Hispanic Vote Swings Back to the Democrats

By Anastacia Mott Austin

The big issue on many Latino voters’ minds is immigration, says a new survey recently released from the Pew Hispanic Center, a non-partisan research organization.

While this may seem obvious, it appears that the immigration issue is more on the minds of Hispanic voters than during the 2004 election campaign. In 2004, 63% of Hispanic voters said that immigration was "a very important issue." This year, it’s up to 79%. This portends poorly for the top Republican candidates, especially Guiliani and Romney, who have set their platforms on stronger immigration laws.

The survey was conducted by phone, and included 2,003 self-identified Hispanic respondents, 843 of whom were registered voters. The margin of error for the survey is 2.7 points.

Fifty-seven percent of registered Latino voters say they are Democrats; only 23% identify as Republican. This is a return to 1999 numbers, the last time the gap between the parties was this high.

And while the GOP may take comfort in the fact that Latinos only comprise 6.5% of the voter population (despite being 15% of the general population), there is a real chance that the change in party allegiance could swing some of the states that were barely "in the red" in 2004, like New Mexico, Florida, and Colorado. Those electoral votes add up, especially in recent tight Presidential elections.

In addition, the record 40% of Hispanic voters that reportedly supported George Bush in 2004 is unlikely to be duplicated by any of the 2008 GOP candidates.

Among registered Democratic Latino voters, 59% are supporting Hillary Clinton, 15% are for Barack Obama, and 8% for Hispanic candidate Bill Richardson.

Richard Fry, co-author of the survey report and a researcher for the Pew Center, told reporters, "Earlier in the decade, Hispanics were warming up to the Republican party. But at least at the moment, there has clearly been a turn in another direction. It may be the case that the debate on illegal immigration and the [positions] the parties are staking out on immigration has begun to change Hispanic party affiliations."

But it’s not all confetti for the Democrats. While 44% of survey respondents said that the Democratic party had more concern for their issues, and 8% said Republicans, a whopping 41% said that neither party seemed to have Latino voters as a high priority.