How Much China Could Concede?

It is quite expected of the allied countries to be pressing for stiff sanctions against North Korea now that they have opened Pandora's Box. China has been a source of fuel, energy and food for N Korea. Now the major and probably the only erstwhile ally, is looking to distance it.

It would have its reasons. It has of late, opened up its market to greater foreign direct investment (FDI). Corporations in the US see potential for the manufacturing and services sectors. They are pumping more and more capital into the Chinese market. Though India is lower still in terms of wages, Chinese dominance in the electronics sector cannot be neglected. This being the case, China is forced to consider the economic implications of its future support to N Korea.

At the same time, to what extent it is willing to walk the line is difficult to say. The US is quite jumpy in nuclear matters given its own political situation. China, and countries like India, with who the US is in the process of building a long term energy relationship, will find themselves at a risk of losing out on their deal. Members of the Congress who are opposed to the nuclear deal, are however one up; they could site the supposed N Korea misadventure as a reason to revisit their nuclear plans vis-à-vis other developing nations.

At a time when the five permanent members of the Security Council are scampering around continents checking nuclear growth, this is quite an unsettling development. It might, alternately, fuel an arms race, which has never been witnessed before, with the aim of nuclear deterrence. Why, South Korea is already assessing its nuclear capability, preparing itself for a nuclear assault if any. Japan however has made it clear that it is going to stick to status quo of no nuclear armaments. It has vowed, so to say, to never resort to usage of atomic weapons. That should put the world at relative ease.

The powers that be have mishandled the situation by repeated use of coercion. The US has in the past called for repeated inspection of N Korea’s weapon facilities, with the usual backing from the Blair government. N Korea has been pushed to the edge and probably found no other way out, as it perceived its neighbors as threats to its national security. Another point of note is that the devastation in Iraq, at the pretence of Iraq’s possession of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), was carried out, instead, because Iraq was not in possession of any, lest it put them to use against its aggressor. Iran could be next, if it crosses the line.

The focus so far has been on nuclear non-proliferation instead of nuclear disarmament which, if given higher priority could lead to a more constructive dialogue and prevent new countries from gate-crashing into the nuclear club. The permanent members could and probably should now look to nuclear down-sizing. It could pave a way for non-nuclear nations to have lesser qualms about national security. It could be a confidence building measure since the nuclear powers are seen as hypocritical, promoting nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament while being in possession of the same.