Where to invest when the housing bubble bursts

The short answer – Washington State. In a May 2006 forecast by Fiserv Lending Solutions and Moody's Economy.com, 10 Washington cities were listed in the top 17 for nationwide highest home value appreciation for the 12 month period of June 2006 to June 2007. All 10 were predicted to see from 10.5% to as high as 16.7% appreciation. The number two city for the entire nation was Wenatchee, second to Panama City, FL.

More recently, the housing market news has mostly been negative. Is the bubble bursting? Will housing prices go down? According to the National Association of Realtors, the October Pending Home Sales Index showed that pending home sales are up, indicating stabilization is taking place in the housing market. The index was up 4.3% to a level of 110.1. While this is lower than the previous year, it is still 10% higher than the benchmark 2001 value. Regionally, the index in the West rose over 9%.

With long-term mortgage rates still in the high 5% to low 6% range according to Spokane mortgage broker, Michael Sanborn, investors would be wise to consider, among other areas, these Washington markets: Wenatchee, Mount Vernon, Olympia, Yakima, Spokane, Bremerton, Longview and the Tri-Cities. All of these areas have a median price of under $200,000 as of the May 2006 forecast. Spokane real estate agent, and owner of Saint Lawrence Mortgage, Michael Sanborn says the combination of interest rates and home values throughout Washington State makes this a great time to invest.

Other Washington State cities that are on the list include Seattle, Everett and Tacoma, but the median price is much higher in these areas making it difficult for investors with little down payment to have positive cash flow. Liberty Lake real estate, a city outside of Spokane near the Idaho border, has also seen double digit appreciation over the last 5 years.