Fear Is The Key – Why Obama May Not Be A Shoo-In

If the polls and CNN are to be believed, Barack Obama has already won the US election; and John McCain is merely going through the motions. Sarah Palin is an entertaining sideshow; and Joe Biden continues to regale the American public with foot-in-the-mouthitis. Obama has an invincible lead; and it is all over bar the shouting.

Obama is already playing out the part of the victor. He doesn’t really need to campaign any more; and even a fortnight before the election, he can afford to take a two day break to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii. Indeed, that apparently selfless gesture will probably pay him political dividends. It portrays him as a devoted family man who puts familial obligations above political ambition – even when the prize is as immense as the US Presidency. Even his magnanimous acknowledgement of McCain as an American hero is beginning to sound slightly condescending and subtly clever. It’s all about the economy, stupid, right? So the country needs a man of intellect at the helm, right? American heroes tend to get associated with brawn rather than brain – not quite the type of man needed to cope with the worst recession since 1929.

McCain, on the other hand, comes across as a desperate man who is running out of ideas. The constant digs at Obama’s apparently non-existent "record"; and as a naïve charlatan who wants to "spread the wealth around" – as if that was some unspeakable socialist crime – are starting to wear a little thin. I heard a political commentator on CNN advising McCain to read the writing on the wall and go out with dignity. But McCain doesn’t seem to get it. Perhaps, just perhaps, he knows something that many Americans – and I – don’t.

A couple of years ago, my wife and I spent two weeks with some American friends at Ojai, in Southern California. It was an overwhelmingly conservative, Baptist community. I grew to appreciate how overwhelmingly Republican they were in their political leanings; and what an important part the Church played in their lives. This was the time when the Iraq situation was totally chaotic; and regarded as one of the worst foreign policy blunders in US history. Nonetheless, their support remained firm. Sure they acknowledged that Bush made mistakes – and even that he was not the brightest bulb in the chandelier – but he was one of them, a man who believed in Jesus, and that overrode everything else.

In this election, another factor has been added to that blind faith in the Republican candidate – fear. As one white man spoke out in one of McCain’s town hall meetings, he is really mad at the very possibility of someone like Obama becoming President. I think what he really meant that he was afraid – as are millions of Americans who live in the "red" states – particularly those in the "bible belt". For them, Obama is a smooth talking outsider with no strong religious convictions. They are ready to believe even outlandish innuendos that he is a closet Muslim, a sort of Islamist-Manchurian Candidate with a hidden agenda to undermine the very foundations of their church. The very idea of such a man sitting in the White House is inconceivable to them. Even more, it terrifies them.

One must never forget that fear is a very powerful motivator. Democrats would be greatly distressed if their man lost, but they would accept it stoically. Remember there was hardly a murmur when John Kerry lost; with many Democrats even grudgingly accepting later that he wasn’t cut out for the job. For the conservative Republicans, however, it is not about politics – it is about survival. They would not accept an Obama Presidency with equanimity. They would regard is as a national disaster. Desperate men resort to desperate measures. I am not suggesting that they would stoop to underhand measures. But they may make a Herculean effort to get out the vote out among their own than ever before in US history. That is why, if I was a Democrat, I would hold the celebrations a while longer.