Arctic Ice at Near-Record Low, Prompting Dire Predictions

By Anastacia Mott Austin

Researchers at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (yes, that’s a real place) in Colorado released a troubling report this week.

The scientists at NSIDC say that the summer arctic ice cap was recorded at the second-lowest level since recording began, prompting predictions of the ice’s complete disappearance by the year 2030.

Satellites began measuring the dimensions of the arctic ice in 1979, and scientists say that small differences in its size from year to year are less significant than an overall reduction in its circumference over time.

That’s why the recent statistics are so troubling: they show that the ice is at 33% below where it should be, compared to averages over the last 29 years.

The NSIDC experts reported that if current weather trends continue, the arctic region could be entirely ice-free during the summer months by the year 2030.

This is obviously bad news for the beleaguered polar bear population, which uses floating ice to hunt from and give birth on. Despite what Sarah Palin says (who voted against giving Alaska’s polar bears a threatened species protection), if the floating ice disappears, so will the polar bear.

Even if you don’t care about polar bears, say researchers, you should care about shrinking arctic ice. The ice coverage offers a cooling element, as it reflects the sun’s heat away from the earth with its blockage of the ocean and lighter color. As more ice disappears and more ocean is uncovered, the solar heat will be absorbed by the darker, warmer ocean waters, exacerbating the warming trend. In other words, the more ice that melts, the faster the earth will heat up, making the ice coverage even scarcer and raising the ocean’s temperatures to unlivable conditions for many marine species.

"The continued drastic melting of the Arctic sea ice is a disaster for the polar bear and a harbinger of what's to come for the rest of the world if we don't reduce greenhouse gas emissions," said Kassie Siegel, the Center for Biological Diversity’s climate program director.

Dr. Walter Meier, a scientist at NSIDC, says he can’t envision a scenario where the ice will rebuild to its former glory. Meier told press representatives that this year’s overall cooler temperatures should have signaled much more ice coverage for this time of year. "That's a real indication that this isn't any kind of temporary climate cycle," said Meier to reporters. "It's more an indication that we're heading toward the point where we're going to have that sea ice completely melt in the coming decades or perhaps sooner."

Added Meier, "It’s hard to see the summer ice coming back in any substantial way."