History of Exit Polls

Exit polls are conducted after the voters exit from the polling station on the election day. People conducting exit polls are known as pollsters. Usually, media representatives are considered as pollsters; they ask the voters about their vote in the ongoing election. This way, data is collected to estimate the figure regarding the number of votes that a candidate is likely to get in the election. Thus, before the actual results are declared, the pollsters project the winner of the election. A similar poll, known as an entrance poll, is conducted before the voters actually exercise their vote at election time. Likewise, in an opinion poll, random samples on public opinion are collected.

History of Exit Polls

The first time exit polls were used as a tool to predict the winner in an election was in 1967. This major exit poll was conducted by Warren Mitofsky for a media network in the Kentucky governor's election. Exit polls are also used by candidates to collect demographic data for predicting the election results. It is also practiced as a method for checking election fraud.

The major flaw of exit polling was seen in the 1980 presidential election, in which the NBC (National Broadcasting Company) projected Ronald Reagan as the winner over Jimmy Carter, two hours prior to the closing of the polls in the western states. The early announcement of the winner depressed the voters. In such a situation, there is also a possibility of the voters changing their mind. In this case, the consequence was that voters no longer voted after the result of the exit poll had been declared. Since then, laws have been enacted, in many states, limiting exit polls. For example, in Hawaii's statute, exit polling is not allowed within 1,000 feet of the polling stations.

In the 1990s, a consortium called Voter News Service (VNS), was formed by major news networks. The main purpose behind the formation of VNS was to reduce the redundancy of reports from the major media networks. However, in 2000, the VNS faced major criticism, when they announced Al Gore as the President of the United States at around 8 pm. The following morning at 2 am, VNS made another announcement, declaring George W. Bush as the winner. Following this incident, a new pollster replaced VNS.

In 2002, National Election Pool (NEP) was formed as a consortium, to serve as a major network for exit polls. The members of NEP include ABC News, CBS News, CNN, Associated Press, Fox News and NBC News. However, NEP was disbanded in 2004, when an exit poll data was leaked and made available online. In 2006, several measures like changing representatives of NEP, have been undertaken to safeguard the results of the exit poll data.

In recent times, for conducting an exit poll, specific polling stations in a state are selected, where interviewers question the voters at specific intervals (for example, every 5th or 10th voter). The interviewer hands over a questionnaire to a voter who is willing to participate in the poll. The questionnaire consists of questions about the choice of candidate and the reason for voting for the candidate. Though it has been observed that 50% of the voters may be unwilling to participate in the exit polls, it is still being used as a tool to predict the election results worldwide.