Pascal’s Wager
The French thinker Blaise Pascal is the author of Pascal’s Wager, one of the most famous theological thought experiments of the past 500 years. This article gives an overview of the idea behind the wager and what it can mean for your spiritual life.
Blaise Pascal was an important French philosopher and mathematician. Although he made numerous contributions to a number of intellectual fields, he was a great theological thinker as well, and arguably his greatest contribution to the field was made in the form of a book called the Pensées, which is French for "Thoughts." The book consists of Pascal’s personal reflections on a number of topics, prominently including his own spirituality. Somewhere between essays (like those of Michel de Montaigne or Ralph Waldo Emerson) and aphorisms (like those of Arthur Schopenhauer or Marcus Aurelius), the Pensées is a striking and unique text in the history of thought, and its erudite but personal nature makes it a thought-provoking read even hundreds of years later.
Logic and Faith
One of the most well-known ideas that Pascal put forth in the Pensées is commonly referred to as ‘Pascal’s Wager.’ Pascal’s Wager is the result of Pascal’s reflections about the nature of faith and about his own belief in the Christian God. Pascal supposed that, given a crisis of faith or uncertainty regarding faith, one should be able to arrive at a reasonable conclusion using the power of thought and logic. Although many Christians believe that faith and logic are fundamentally incompatible, Pascal was interested to see how they could inform one another, and the conclusions he came to are interesting from both academic and spiritual points of view.
Pascal’s Wager
In short, Pascal’s Wager invites the faithful and unfaithful alike to consider the consequences of their chosen paradigms. Because, as Pascal admits, there is no scientific or logical way to arrive at certain knowledge of the existence of God, both belief and unbelief amount to a kind of bet, or wager. For example, if I claim that God exists, I am, in essence, betting that I am right, and the same goes if I claim that the Christian God does not exist.
The Odds
Now, in most instances of betting that we encounter, such as betting on races or gambling in casinos, we have some idea of how we should bet, given the context of the wagers we make. In other words, we tend to bet on things when the odds are in our favor. For example, during a poker game I will make a bet if it is likely that I have the best hand or if it is likely that I can convince my opponents that I have the best hand. If these outcomes are unlikely, I probably will not bet. In the case of faith, this analogy raises the question of odds. Is it more likely that God exists or that God does not exist? (More on this is Is God a myth or reality?) We could consider various arguments in favor of both answers, but in the end it makes the most sense to conclude that the odds do not strongly favor one side or another, at least as far as we can tell. Thus, we need to take another facet of betting into account.
The Consequences
According to Pascal, making a well-informed wager requires taking into account the consequences of both winning and losing the bet. To continue with the poker example: if I choose to bet on a particular hand, I must consider not only the odds but also my overall position in the game if I win and if I lose. I could bet a large amount on reasonably strong odds, but if I lost, all my money would be gone. Therefore, it often makes more sense to bet a sensible amount so that if I lose I will be able to keep playing.
What if God exists?
How does all this apply to faith? The answer lies in the "what if" question that characterizes Pascal’s Wager. What if I don’t believe in God? Pascal reasons that this amounts to betting my soul (or lack thereof) on this idea that there is no Christian God, and acting accordingly. Without faith, I may not live a Christian life because I do not believe that there are consequences. If I’m correct, no harm comes to me, or to my soul, when I die. If I’m wrong, however, the consequences could be dire, even including eternal damnation if I sin too seriously. On the other hand, if I do believe in God, I will live a Christian life, accepting Jesus Christ as my savior, avoiding sin and excess, and perhaps missing out on a few of life’s indulgent pleasures. The consequences? If I am right, my eternal soul will be saved. If I am wrong, no harm is done.
The Safe Bet
Given these considerations, here is Pascal’s conclusion: if I have faith and lead a Christian life, the worst thing that could possibly happen to me is that I am wrong and I am neither saved nor damned. On the other hand, if I lack faith and live an unchristian life, the worst thing that could happen to me is quite a bit worse. Therefore, it makes far more sense to live a Christian life and seek faith than it does to live faithlessly. Maybe Pascal’s Wager amounts to making a "safe bet", and many have argued that Pascal’s sort of faith doesn’t count because it’s based on logic. The "safe bet" is to check out the Pensées and decide for yourself.
Logic and Faith
One of the most well-known ideas that Pascal put forth in the Pensées is commonly referred to as ‘Pascal’s Wager.’ Pascal’s Wager is the result of Pascal’s reflections about the nature of faith and about his own belief in the Christian God. Pascal supposed that, given a crisis of faith or uncertainty regarding faith, one should be able to arrive at a reasonable conclusion using the power of thought and logic. Although many Christians believe that faith and logic are fundamentally incompatible, Pascal was interested to see how they could inform one another, and the conclusions he came to are interesting from both academic and spiritual points of view.
Pascal’s Wager
In short, Pascal’s Wager invites the faithful and unfaithful alike to consider the consequences of their chosen paradigms. Because, as Pascal admits, there is no scientific or logical way to arrive at certain knowledge of the existence of God, both belief and unbelief amount to a kind of bet, or wager. For example, if I claim that God exists, I am, in essence, betting that I am right, and the same goes if I claim that the Christian God does not exist.
The Odds
Now, in most instances of betting that we encounter, such as betting on races or gambling in casinos, we have some idea of how we should bet, given the context of the wagers we make. In other words, we tend to bet on things when the odds are in our favor. For example, during a poker game I will make a bet if it is likely that I have the best hand or if it is likely that I can convince my opponents that I have the best hand. If these outcomes are unlikely, I probably will not bet. In the case of faith, this analogy raises the question of odds. Is it more likely that God exists or that God does not exist? (More on this is Is God a myth or reality?) We could consider various arguments in favor of both answers, but in the end it makes the most sense to conclude that the odds do not strongly favor one side or another, at least as far as we can tell. Thus, we need to take another facet of betting into account.
The Consequences
According to Pascal, making a well-informed wager requires taking into account the consequences of both winning and losing the bet. To continue with the poker example: if I choose to bet on a particular hand, I must consider not only the odds but also my overall position in the game if I win and if I lose. I could bet a large amount on reasonably strong odds, but if I lost, all my money would be gone. Therefore, it often makes more sense to bet a sensible amount so that if I lose I will be able to keep playing.
What if God exists?
How does all this apply to faith? The answer lies in the "what if" question that characterizes Pascal’s Wager. What if I don’t believe in God? Pascal reasons that this amounts to betting my soul (or lack thereof) on this idea that there is no Christian God, and acting accordingly. Without faith, I may not live a Christian life because I do not believe that there are consequences. If I’m correct, no harm comes to me, or to my soul, when I die. If I’m wrong, however, the consequences could be dire, even including eternal damnation if I sin too seriously. On the other hand, if I do believe in God, I will live a Christian life, accepting Jesus Christ as my savior, avoiding sin and excess, and perhaps missing out on a few of life’s indulgent pleasures. The consequences? If I am right, my eternal soul will be saved. If I am wrong, no harm is done.
The Safe Bet
Given these considerations, here is Pascal’s conclusion: if I have faith and lead a Christian life, the worst thing that could possibly happen to me is that I am wrong and I am neither saved nor damned. On the other hand, if I lack faith and live an unchristian life, the worst thing that could happen to me is quite a bit worse. Therefore, it makes far more sense to live a Christian life and seek faith than it does to live faithlessly. Maybe Pascal’s Wager amounts to making a "safe bet", and many have argued that Pascal’s sort of faith doesn’t count because it’s based on logic. The "safe bet" is to check out the Pensées and decide for yourself.
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