Osama bin Laden Video: More Smoke and Mirrors?

Who is the central character in the new bin Laden video? A look-alike Osama muppet or possibly a reworked version of an older image? The actual dude himself? A commentator on a blog thread said he thought at first it was a deeply tanned Dennis Kucinich wearing a false beard and a funny hat.

There has been speculation that in later years, Osama may have taken to using Just For Men or possibly Grecian Formula. Isn’t there something oddly contradictory about an Islamist zealot who rails against Western lifestyles and decadence, taking time out for vanity beard touch-ups ... even if it is for Jihad symbolism? The beard itself in no way resembles the stringy, gray streaked former beard. It looks frizzy and has the shoe polish look of a bad dye job. That can happen if you aren’t skilled enough to finesse your photo shopped handiwork in a convincing manner.

So just visually speaking, there is everything wrong with this video. It screams "phony".

As for the audio ... it’s pretty rough, at least the versions I have heard. The poor quality is almost certainly a ploy to make any voice-matching efforts a difficult undertaking. The CIA is saying voice analysis "proves" it is bin Laden, but more than a few people remain unconvinced.

Technology has been around for years that can do a half decent job with voice morphing. It is entirely possible to clone speech patterns and produce an accurate facsimile that has you saying something you would never be caught dead saying. When you garble the tape it becomes even tougher for experts to make a 100% judgment one way or the other.

Ex-army linguist, George Maschke, noticed a few other anomalies ...

Osama Bin Laden's widely publicized video address to the American people has a peculiarity that casts serious doubt on its authenticity: the video freezes at about 1 minute and 36 58 seconds, and motion only resumes again at 12:30. The video then freezes again at 14:02 remains frozen until the end. All references to current events, such as the 62nd anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Japan, and Sarkozy and Brown being the leaders of France and the UK, respectively, occur when the video is frozen! The words spoken when the video is in motion contain no references to contemporary events and could have been (and likely were) made before the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

While I’m reserving a final judgment on the video, there are quite a few reasons to question its authenticity. It is possible that it is an earlier recording that for whatever reason remained in the AQ archive. An older tape could feasibly be doctored to create the impression that it is current. The freezings Maschke mentions, occur when the track departs from the original script in order to include current content.

Then there is the content itself. What happened to the elegant, carefully weighted language of the earlier videos, the calculated threats and tight focus? When did bin Laden become a globalization protester and begin sounding off like a college drop-out keen to pump Noam Chomsky, along with warnings against global warming and complaints about "insane taxes"? The bin laden figure even takes on "real estate mortgage" and factory "emissions". All that remains is for him to whip out a demo placard to complete the picture.

Sounds a lot like American fugitive Adam Gadahn playing ventriloquist. Gadahn moved to Pakistan in 1998 and hooked up with Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. He’s been named by the FBI as a top AQ suspect and has also been accused of planning attacks on the US.

A London Telegraph article quotes a US intelligence official on Gadahn ... "It (the video) has Adam Gadahn written all over - the title of the biggest gas bag in the terrorist world".

Aside from the questionable nature of the video itself, there is the strange coincidence that once again a bin Laden video magically appears at a pivotal moment for the Bush administration. General Petraeus is giving his long awaited verdict on Iraq. A 9/11 anniversary is coming up and a recent Zogby poll shows the majority of Americans want a new investigation into 9/11.

Whether or not bin Laden is dead or alive, whether or not the videos are real or mock-ups - one thing is certain - the Bush administration needs to keep Osama in the wings, poised to make strategic entries. The war on terror script just wouldn’t be the same without the global version of the bogeyman - now would it.