Democrat's Stalemate Bodes Well For John McCain

This should be a year that the Democratic Party sweeps to victory. The Democrats have an unpopular Republican war in Iraq to talk about. President George W. Bush is very unpopular in all the national public opinion polls. The Republican brand of less government, lower taxes, and less spending has been badly damaged during the last few years of dubious congressional stewardship. In addition, the next several months are likely to bring the prospect of an economic recession to the country.

Indeed, the reasons that should cheer any Democratic voter's heart seems to go on and on. The choice of John McCain for the Presidential nomination means that the Republican Party will feature the oldest Presidential candidate in history. In addition, McCain has alienated Republican conservatives and, therefore, the Republican party is not united and less than enthusiastic for the general election in the fall. Also, it is a year that the voters are unimpressed with old time politicians and established political institutions and are interested in change. Both Democratic candidates should appeal to the public's desire for change in that they are the first black man and the first female running as major candidates for the highest office in the land.

However, the Democrats are engaged in a tedious and increasingly contentious primary election gridlock. Compromised by dubious convention rules, it is an election that never seems to end even though in reality it is already over. Hillary Clinton cannot catch Barack Obama in the number of pledged delegates or popular vote. The Democratic Party will not overturn the will of the primary voter and alienate black voters. So, it is an election campaign that Hillary Clinton has already lost but will not concede. The print and television media use the relative closeness of the race and ambiguous Democratic convention rules to continue the false illusion of a tight down to the wire battle between the two candidates. The end result of all this appears to be stalemate for several more months.

So, every day, the Democratic primary election becomes more personal and contentious without apparent reason. We hear references to Monica Lewinsky's black dress from the Obama campaign to bring back our memories of the personal failings in office of President Bill Clinton. The dubious speeches of Obama's retired pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright seen in print, television news, and You tube underscore the divisive issue of race that has recently entered into the campaign.

Indeed, each candidate's campaign issues political statements of personal destruction: Barack Obama is only where he is because he is a black man according to Geraldine Ferraro. Hillary Clinton is a monster according to an aide to Barack Obama. Bill Richardson is Judas for endorsing Obama according to James Carville. All of these headlines have appeared in just the last couple of weeks and there is no end to it yet in sight.

This contentious, personal, primary election is also dividing the Democratic Party voter base. Recent exit polling data from the Pennsylvania primary mirror national polling that indicates about 20% of each candidate's base of support would not vote for the other Democratic candidate in the fall election. A Gallup poll indicates that nearly 30% of Hillary Clinton supporters nationally will not support another Democratic nominee in the fall.

Meanwhile, Republican John McCain looks very Presidential as he takes a foreign tour and raises money for the 2008 general election this fall. Next, he plans to do a national tour highlighting his background and visiting areas in the country where recent public opinion polls have begun to show weakness for Barack Obama. (Blue collar white voters and Latino voters). Of course, McCain will continue to raise money to prepare for the fall election campaign while the Democrats continue to spend millions on their remaining state primaries.

The contrast between the two political parties has begun to show up in the public opinion polling data for the general election campaign in the fall as well. It should be no surprise that the Republicans are the beneficiary. John McCain now leads Barack Obama by ten percentage points in a national match up. This is a reversal of the polling statistics of just one month ago. In addition, McCain has hit his highest voter favor ability rating (56%-Rasmussen) while Obama has just attained his highest voter unfavorabilty rating of (52%-Rasmussen). Polling in many electoral states crucial to a November Republican Presidential election victory also show a movement of voter support to John McCain. If this Democratic stalemate continues for another three months, public opinion concerning each of the Democratic candidates could get even worse.

An unpopular Iraq war and the failing economy are opportunities for a Democratic sweep in the 2008 Presidential election. However, a contentious primary election stalemate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for another three months would continue to hurt the Democratic Party in the fall general election campaign. It certainly does appear that this bitter Democratic primary election stalemate bodes well for Republican, John McCain.

James William Smith has worked in senior management positions for some of the largest financial services firms in the United States for the last twenty five years. He has also provided business consulting support for insurance organizations and start up businesses. Mr. Smith has a Bachelor of Science Degree from Boston College. He enjoys writing articles on political, national, and world events. Visit his website at http://www.eworldvu.com