ARS Meeting in Yemen, and the Future of Somalia

Another opportunity to constructively engage in the path of Somalia’s pacification, reunification and rehabilitation is offered to all factions of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia thanks the Yemenite initiative and the invitation of the wings of ARS to Sanaa for deliberations and consultations.

ARS has a brief history, but encapsulates the longest and the most fervent hopes of the outright majority of the Somalis as regards an augur and propitious, prosperous and serene Somalia. It is only normal that not all the members of this wide political range constellation see developments – and more particularly the recently signed Djibouti Agreement – in the absolutely same way.

Even there is no need for this; a rich political environment featuring a variety of opinions and approaches only underscores Somalia’s opulent historical record and magnificent contribution to African and Islamic History. But, within this context, one must specify the limits of the Somali opposition’s political landscape. These are fixed by the following points:

The Limits of the Somali Opposition’s Political Landscape

Point 1. Majority decisions do not eradicate the minority’s approach to an issue, in a true democracy; they only compose with that tenant. This is true for every democratic country, and we know very well how many times European and American administrations (conventionally and at times erratically considered as authentically democratic) acted overwhelmingly against the opinion of the minority, being thus led to political impasse. Somalia’s modern history shows that this is not an option in Somalia either.

Point 2. Minority has to respect the majority decision, and as it happens allover the world, after the acceptance of the fact that an opposite idea is accepted by the majority, the minority starts efforts to limit the consequences of the decision, gradually modify it, and ultimately advance their approach.

Point 3. To effectively act in the aforementioned way, the minority must stay ‘in’. If the political institution (party, movement, organization or alliance) is finally divided, the minority hands are certainly free but their political impact is dramatically limited.

Point 4. Procedures must be transparent, member trust and mutual solidarity should be top priority, and the right titles and authority of every ARS official and representative should be clearly spelled out.

A Plan for Somalia’s Reconstruction, and Basics of Somali Foreign Policy

The two factions of ARS should consider their plan for Somalia’s liberation, pacification, reunification and rehabilitation, while at the same time they must detect, analyze and assess various foreign plans that go in the opposite direction as theirs.

An effort to shape a basic approach to what the foreign policy of Somalia should be will also help ARS members come closer, divide tasks, and identify targets for every one.

The positive consequence of the Djibouti Agreement is that by now ARS is already an internationally accredited Somali political organization, and this enables contacts of international character.

This consists in an excellent opportunity for any faction of ARS to publicize their approach and gain support in view of the gigantic task of Somalia’s pacification and reconstruction.

Perception of Threats

Due to Somalia’s recent past, Somalia’s foreign policy must be first a clear perception of existing threats and related intentions. Even if the Abyssinian soldiers leave at the end of the specified period of 120 days, as stated in the Djibouti Agreement, this does not signify that Abyssinia’s evil plans vanished and anti-Somali intentions disappeared.

In addition, it would be infantile to imagine that the traditional colonial plans of England and the US, which are responsible for Somalia’s long lasted Civil War, evaporated because of the brave fight of the Shebab.

Abyssinia certainly cannot afford to continue fighting in Somalia; Abyssinia is not a big nation. It is an appalling tyranny made out of a vertical ethno-religious divide between the ruling Monophysitic Amhara and Tigray Abyssinians (who total ca. 18% of the country’s population) and all the rest, the tyrannized nations and oppressed religious minorities (82%). The thugs sent to Somalia, impersonating soldiers of a supposed ‘national’ army, are in their quasi-totality Monophysitic Amhara and Tigray Abyssinians (ca. 15 million people). They cannot afford to receive so many coffins back home in Gonder or Mekele.

This means that the colonial supporters and allies of Abyssinia, the English and the pro-English part of the American establishment (Jendayi Frazer being one of their typical representatives) will have now an interest to terminate the Somalia quagmire and save their ailing ally.

It would be over-simplistic to imagine that you will make them fail, by denying them the process and fighting until an irreversible victory in the battlefield, which will not come. In politics, synergy is the choice, whereas the waste of one’s resources cannot possibly be an option. Certainly, Somalia owns millions of brave young men who are ready to die for the liberation of their country, but is it not a case of political immorality, opportunism and irrelevance, if the Somali political leadership can bring forth a political solution, but instead, they don’t proceed so, and in this way they let the Somali Youth die?

The lowest national cost, the lowest degree of wasting resources, the greatest economy for Somalia’s foremost wealth, namely the Somali Youth, must be option no 1 for all factions of the political establishment of ARS.

In addition, if the US – UK diplomacy and administrations want to give peace a chance now, this does not mean that they imply they would accept (let alone contribute to) the formation of a great, independent, reunited, rehabilitated and prosperous Somalia. The patriotic forces of Somalia will have to anticipate biases, machinations, and malignant plotting in the process.

However, denying to get engaged in the process simply reveals political weakness, fear and simplistic mindset; these are not qualifications allowing leaders to save their countries. Certainly, no one has to be born as another Machiavelli or Talleyrand but in this case, he/she should leave space to others who better qualify for the job.

Ion fact, there cannot be any doubt about the US – UK persistence in
a) preserving Abyssinia’s integrity,
b) minimizing the extent of China’s and Italy’s involvement in Somalia, and
c) eternalizing Somalia’s division – in peace.

Another threat is the US – UK willingness to use ARS in a way to finally help TFG to survive, the Abyssinian army to leave Somalia, and a shaky provisory government of national unity to be formed, until the rich, US-based Somali Diaspora pumps money in the pre-electoral period to help Sheikh Sharif … lose the elections.

But again this does not consist in a reason for fear; counter-measures exist at the political level, and the world is full of influential administrations and centers of power that would do their ingenious best to contribute to the US – UK plan’s failure.

All together!

In fact, if we assume that, following the use of conventional colonial trickeries (an amalgamation of money, flatter and promises) made by US and UK, one faction of the ARS may fall victim of the plot, we have to conclude that there is more than one reason for the other faction to stay united with the first in order to
1) minimize damages,
2) contain his decisions’ impact, and
3) better identify the true purposes (as per point) of Somalia’s enemies.

What better political tools can there be, other than presence, attendance, consultation, deliberation, negotiation and (in every point) mutual political compromise, to help minimize the extent of any scheming?

Old colonial trickery and machinations

In the development of political situations, there are always points ‘offered’ by the enemy. The US – UK diplomats knew beforehand that, by supporting the signature of an agreement between TFG and ARS in Djibouti, they give the Somali oposition a tool, a weapon, a key, namely the aforementioned ‘success’, the status of the internationally recognized interlocutor.

This was a risk they took; to limit its effect, they counted on two points:

1. Containing Sheikh Sharif and Sharif Hassan Aden through personal contacts and beforehand compromises (of the sort ‘I will do this, but you will not do that or you will not speak with these guys’) and

2. Isolating and marginalizing all those around Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and Dr. Zakaria Haji Abdi (as they expect them to react to Sheikh Sharif and Sharif Hassan Aden, and get marginalized by themselves – tactics called Prisoner’s Dilemma).

How to Outmaneuver the Colonial, US – UK plans and trickery

The most cost-effective way to face a great power (and/or a superpower) is not a frontal attack; it is the introduction of new players into the game – per case. These other factors that would be of greater help are those who are the right enemies of Somalia’s enemies; here I don’t need to refer to Abyssinia.

Certainly, the concept of a balanced cooperation between Eritrea and Somalia, and at the present stage between the Eritrean administration and the Somali opposition is not bad in itself, but the limits of help extended by Eritrea to the Somali opposition are ostensible. Eritrea can ensure mere survival and daily fight against the lawless Abyssinian invaders of Somalia. The Somali opposition definitely needs more.

In addition, Abyssinia may be a traditional enemy of Somalia, but the equally starving and impoverished country fails to be the top threat for Somalia.

Somalia’s foremost enemies are the following: UK, France and USA. However, one should not consider the entire American establishment as enemy of Somalia; its pro-English part is – only. Certainly, that part prevails in America (they sided with England against Argentina in the Falklands War), but America’s anti-English part is not weak whatsoever. All ARS factions should therefore restrain from frontally attacking America; instead, they should open some channels to the ‘other’ part of the American establishment; Obama seems to be one of them.

Which country’s influence in Somalia do UK and France want to eliminate? This is the top question that leads to the key answer as regards the Somali foreign policy. The answer is easy and obvious; it’s the country that helped Somalia draft its constitution in the early 60s. That constitution was not too bad after all; it could work, but efforts were made against it, mostly by the English.

Italy and Vatican

It sounds as an absurdity, but it is true indeed; nowadays, the country that could help Somalia most is the old colonial power, Italy. Today’s Italy is not Mussolini’s Italy. As genuinely anti-colonial country, Italy recently returned a historical stele (‘hawalti’ in Tigrinya) taken and transported to Rome in the 1930s from Aksum. Contrarily to Italy’s present anti-colonial stance, a great number of Ancient Egyptian obelisks still decorate squares in colonial France, England, and America….

The real power behind Italy is Vatican and the resources it controls in Europe, Northern America, and mostly Latin America. Vatican is not necessarily a realm of innocent and benevolent people, and they have had throughout History an incredible record of intolerance against Jews, Eastern Christians (Orthodox, Monophysitic {Tewahedo in Ge’ez} and Nestorian) and Muslims (not to mention the butchery of the anti-Catholic Europeans during the Middle Ages, and the slaughtering of Pre-Colombian Americans, the Mayas, the Aztecs and the Incas at the times of the Discovery of America).

However, post-World War II Vatican has been an embattled institution, due to the Freemasonic – Zionist aggression against them at all levels, political, economic, cultural, academic, intellectual.

In our world, whereby the anti-Islamic hatred and hysteria of the Freemasonic – Zionist establishment goes beyond imagination, Vatican and Italy (and their associates in the US, other European countries and Latin America) can be of valuable help and possible partners for Muslims eager to find partners in a search for moral values, human principles, and ethics.

Part of the Italian establishment (particularly circles close to Premier Berlusconi and Senator Giulio Andreotti – shamefully and undeservedly slandered by English and French Freemasonic mass media) would be very content to encounter some Somali interlocutors and deal with them for the pacification and reconstruction of Somalia. Italy and Vatican can mobilize unexpected partners and contributors to Somalia’s re-unification, pacification and rehabilitation.

Turkey, Japan, Poland, Malaysia, Taiwan, Venezuela

Other players could involve Turkey (mostly the military establishment – the Erdogan government is all full of Anglo-French puppets), Japan, Poland (drastically anti-French), Malaysia, Taiwan, Venezuela, Mexico, Argentina, and to lesser extent India, Iran, Brazil and Ireland.

Finally, I doubt whether Russia and China, establishments accustomed to quantitative approaches (most erroneously for their own interests), could ever be of help, as their perception of Africa leaves intact the cornerstones of the Anglo-French colonialism.

These thoughts are simply describing the vast possibilities existing for all factions of ARS to get engaged in the struggle for taking Somalia out of the strife and the despair.

Frontal ‘No’ proved to fail in Somalia; all Somalis know this – only too well.

Now, it’s the time for Nuanced ‘Yes’.

I am sure the leaders and the members of ARS can see this in the eyes of all their compatriots. They only thing they have to do is just look at them.

I republish here recent reports and news selected from various Somali and Oromo portals. At the end, I add a meaningful feature published by an astute Somali commentator, Mr. Abdinasir Mohamed Guled, on some comments expressed by the American ambassador as regards Abyssinia’s role in Somalia (supposedly positive!). It shows very well that the US support for a sort of peace in Somalia does not imply a change of attitude toward Abyssinia; for the time being.

However, through correct contacts and adequate lobbying, it can change in the future; not a single Somali should view the present US administration’s stance as permanent.

A delegation from Alliance for Reliberation of Somalia has arrived in Yemen capital, San'a to take ARS’s meeting opened in Yemen

http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=6618&tirsan=3

The delegates flew from Djibouti and Asmara.

The delegation from Djibouti is led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmad [leader of the Alliance for Reliberation of Somalia], but reports say he did not go directly to the venue of the talks between the two rival sides.

Yemeni officials say the parliamentary Speaker of Yemen has called the two sides and asked them to work together in pacifying Somalia and the implementation of the peace deal which the government signed in Djibouti last month.

A positive outcome is expected to come out of the meeting as officials at the meeting told Mareeg online.

Reports say Yemen is hopeful that lasting peace will be restored in Somalia. According to some reports, there were preliminary talks through telephone presumably between Yemen officials and two rival sides within the Somali opposition alliance.

Sheikh Hasan Dahir Aweys, who is opposed to the Djibouti peace deal between the Somali government and the Alliance for Reliberation of Somalia, has said the deal is against Somalia's interests but he didn’t rebuff the involvement of the meeting.

He has said he will not attend the talks in Yemen, but promised to support the outcome.

Somali political analysts have expressed concern over the refusal of Sheikh Aweys to attend the talks in Yemen.

Alliance for the Re-liberation Meeting begins in Djibouti

http://hiiraan.com/news2/2008/July/allinace_for_the_re_liberation_meeting_begins_in_djibouti.aspx

Mogadishu, Somalia (HOL) - The second Annual General Meeting of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) has started in Djibouti this morning although members of the group still in Eritrea are not participating in the meeting.

Suleiman Olad Roble who is a member of the Communications Committee of the ARS told reporters that over 100 members are participating in the meeting.

Mr. Roble added that the participants will discuss issues that include Islam and politics, Somali civil society as well as other topics. Mr. Roble added that the formal agenda of the meeting has been postponed for a week in anticipation of the arrival of 48 other members the group who will join the meeting.

The 48 members expected to join the meeting are headed by the chairman of the ARS are currently in Yemen to participate in mediation talks between the two faction of the ARS.

It is also expected that member of the ARS in Eritrea will hold Annual General Meeting in Asmara, Eritrea. The meeting is expected to begin on July 3rd and will be chaired by Zakaria Haji Abdi.

© 2008 Hiiraan Online Inc.

Somali Opposition Factions to Hold Talks in Yemen
By Alisha Ryu, Nairobi

http://www.ayyaantuu.com/Oromiyaa/NewsBlog/tabid/36/EntryID/2626/Default.aspx

Somalia's opposition factions are expected to soon hold face-to-face talks in Yemen. The opposition split over the signing of a controversial peace agreement last month. The talks follow recent comments by the principle Islamist signatory to the agreement who said the opposition will unite against the government if Ethiopian troops do not leave Somalia within four months. VOA correspondent Alisha Ryu reports from our East Africa Bureau in Nairobi.

In a telephone interview from the Somalia opposition group's base in Asmara, Eritrea, Islamist cleric Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys tells VOA that representatives from his faction and allies of Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed have received permission from the Yemeni government to hold direct talks in Sana'a.

Aweys, who is influential among some clan and radical Islamist insurgents in Somalia, says he is not planning to attend the meeting. But he says he is ready to support whatever agreement is reached between the two sides.

The Islamist leader says the opposition Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) requested the meeting, because there are issues to discuss and Somalis often resolve differences by talking. He says everyone is expected to abide by what the majority decides.

Aweys and other hardliners in the alliance stayed away from U.N.-sponsored peace talks in Djibouti that led to the June 9 signing of an agreement between the more moderate Ahmed and the transitional federal government.

Opposition hardliners rejected the peace deal.

It stipulates that Ethiopian troops, who have backed the Somali transitional government since late 2006, would withdraw within 120 days if a U.N. stabilization force of sufficient strength is in place to replace them. Hardliners argue the agreement should have called for Ethiopians to withdraw immediately. They have threatened to remove Ahmed as chairman of the ARS for participating in the peace process.

U.S.-based Horn of Africa observer and commentator Professor Michael Weinstein says Ahmed has recently made comments that suggested he was eager to prove to Somalis that the opposition alliance is intact and that a clear timetable for an Ethiopian withdrawal has been set.

"He said that we are all on the same page in the ARS. We all want the Ethiopians out. We will liberate by negotiations, but if that does not work, we will rejoin the armed resistance and we are confident that if we liberate by negotiations, the militant faction of the ARS will join us. So it is all depending on 120 days, according to Sheik Sharif," he said.

Weinstein says Ahmed's comments may have helped soothe some of the anger, allowing an opposition reconciliation meeting to take place in Yemen. But he says Ahmed's words are deeply troubling for the international community, which must now find a way to quickly deploy a sizeable stabilization force in Somalia to keep the country from plunging further into violence.

Fighting between insurgents and Ethiopian and government troops for the past 18 months has killed more than 85-hundred people, displaced more than one million others, and has left Somalia in the midst of what the United Nations says is the biggest humanitarian crisis in the world.

Another armed Somali group which boycotted the talks in Djibouti, the Shabab, has not yet commented on the peace deal. Its leaders have long maintained that the Shabab, recently designated as a terrorist group by the United States for having ties to al-Qaida, would continue fighting until all Ethiopians left Somali soil.

Somalia: US envoy describes Ethiopia's role in Somalia "very positive"
By: Abdinasir Mohamed Guled

http://www.mareeg.com/fidsan.php?sid=6601&tirsan=3

US ambassador to Ethiopia, Donald Yamamoto, says the United States recognizes Ethiopia's contribution in various peacekeeping operations in the region and other areas of conflict in Africa.

"Ethiopia is right now, I think, the second largest troops contributing country in peacekeeping operations in Sub-Saharan Africa and probably has the most disciplined and qualified troops," Yamamoto said.

Ethiopia has been playing a very positive role in regional peace and security, Yamamoto said at a press briefing he gave on Tuesday [1 July] at the US embassy.
The US government is working closely with Ethiopia and other countries with a view to helping enhance peace and security in the Horn of Africa, he said.

According to the ambassador, the US government looks at the peace and security situation in the region with due concern.

Yamamoto said the mandate of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Somalia will expire and the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan will have to be fully implemented in 2009 and elections are to be held.

"The year 2009 is going to be a watershed, because we are going to have stability or instability or we are going to have directions towards regional security or not," he said.

With regard to Somalia, the United States appreciates Ethiopia's concerns. For Ethiopia, the issue in Somalia is particularly the security issue just as was the stability issue.

"If you don't have stability in Somalia you never have stability in your borders." He added.

"On the other hand, it is also a regional issue, because we can see the influx of foreign fighters and other extremists coming to Somalia," he said.

"And these are all concerns that affect not only Ethiopia but also Kenya, Tanzania, Djibouti and all the people who live in the region, he said. "So we need to work together with Ethiopia and the neighbouring countries to carry out objectives on how to enhance security," he said.

The shaky transitional government invited Ethiopian forces into the country to help it battle Islamic insurgents. Somalia has been torn apart by years of violence between the militias of rival clan warlords.

The rights group said it had scores of reports of killings by Ethiopian troops. In one case, "a young child's throat was slit by Ethiopian soldiers in front of the child's mother," the report says.

Amnesty said about 6,000 civilians had been reported killed and more than 600,000 had been forced to flee their homes in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, last year.

"The people of Somalia are being killed, raped, and tortured. Looting is widespread and entire neighborhoods are being destroyed," Michelle Kagari, the Amnesty deputy director for Africa, said in a statement from Nairobi that accompanied the report.

The report quotes testimony from 75 witnesses as well as scores of workers from nongovernmental organizations. People are identified only by first name to protect them from retaliation.

In one testimony, Haboon, 56, said her neighbor's 17-year-old daughter had been raped by Ethiopian troops. The girl's brothers tried to defend their sister, but the soldiers beat them and gouged their eyes out with a bayonet, Haboon was quoted as telling Amnesty.

"The testimony we received strongly suggests that war crimes and possibly crimes against humanity have been committed by all parties to the conflict in Somalia and no one is being held accountable," Kagari said.

Somalia has been mired in chaos since 1991, when warlords overthrew the longtime dictator, Mohamed Siad Barre, and then turned on each other. Last year, Islamist militants took control of most of southern Somalia, including Mogadishu. Troops from neighboring Ethiopia dewere ployed in December 2006 and ejected the Islamists from the capital.

Since then, Mogadishu has been caught up in a guerrilla war between the government and its Ethiopian allies, and the Islamist insurgents.

Amnesty urged the United Nations, the African Union and other groups to halt the violence.

Note
Picture: Somali leaders have primarily to do one thing: look at the eyes of the simple, average Somalis.