Is Narendra Modi Peaking Too Soon?

These days, it seems that every time you switch on a television news channel, Narendra Modi is obstreperously in your face. Whether it be calling Priyanka Gandhi a gudiya, or proclaiming his own martyrdom at the hands of the Supreme Court, the man derives positive pleasure in shooting his mouth off. His latest salvo is against the Prime Minister for not doing enough for the Sikhs in Pakistan who are being persecuted by the Taliban. Of course, he conveniently omits to elaborate what he would do if he was in power – or the fact that the Pakistani government has bluntly told ours to mind its own business. Here is a man who dearly loves the sound of his own voice.

There is no denying the man’s charisma or his political astuteness. It is what has enabled him to achieve demi-god status in Gujarat. He is a master at recognizing a political opportunity and capitalizing on it to the hilt – and nothing illustrates this better than the Godhra tragedy. It is now a given that Narendra Modi’s name will forever be inextricably linked with Godhra. However, far from regarding this as an embarrassment, he shamelessly capitalizes on it. But only when it suits his purpose. Despite his public posturing as the poster boy of Hindu asmita, it is not a cause he would blindly espouse if he thought it would jeopardize his political ambition. If, at some point in the future, it became politically expedient to embrace Indian Muslims in his fold, he would do so in a heartbeat. The only cause Narendra Modi passionately believes in is Narendra Modi.

That said, there is no denying that Modi is a Machiavellian manipulator of public sentiments. I have many Gujarati friends and they are as tolerant and accommodating as any other community. One would have expected that the post-Godhra carnage would have horrified them and engendered a feeling of revulsion. Modi, however, has so skillfully succeeded in demonizing Gujarat’s Muslim community that even educated Gujaratis are today convinced that, if it hadn’t been for Modi, Gujarat would soon have been taken over by the Muslims. Of course, having planted the seed in the mind of Gujarat’s Hindus – and convinced them of his indispensability – he promptly moved on to development issues and projecting himself as a superb administrator.

These days, there is a big brouhaha about Modi as a future Prime Minister; and it is no doubt actively encouraged by the man himself. However, I can’t help wondering if his legendary sense of timing has failed him this time – if he has peaked too soon. For all his self importance and supreme confidence in his own abilities, the fact is that Modi is a hero only in his home state. The rest of the country regards him with a certain amount of skepticism; even suspicion. Having watched television footage of his public rallies outside Gujarat, I get the impression that the crowds have gathered more to be entertained than to be convinced. His speeches provide good tamasha, but I am not sure that he is consolidating his position as a future leader of entire India.

I believe, for once, Modi has overplayed his hand. He is astute enough to realize that the earliest he can hope to achieve his national ambition is 2014. The sensible thing to do would have been to quietly consolidate his standing outside Gujarat; and burst forth on the national scene just before the 2014 general election. Five years, after all, is an eternity in politics. By declaring himself too soon, he has given his political opponents – and there are many who privately despise him - within his own party sufficient time to plot his downfall. Over-ambition always carries with it the risk of cockiness. The temptation to overreach oneself can sometimes be irresistible. Hitler – to whom Modi has been sometimes compared – found that out to his cost. Narendra Modi may too.