NHS Readies for Return of Swine Flu in Autumn

The NHS is preparing to double its intensive care capacity to cope with the predicted surge in swine flu cases in the autumn, the chief medical officer said today.

Routine operations will be canceled so theatre staff and equipment can be redeployed on flu patients, and new ventilators will be bought, Liam Donaldson said.

He also launched a consultation on allowing one doctor rather than two to section a mentally ill person and send them to hospital, in the event that the second wave of swine flu drastically reduces numbers of NHS staff able to work.

The announcements came as the government's chief scientist, Professor John Beddington, said it was "virtually impossible" that Britain would be spared an autumn outbreak coinciding with the traditional flu season. It could be with us in less than a month, he said.

"It's hard to imagine there won't be a second wave, in fact it's virtually impossible, but whether it comes early in October at a high level, or in more moderate waves late in the year is not possible to predict," said Beddington at the British Science Association festival in Guildford.

At the Department of Health in London, Ian Dalton, national director of NHS flu resilience, said it had been decided to carry on with contingency plans originally devised to cope with bird flu, even though the government's expert advisory committee now believes that only 1% of patients, instead of 2%, will be hospitalized. "But that's still the basis on which we are planning – which we think is the prudent place to be," said Dalton.

Donaldson denied that doubling critical care beds was a political decision. Last week the Tories claimed the NHS might not have enough intensive care beds to cope with a second wave.

"I don't think it is political," said Donaldson. "I think we're tantalizingly close to being able to win the battle against this pandemic virus. In the past we have had to take whatever it throws at us and chalk up the extra deaths.

"Albeit it is mild, it can still kill … We are closer and closer to having a vaccine available. Every patient counts."

Neither Donaldson nor Dalton were able to put figures on the amount of money that scaling up critical care will cost.

The plans are to double intensive care beds from the current 1,982 for adults in England and 363 for children. Scotland, Wales and northern Ireland will make similar arrangements.

Professor Beddington also defended the decision to make Tamiflu available to all through GPs. Some scientists are concerned that move would increase the chances of the virus becoming resistant before a vaccine was ready. So far, only a dozen or so cases of drug-resistant swine flu have been confirmed worldwide.