Nomination Race is "Over," Say Pundits

By Anastacia Mott Austin

Wait, do you hear that? Listen closely. Somewhere off in the distance I swear I can hear a fat lady singing.

No? Well, then she is seriously warming up for her looming concerto.

With this week’s primaries in North Carolina and Indiana decided, Barack Obama has all but sealed his nomination as the Democratic nominee for President.

In fact, the media has been quick to pounce on the news, with headlines declaring Hillary Clinton "Toast!" (The New York Post), and several major morning talk shows announcing essentially the same.

With a decisive 15-point win over Clinton in North Carolina, and a nail-biter of a loss in Indiana (51-49, and a difference of only 16,000 voters), Obama can smell the victory coming his way.

Clinton, for her part, is refusing to acknowledge the writing on the wall, and says she is on her way to the White House.

Still, some say that even the former First Lady has to have seen the inevitability of the results now, with some of her own campaign staffers wondering when she’ll decide to concede.

Both candidates are expected to meet with undecided superdelegates this week, to try to convince them to decide, already, and possibly put an end to the dragged-out fight.

As of Wednesday, Obama had already added four new superdelegates to his list, while Clinton added two. However, she also lost one when a former Clinton superdelegate switched allegiance to Obama.

Jennifer McClellan, Virginia DNC member, had pledged her support for Clinton earlier, but after the recent primaries defected to the Obama camp.

In addition, longtime Clinton supporter George McGovern has changed his allegiance to Obama, urging Clinton to drop out of the race. "I do not see how Clinton could now prevail in winning the nomination. Barack Obama has an overwhelming lead in pledged delegates, said McGovern, 85, to the press after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries.

"I do not see how she has much chance of pulling out the nomination now, and I think it is important for Democrats to get united to win the general election in November," added McGovern. "That is why I have made the statement that I have."

McGovern, while a senior member of the Democratic party, is not a superdelegate, so his change of heart does not influence the numbers.

Another sign of a campaign that is winding down is the fact that recent reports have shown that Clinton has loaned her campaign 6.4 million dollars since the beginning of April, and is seriously short of funds. In comparison, the Obama campaign continues to be flush with cash, and he has been able to significantly outspend Clinton.

Ardent Clinton supporters insist that she can still win and should not give up. At least in public, Clinton echoes them, though she has hinted that she may drop out of the race when and if Obama has the required number of total delegates, telling reporters, "I will stop when there is a nominee." However, true to her fighting temperament, she added that she still hoped that she would be that nominee.

Should we look at the math again? Even Clinton’s campaign has admitted that there is no way she can possibly make up the pledged delegates now, with six primaries and 217 pledged delegates left to divvy up. Clinton would have to win 194.5 of those remaining 217 delegate votes to catch Obama’s current 172-point pledged delegate lead. That’s 90% of the remaining votes.

Still, there are some 267 remaining undecided superdelegates, and Clinton hopes to convince them to pledge their allegiance to her. Some have said they would pledge according to the voting results of their local districts, so it’s possible she may gain a few. But otherwise, there is just no logical reason for them to support her.

Some would argue that the Clinton campaign has long operated on principles other than logic, since she’s still hanging in there.

And, say Clinton supporters, what about Michigan and Florida? What about them? A Clinton campaign staffer confirmed with the press that even if Clinton received every vote from those two states that she wants, it would only close the gap between her and Obama by about 60 delegate votes, at most.

For his part, Obama now has less than 200 delegate votes to go before clinching the nomination. To be exact, he needs 177, according to the hot website "Democratic Convention 2008 Watch," or DemCon Watch as it’s popularly known. (Go to demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html, if your idea of fun is keeping your own minute-by-minute tally of the delegates and superdelegates). According to DemCon Watch, Obama’s total delegate count as of Wednesday afternoon was 1847.5 to Clinton’s 1697. And Clinton’s superdelegate lead continues to dwindle, with the site having her at 269.5 superdelegates to Obama’s 258.

There’s not much else to say. The press has all but guaranteed Obama’s win, and sentiment toward Clinton, at least as of this moment, has turned respectful as would be expected for someone who’s given it her all. Many leaders in the Democratic party have said now is the time to step back and allow Clinton to come to her own decision to withdraw, something that surely will not be easy for her.

"It would be inappropriate and awkward and wrong for any of us to tell Senator Clinton when it is time for the race to be over,'' said Senator Claire McCaskill (D-MO), an Obama supporter. "This is her decision and it is only her decision, and we are confident she is going to do the right thing for the Democratic nominee."

For now, the race continues, though it is all but over.

In fact, I think I see the conductor warming up the orchestra for that fat lady’s song.