Handicapping in NFL - Relevancy of Passing Yards

Does it really have a positive effect on game resolution, or it does not?

I'm gonna begin widely with this one, looking at all teams which have averagely more passing yards than their opposition.

Outcome is 49,1% win vs spread.

So they are wrong, one will say. I don't think they are mistaken on which is the better team. As these squads are favorites more than dogs. Amateur wagerers don't understand the math of betting. One must regularly match squads vs spread, and not only vs. another squad. According to my info 70% amateur handicappers lay their green on favs.

Now what if superior passing squad is lets say, 50 or more yards better on avg. It is even worse - they are 48,8 against the spread. You would come to similar outcome if you take a look at teams offensive and defensive passing yards. Teams which pass more than they allow, are not doing well also .

What if we combine these two components together? The results follow.

Team has more offensive than defensive yards and is better passing team in selected game - 48,4% on a very big sample.

Same, yet with minimum 50 yards difference now - 46,7 % ATS.

Here is the point: don't put too much on passing capability, it moves line too much. Better passing squads obviously get too much respect from the crowd.

Hey, but what about above average defensive teams that don't concede too passes? We might have something here. Teams giving up less passing yards than their opposition are 50,8% ATS. Looks like we got it. Let summarize.

Amateur bettors enjoy to wager on teams with quarterbacks passing a lot. It looks attractive, and makes Occasional handicappers believe they put money on sure thing, when they should wager the opposite.

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