welcome reception extended for the ARS is not what shapes its policies towards Somalia, but is using the presence of the ARS as bargaining chip to divert international attention from its regressive domestic policies and its border dispute with Ethiopia, a case in point is its opposition to the currently signed D'jibouti Accord. Given these realities, and the fact that both are using Somalia to conduct their dirty proxy war and both have captive audiences that could derail the peace process, it is paramount that following steps are taken concurrently;

1) The UNPOS must ask the immediate deployment of the UN troops in Mogadishu without any delay and immediately ask the Ethiopian troops to completely withdraw from Somalia . This will give credit to the agreement as opponents of the accord will have less influence to inflame opposition to the deployment of UN troops.

2) Support the ongoing dialogue between and within the ARS. While it is also necessary to make the process more inclusive and invite the likes of Sheikh Hassan Aweys as he can influence the military wing of the Alliance and is in a position to woo the Al-shabab wing of the Alliance .

3) Pressure Ethiopia not to act as a spoiler to the peace process as it has always done in the past.

4) Urge the International Community to support the peace process politically and logistically without any delay as it is regrettable the UN Security Council has not yet discussed the peace agreement and did not pass a resolution with respect to this peace accord.

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Abdirizak Omar Mohamed is and independent researcher and a member of Somali Canadian Diaspora Alliance who holds Masters degree in Environmental Studies focusing on post-conflict development from York University , Toronto and can be reached at Email: abdirizakom@gmail.com

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Picture: Dr. Zekaria Mahmoud Abdi in the 2nd Central Committee meeting of the Alliance for Re-Liberation of Somalia held in Asmara