David Cameron Retreats on European Referendum

David Cameron has ruled out any possibility of a referendum on the Lisbon treaty if the measure is ratified by all 27 members of the EU before next year's general election in Britain.

Amid signs the measure will enter EU law by the end of the year – as the Czech Republic and Poland indicated over the weekend they will fall into line – Tory sources admitted that Cameron will not try to unpick the treaty's main reforms.

In a move to assuage Eurosceptic anger inside and outside his party, Cameron will instead launch a campaign to repatriate powers which the Tories believe should be held at a national level. This would in effect mean restoring Britain's opt-out from the social chapter.

Cameron will also issue a warning to the EU that a Tory government will adopt a hardline stance if its demands are not accepted. This could involve holding a referendum in Britain on Cameron's more modest proposals or holding up the next round of EU treaties, expected within the next two years, to admit Croatia and Iceland into the union.

But today there were signs that the move could prove controversial within the party. Earlier in the day, Boris Johnson took a very different line, insisting a referendum was vital because of the possibility that Tony Blair could becoming the first president of the European council. Johnson and Cameron claimed there was no rift between them.

Cameron had pledged to hold a UK referendum as long as the treaty remained unratified by every member state. He had been unclear as to what action he would take should the treaty pass into law.

But as Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy stepped up the pressure on Warsaw and Prague to ratify the treaty in the wake of Friday's "yes" vote in Ireland, Tory sources indicated that Cameron will change tack if the measure enters EU law. Abandoning the referendum on Lisbon would force the Tories to accept the new post of president of the European council, which may go to Tony Blair.

Renegotiating the opt-out on the social chapter would need the agreement of all member states, because the measures have been sprinkled among various EU treaties which can only be amended with the agreement of all 27 member states.

A Cameron government would demand greater powers over justice and home affairs. Under the Lisbon treaty these are voted under a system known as qualified majority voting, which means that no member state has a veto. France and Germany are likely to resist any changes here because Britain has an "opt in" – the right to refuse to sign up to laws in this area. Senior Tories say Cameron has accepted that it would be virtually impossible to alter the main institutional EU changes in the Lisbon treaty – the new president, a new "high representative" for foreign affairs, and greater powers for the European parliament – once it enters EU law. He will instead focus on measures that would mainly relate just to Britain.

One well-placed Tory said: "There is virtually no hope of changing the main institutional architecture of the EU once Lisbon enters into force. If the treaty enters EU law you will find a Conservative government will want to focus on repatriating powers that affect the UK. This is not going soft. If other EU leaders say they will not accommodate us, then we have the threat of a referendum on our reforms."

Cameron gave a hint of his plans when he appeared on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show from Manchester where the Conservative conference will opentomorrow. The Tory leader refused to spell out what he would do if the Lisbon treaty enters EU law, on the grounds that it would be wrong to interfere while Poland and the Czech Republic are still considering the measure.

But when asked what powers he would like to repatriate, he said: "We've said that we think that the social and employment legislation, we think that's an area that ought to be determined nationally rather than at the European level. There are many things in the Lisbon treaty – giving more power over home affairs and justice – that we don't think is right."

William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, told Radio 4's The World This Weekend: "If it is [ratified] then we will spell out exactly how we intend to proceed, we will seek a mandate for that in our election manifesto. But we are entitled to say that we still want to hold, before ratification, the referendum that we have always wanted and that the people were promised at the last election."

Dan Hannan, the Eurosceptic Tory MEP who was instrumental in persuading Cameron to abandon the main center-right grouping in the European parliament, accepted last night that a referendum on Lisbon is unlikely to take place. "The reason why we're pushing for a referendum on Lisbon was because Tony Blair promised one. If we are drawing up our own referendum it would have been issues stretching back to the treaty of Rome. Plainly the other member states want to go further than we do. We are in the business not of preventing others from embarking on deeper integration, but withdrawing from those parts we do not want to be part of."

The change in Tory tactics came amid strong signals that Poland and the Czech Republic will ratify the Lisbon treaty. Warsaw has told Sweden, which holds the rotating EU presidency, that it will ratify the measure within weeks.

Vaclav Klaus, the Eurosceptic Czech president who had indicated he would delay ratifying the treaty until after the British general election, indicated he might change his mind. "There will never be another referendum in Europe," he said after the Irish vote. Asked by the BBC whether he had a message for Britain, he said: "I am afraid the people of Britain should have been doing something much earlier and not just now, too late, saying something and waiting for my decision."