Possible Consequence of the 09 Presidential Elections in Romania

It is very difficult to predict a positive result in determining how stability will be a characteristic of the Romanian government after the November presidential vote. The ’09 elections are by my consideration one of the most important ones in deciding who the next head of state will be, and they will constitute a turning point in our public and political life.

As I previously stated it is difficult to see a positive outcome from these elections, and I say this, on account of my own viewpoint, because they will create an almost definite state of volatility within the government. No candidate, if elected, represents a figure able to promote stability, at least in this mandate, and with it logical progress, but this isn’t necessarily because of politician statute, notoriety, capabilities or influence, as it will show in the analysis from the next section.

The three main contenders are current president Traian Basescu, newly elected president of PNL Crin Antonescu and the head of PSD Mircea Geoana; alongside came novelty figure in the public life, royalty persona Radu Duda, about whom our discussion will be brief and will represent the conclusion of the article.

We shall take them one by one and through a bit of analytical pondering we shall see that neither of them constitutes "the best choice", at most "the better choice" in the atmosphere of political disputes and confusion that dominates Romanian public life.

Present head of state Traian Basescu started his term in 2004 as a candidate from the Democrat Party (PD) the present main component of the democrat-liberals (PD-L) who lead the government in a coalition with the social-democrats (PSD). His term has been at the very least, intense. He was the protagonist of many scandals, culminating with the most political relevant, the motion to impeach him, started by an alliance between the national-liberals (PNL) and PSD with the leadership of ex Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu, and voted by the Parliament. Tariceanu was nominated for the head of government at that time by the same Basescu against whom he later turned. This (the image of our beloved betrayed president), his popularity and probably the most important aspect, the fact that because the government was against him, a more strict control was exercised in order to keep him in check, represent the main reasons for which the referendum turned out to be in favor of his stay in power. As we can see, things changed after the 2008 elections.

PD-L won, fashioned the coalition without which they couldn’t have formed the government and now Traian Basescu has full control over it through his party, slightly shifting the constitutional definition of the Romanian republic from semi-presidential to presidential. This would be, lets assume, a great push for a stable government, with a worthy opposition, even if the powers of the president grew slightly over their constitutional right. It is not the case though, because Basescu has shown his true expression and intentions. He increased his prerogatives to an almost complete influence over the government and forwarded policies and reforms which are in their nature so absurd, that the previous mentioned opposition cannot stand by (on correct assessment) and conduct public debates for public awareness in order to make the government moderate their strategy, but has to intervene in a more forceful manner to prevent, on one hand, the reforms to pass and be implemented and on the other, Basescu from winning the presidency for his second mandate. If he is elected, you can only imagine the struggles between the "Basescu Government" as it is incorrectly but accurately called, and the opposition. Along with the sure to appear scandals just mentioned, a secondary conflict will be definite to emerge in case Basescu is elected.

As recent history shows (when in 2007 – PNL forced PD-L out from the government), after the elections, if Basescu will have secured his position, the coalition formed in 2008 shaping the current government, which is in its nature also absurd, but with a clear purpose, will find itself useless. The purpose for its creation had to be both the need of PD-L and PSD to have governmental responsibilities in the important year of elections in 2009. PD-L will be on the winning side, with Boc as already named Prime Minister, while PSD will be in a defensive position against the attacks coming from Basescu and PD-L.

First, this will translate into the rigid dividing of the government portfolios leaving no more room for cooperation, not even for the eye of the public opinion, which is, to a certain extent, the case now; following will begin a systematic operation of expelling and excluding the social-democrats from the government, on of course direct orders from him, Traian Basescu; finally when total victory will be achieved by Basescu and Boc, state institutions will become personal utensils for them and their close supporters. I leave the reader to decide what impact it will have upon the Romanian political, public, cultural, social and economic life, if such a case would emerge, and encourage a campaign for public awareness of the crucial times we live in - the danger that can arise from the ignorance or indifference on the behalf of the electorate.

Because the existing government coalition is between PD-L and PSD, I will continue with the candidate coming from the social-democrats.

Mircea Geoana’s candidacy is based on the certainty of a positive outcome for PSD in the November elections. Adrian Nastase, another prominent figure in Romanian politics and member of PSD claimed that the social-democrats have better chances of winning the presidential elections if they withdraw from the governing coalition. The fact of the matter is that since the government was formed in 2008, in this short period of time, PSD has shown why they are not supposed to be elected.

Besides the fact that they demonstrated the electorate that not their party platform is behind the government but a morph of power interests, they have promoted the well-known fixed tax for small and medium enterprises which, if implemented, can be translated in the demise of almost half of these enterprises in the country, a bill correctly disputed by both the media and by the opposition. It is as absurd as it sounds, and regional economies followed by the national one will have a great deal of suffering to undertake.

Mircea Geoana’s case is not so different from Basescu’s if we take under our considerations the lack of stability within the government his achieving the job of head of state in November will bring about. A few essential things would be, of course, different, that can be judged as slight improvements, but nonetheless problems will arise in many numbers. Mircea Geoana as president backed by PSD, with the coalition government and the PNL opposition strikes as a confused case in which PD-L and PNL will start the well known political offensive (PNL because it considers itself as the opposition while PD-L because of their expectancy from PSD to try to expel them from the government).

As I mentioned, after securing the presidential chair, the same as Basescu, PSD will find the governing coalition futile, not in accordance to their needs, and will act upon its dissolution, meaning constant battles between the two governing parties added to which the oppositions filter and attack of the reform proposals that leak out of the now forming rigid government. Until PD-L exits the government completely for the second time (first in 2007), constant competitiveness and denouncing of one another will be the case between the coalition parties. On the other hand, if PD-L will quickly be defeated (which I don’t think will be the case - as Prime Minister Boc is already installed and won’t go without a fight), the situation might start to improve as to a social-democrat government allied with probably the Hungarian minority party (UDMR) in order to first overpower Boc, and later to help form the government, would not be the most detrimental thing that can happen to our political system.

A balanced checking from the PNL opposition will keep the government in line, and then, and then only, we can consider going towards something that can be called progress. This positive outcome I just described is theoretically the best case scenario that can result from these elections: a swift defeat of PD-L, quick and effective implementation of PSD and let’s say UDMR to governmental responsibilities, taking charge and acknowledgement of PNL as a veritable opposition, would be only a few conditions necessary for this to properly happen. As history teaches us, slim are the chances for these to occur, as I said in the essay about the coalitions of opposition: the lack of political tradition and culture stands as an impediment for political developments and progress.

We’ve seen generally what can be predicted will happen both in the case of Basescu and of Geoana if they are elected. We shall go further and make a quick analysis of the third candidate, and the only one left, who possesses at least a chance to win, as the only reason we will discuss Radu Duda is because of his novelty in his appearance in the public sphere and the notoriety he quickly achieved showed by the emerging discussion groups about his candidacy all over the country. So as you imagined I’m referring to Crin Antonescu, recently elected for the head of his party, PNL.

March 2009 marked the moment in which vice-president of the national-liberals was elected president of the party and went on further to schedule the official announce of his candidacy for the job of head of state on May 9th.

PNL image is at the moment still damaged in the eye of the electorate by the reign of Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu (2004-2008), and probably this is the reason why he didn’t win the presidency of his party right before the important national presidential elections. It is the task of Antonescu to regain the lost support of some of the voters in the quick time he has until November. It is a difficult one if we take into considerations the support backing both Basescu and Geoana, but he already started and he does it mostly by invoking favorable times that envisioned PNL as a great, even historic party that was in terms with what the national interest was and did the most to protect the well-being of the citizens. Also, distinctive to Romanian politics, he gains popularity by damaging the images of his counter-candidates, by criticizing the actions undertook by the coalition government. The situation presents itself though in the form of a conundrum.

We have just seen the repercussions four more years of Basescu presidency or four years of Geoana at the task would bring about to Romanian politics and public life. It would be magnificent for the nation if the election of Antonescu meant the construction of a stable executive. It is not the case though. The analysis can be simplified to a level in which all we have to do is imagine the construction of the political system: PNL both as president and as the opposition in the Parliament, while the government remains the seemingly disastrous coalition. Again, the parties will find it useless and will act upon dissolution, and both the members of the coalition will fight on two fronts: against each other, and the president who in term will agree with neither the quarrels in the government, nor with the politics of the two now more and more logically opposed parties. In a nutshell Crin Antonescu would become the president of state backed by the opposition which by definition should be directed both against the government and the president (executive branch).

The Romanian nation, as always but this time more acute, is forced into a situation in which the voting system is not based on political qualities in the sense that the voter chooses the best man for the job, but to a great extent the voter is forced to chose the lesser of multiple evils, may they be two or three. It is a political backwardness in which we and our political system managed to endeavor, with no apparent possibility to come out. No discernible situation can be envisaged in which our political life can breakthrough and come out of the seemingly worsening illness that ravages it from the inside out.

At least not in the 4 years to come, with these government components and political maneuvers which resemble the international relations as explained by the realist theory, in the sense that power politics is at the base of state, this case political party, relations. I believe Crin Antonescu should create a plan encapsulating further strategies than a hypothetical 5 year mandate as president. Candidates should think in the long term and stop considering only 10 month-2 year plans, the most important case proving this being again the coalition from which both parties were so convinced about the winning of the presidential elections, that neither of them worried about the repercussions the winning of the other will have, not only on the government but also on their own party.

Short term considerations are what brought us into this inescapable situation in which our politics finds itself. I consider Crin Antonescu as remotely the only one that is at least promising to create something new in Romania, and that barely in the very long term, him because of the contrast it sets with the others, and maybe also because of the fact that in 2008, PNL refused to make a governing coalition with PSD or PD-L, thus escaping the inflexible position in which the latter find themselves politically as well as publicly.

We have seen the 3 main contenders for the presidential elections, the remaining I set out to discuss being royal figure Radu Duda of Hohenzollern-Veringen.

Radu Duda’s announce for candidacy was quite a surprise as to most Romanians were not even aware of his existence, thus from the start, becoming an operation deemed to fail, and most likely orchestrated in such a manner. He stresses his independent status, claiming that his "candidacy is based on competence and not strategies" (Radu Duda).

It isn’t worthwhile taking up a discussion about what the political system would look like with Duda as the head of state, but we should rather see who is behind him, who supports his so called independent status, and for what real purpose he entered the race for presidency.

As a representative of the royal house immediately we focus our attention on King Mihai, who might be considered behind him, as a means for him to attain the ruling of the state which he lost in 1947. Strong evidence backing any of the cases is yet to be found, speculation is what’s left. Another school of thought might say that Radu Duda is backed by Basescu in order for some social-democrat fans to vote Radu Duda and prevent Geoana from entering the second round. It may be the opposite case as well, we can only speculate. Either way, there is a strong feeling about his candidacy not being exactly kosher in the sense that it is not conducted as a traditional one in the direction of actual winning the presidential elections.

I took up the opportunity of presenting Radu Duda as a brief conclusion to the article. The reason for such a short mentioning of the royal candidate is the fact that it does not concern me in developing the topic for this article, which is in fact, the consequences that will follow the elections of the 3 main candidates. Read more on Romanian Political Mosaic the Oppositional Trend That Emerges.