How the West will Lose the Entire Caucasus Area

The present leaders of Russia have understood that Russia’s survival as state within the current borders will be decided in the mountainous Caucasus region. They therefore pursue a bold policy, counting on divergence of approaches and reactions between Europe and America.

The divergence between Europe and America is real and deep; it is reflected in the two large countries’ different policies with respect to Russia. The division of the West is viewed as an advantage by Russia. The divisions of the Islamic world consist in a complementary advantage for the leaders of Kremlin. Finally, the gravely anti-Islamic predisposition of both, America and Europe, is an additional element taken by Russia into account.

The shrunk presentation of the Caucasus geo-strategic game as a merely economic affair, as commonly undertaken and believed in the West, plays also into the Russian game; it consists in a sheer Western aberration and ignorance of the Russian expansionism’s most fundamental axioms.

The Russians certainly do not want the Caucasus region to become an independent and rival system of energy delivery; nothing would be worse for Moscow than a strong Turkish – Georgian – Azeri alliance linked with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and superimposed on the Iran – Russia axis. Nothing; at the financial-economic level.

But at the geo-political and geo-strategic levels there is something far worse for Kremlin than the prevention of Russian control of Europe’s energy needs. It is the survival of Russia itself.

Despite the short memory and poor understanding by which Western politicians, diplomats, academia and statesmen are characterized, Russians know very well that if they don’t manage to eliminate every voice calling for freedom, national liberation, independence, and secession in the Northern Caucasus region, eventually the entire Russian colonial empire in Asia and Europe, the world’s largest state even after the decomposition of the USSR, will melt down, leaving Russia with ca. 100 million people and a territory similar to that of India.

The formation of a confederate state through the unification of Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan is not only instrumental in canceling the Russian dreams for harbours in the Southern Seas and control of the Middle East; it is also imperative for the further fueling of coordinated action in Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan.

I will expand further on the subject in forthcoming articles; here I republish the Media Note released by the State Department and the remarks made by Henrietta H. Fore, USAID Administrator and Director of U.S. Foreign Assistance, on the occasion of the international donors’ conference for Georgia in Brussels on October 22. It bears witness to the extreme naivety that characterizes the West’s position toward Russia and the indifference by which America and Europe treat the Muslim Nations of the Northern Caucasus. This attitude will certainly become the reason for a European debacle.

U.S. Pledges $1 Billion in Assistance to Georgia
By Henrietta H. Fore, USAID Administrator and Director of U.S. Foreign Assistance

http://www.state.gov/f/releases/111153.htm

Remarks at the United States Mission to the European Union
Brussels, Belgium
October 22, 2008

(As prepared)

Mr. Chairmen, members of the Government of Georgia, fellow delegates:

We are here today to help Georgia recover from the August invasion by Russia.

We share a commitment to Georgia’s territorial integrity, to its economic and democratic development, and to its integration with neighboring countries and international institutions. That so many diverse countries and organizations chose to attend today shows that Georgia has many friends who want it to succeed.

The August conflict caused tremendous human suffering and dealt a severe blow to the Georgian economy. But more than two months since the initial crisis, it is clear that Georgia’s young democracy will endure. Its economy will recover. Its sovereignty will be reinforced.

Georgia’s impressive reforms since 2003 led to strong economic growth and made it, in the words of the World Bank, "the number one economic reformer in the world." Its progress in fighting corruption have made it a leader in the region. Georgia has also made great strides in democratic reform since the Rose Revolution, but much remains to be done. Its aspirations for Euro-Atlantic integration requires continued strengthening of checks and balances, which means greater civil society involvement in policy development, more judicial independence and a truly independent media. We applaud President Saakashvili’s stated commitment to a "new wave of democratic reform," and we stand ready to assist the government and the Georgian people in achieving a more democratic society.

The August conflict jeopardized all the achievements of the past five years. Georgia’s territorial integrity was violated. Regional stability was seriously disrupted. The international community quickly recognized the stakes, and responded immediately with diplomatic efforts, humanitarian aid, and financial stabilization assistance. But the road to a full recovery has just begun. The Joint Needs Assessment concludes that Georgia faces reconstruction and IDP resettlement costs of $415 million and a budget shortfall of $480 million in 2008 alone.

Today, the United States is pledging to make available $1 billion over the next two years to meet humanitarian needs and facilitate reconstruction. Our funds will assist internally displaced people, rebuild infrastructure, and help to reestablish growth and restore investor confidence in the Georgian economy. Recognizing the urgent nature of the challenge, the United States plans to make available by the end of 2008 approximately $720 million of the $1 billion we have pledged.

As the Joint Needs Assessment makes clear, the recovery of the Georgian economy requires immediate budget support. That is why later today I will sign an agreement with the Government of Georgia to provide $250 million in budget support. We strongly encourage other donors to provide direct budget support as well.

The United States is also providing $100 million for urgent civilian reconstruction and stabilization needs, and up to $80 million for economic reconstruction, assistance for displaced families, energy-related programs, and democracy activities. These resources will supplement other funds already redirected to assist Georgia: $100 million in new funding for Georgia’s Millennium Challenge Corporation Compact to address infrastructure and energy security needs; and $150 million in Overseas Private Investment Corporation support to make affordable mortgages available and to jump start property development projects. We have already provided approximately $40 million in humanitarian aid, and more is planned, especially as winter approaches.

As we and other donors deliver humanitarian aid, we are constantly reminded that the civilian population in Russian-occupied portions of Georgia remains vulnerable. Recent incidents include farmers being prevented from harvesting their crops and the denial of access to international food aid shipments. These examples point to the urgent need for EU and OSCE monitors to have access to civilians in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and, eventually, deployment of an international protective force. Unimpeded access for monitors bears directly on the security environment, which in turns bears directly on the ability of donors to deliver needed assistance to all parts of Georgia.

When we leave this conference today, our work will not be finished: we must implement our pledges by delivering assistance on the ground. And as we do so, tight coordination of donor efforts will be essential, particularly in Tbilisi and with the leadership of the Georgian government. The U.S. commits to full participation in this task.

All of our economies have been affected by the global financial crisis. This is not the easiest time to be seeking commitments of additional foreign aid. Yet the turnout and the pledges at today’s conference send a clear message: by strongly supporting Georgia’s economic recovery, the international community has made a choice. It has voted against the use of force to redraw international boundaries. It has voted for regional stability. And it has voted to give the people of Georgia a chance to build a more prosperous and more peaceful future for their country.

I thank you for your attention, and I look forward to learning more about other donors’ plans.

U.S. Pledges $1 Billion for Georgia at Donors’ Conference
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2008/oct/111151.htm

Media Note
Office of the Spokesman
Washington, DC
October 22, 2008

Director of U.S. Foreign Assistance and U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Administrator Henrietta Fore led the U.S. delegation to the international donors’ conference for Georgia in Brussels on October 22. The conference was co-chaired by the European Commission and the World Bank and co-hosted together with the French Presidency and the incoming Czech Presidency of the Council of the European Union. During the conference, Director Fore joined with leaders from the international community and multilateral organizations to affirm support for Georgia in the wake of the August 2008 conflict and formally pledged $1 billion in U.S. aid to support Georgia’s economic recovery, as previously announced by the President and Secretary of State on September 3. Other international donors followed the U.S. lead and according to conference organizers pledged $4.55 billion against the World Bank-led needs assessment target of $3.2 billion. This breaks down as $3.7 billion in public loans and grants and $850 million from private donors.

Over the next two years, the United States’ $1 billion dollar economic support package will provide for efforts to assist internally displaced people, rebuild infrastructure, restore economic growth, and sustain investor confidence in the Georgian economy as well as foster continued democratic reform and energy security.

While in Brussels, Director Fore also signed an agreement with Georgian Finance Minister Nikoloz Gilauri to provide $250 million in budgetary support to the Georgian government as part of the United States’ $1 billion economic support package. The sudden and unplanned increase in government expenditures caused by the conflict has created a need for budgetary support, and this agreement will enable financial support to begin to flow to the Georgian government within a matter of weeks.

This $1 billion pledge is in addition to previously planned bilateral assistance of approximately $100 million over next two years. The United States has provided Georgia with over $1.89 billion to support its democratic, economic, and social development since 1992.

2008/902

Released on October 22, 2008]

Note
Picture: National liberation efforts and event frequency in Northern Caucasus
From: http://www.colorado.edu/ibs/waroutcomes/