Swine Flu Could Kill 65,000 in Uk, Warns Chief Medical Officer
Department of Health launches phone and web diagnosis service as pandemic death toll rises to 29
As many as 65,000 people could die from swine flu in the UK in a worst case scenario set out by the chief medical officer as the government launched a national service for patients to obtain antiviral drugs over the internet and telephone.
With 29 deaths now linked to the pandemic and a further 53 patients in intensive care, the cabinet's emergency planning committee, Cobra, is now meeting three times a week to prepare for the impact of the rapidly spreading pandemic.
On a day of dramatic revelations, the Department of Health announced:
• The launch of the National Pandemic Flu Service helpline.
• Infections running at 55,000 new cases last week.
• More than 650 people are being treated in hospital.
• Half of the country's children could eventually fall ill.
• 132 million doses of a vaccine – still in development – have been ordered, sufficient for every UK citizen to have two injections.
The internet service and helpline will initially involve 2,000 people in call centres giving out advice and prescribing antiviral drugs such a Tamiflu and Relenza. The number has not yet been given out, but the helpline should open by the end of next week. It is intended to relieve intense pressure on GPs and hospitals.
The online service will let people follow a series of diagrams to input their symptoms, which will then allow them to prescribe drugs for themselves. Every caller will be given a unique reference number after giving their name and address, and will be reminded that antivirals have side-effects. Sir Liam Donaldson, the chief medical officer, said the government would have to trust in the "honesty" of the public not to abuse the system.
The devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will not be part of the National Pandemic Flu Service, but will still rely on frontline services to treat patients.
The new total for swine flu-related deaths includes 26 in England and three in Scotland. It is not known how many had underlying health problems. The case of Chloe Buckley, the six-year-old London schoolgirl who died earlier this week, is still being investigated.
Health ministers from across the UK are attending weekly Cobra meetings to assess the impact of the disease. Senior civil servants from across Whitehall are also conferring three times a week. The health secretary, Andy Burnham, said: "I want the public to be reassured we have been preparing for the possibility of a pandemic for a number of years and all that pre-planning is now paying dividends."
Donaldson said there was no evidence to suggest the virus was mutating into a more virulent form.
The new service would, he said, "take the pressure off the frontline primary care and A&E departments to allow them to concentrate on the most ill patients".
Current planning assumptions involve a range of anticipated casualty rates. It is expected that as many as 60% of the population will eventually become infected, but only around 30% will fall ill and experience significant symptoms.
The latest official assumption is that 30% of the population may fall ill. That would produce 65,000 deaths if the mortality rate was as high as 0.35%, and 19,000 deaths if it was a rate of 0.1%.
The most optimistic scenario set out is based on only 5% of the population falling ill and 3,100 dying.
The mortality range should be seen in the context of recent outbreaks of seasonal winter flu, such as that in 1999-2000, which caused more than 21,000 deaths.
Donaldson said: "We can't give an estimate of deaths from this virus yet. We don't know enough about it." Health officials remained uncertain about what could happen next: infections may accelerate until they reach a peak in September; or the closure of schools for the summer may slow the spread of the disease.
Health officials are particularly concerned that the hospitalization rate is highest in the under-five age group, with young children who catch the infection three times more likely to need treatment on the wards.
Donaldson said infection rates were "absolutely intense" in "hot spots", and spreading.
The NHS has drawn up contingency plans to cancel routine operations if the situation deteriorates further.
One firm monitoring the outbreak said that up to a third of the workforce may have fallen sick by September. Oxford Economics, a forecasting organization, warns today that the pandemic could knock 5% off the UK's GDP.
With 29 deaths now linked to the pandemic and a further 53 patients in intensive care, the cabinet's emergency planning committee, Cobra, is now meeting three times a week to prepare for the impact of the rapidly spreading pandemic.
On a day of dramatic revelations, the Department of Health announced:
• The launch of the National Pandemic Flu Service helpline.
• Infections running at 55,000 new cases last week.
• More than 650 people are being treated in hospital.
• Half of the country's children could eventually fall ill.
• 132 million doses of a vaccine – still in development – have been ordered, sufficient for every UK citizen to have two injections.
The internet service and helpline will initially involve 2,000 people in call centres giving out advice and prescribing antiviral drugs such a Tamiflu and Relenza. The number has not yet been given out, but the helpline should open by the end of next week. It is intended to relieve intense pressure on GPs and hospitals.
The online service will let people follow a series of diagrams to input their symptoms, which will then allow them to prescribe drugs for themselves. Every caller will be given a unique reference number after giving their name and address, and will be reminded that antivirals have side-effects. Sir Liam Donaldson, the chief medical officer, said the government would have to trust in the "honesty" of the public not to abuse the system.
The devolved administrations in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will not be part of the National Pandemic Flu Service, but will still rely on frontline services to treat patients.
The new total for swine flu-related deaths includes 26 in England and three in Scotland. It is not known how many had underlying health problems. The case of Chloe Buckley, the six-year-old London schoolgirl who died earlier this week, is still being investigated.
Health ministers from across the UK are attending weekly Cobra meetings to assess the impact of the disease. Senior civil servants from across Whitehall are also conferring three times a week. The health secretary, Andy Burnham, said: "I want the public to be reassured we have been preparing for the possibility of a pandemic for a number of years and all that pre-planning is now paying dividends."
Donaldson said there was no evidence to suggest the virus was mutating into a more virulent form.
The new service would, he said, "take the pressure off the frontline primary care and A&E departments to allow them to concentrate on the most ill patients".
Current planning assumptions involve a range of anticipated casualty rates. It is expected that as many as 60% of the population will eventually become infected, but only around 30% will fall ill and experience significant symptoms.
The latest official assumption is that 30% of the population may fall ill. That would produce 65,000 deaths if the mortality rate was as high as 0.35%, and 19,000 deaths if it was a rate of 0.1%.
The most optimistic scenario set out is based on only 5% of the population falling ill and 3,100 dying.
The mortality range should be seen in the context of recent outbreaks of seasonal winter flu, such as that in 1999-2000, which caused more than 21,000 deaths.
Donaldson said: "We can't give an estimate of deaths from this virus yet. We don't know enough about it." Health officials remained uncertain about what could happen next: infections may accelerate until they reach a peak in September; or the closure of schools for the summer may slow the spread of the disease.
Health officials are particularly concerned that the hospitalization rate is highest in the under-five age group, with young children who catch the infection three times more likely to need treatment on the wards.
Donaldson said infection rates were "absolutely intense" in "hot spots", and spreading.
The NHS has drawn up contingency plans to cancel routine operations if the situation deteriorates further.
One firm monitoring the outbreak said that up to a third of the workforce may have fallen sick by September. Oxford Economics, a forecasting organization, warns today that the pandemic could knock 5% off the UK's GDP.
Use the feedback form below to submit your comments.
Use the form below to email this article to your friends.
- Swine Flu Now Officially a Pandemic, First in 41 Years
- WHO: Swine Flu Could Infect 2 Billion Worldwide
- Mexico Slowly Emerging from Flu Scare to Celebrate Cinco de Mayo
- Swine Flu Stirring Up New Immigration Control Debates
- VP Joe Biden Blunders Through Swine Flu Talking Points
- Swine Flu Will Be Biggest Pandemic Ever, Warns World Health Chief
- Swine Flu Cases Soared Sixfold Last Week, Nhs Figures Reveal
- Swine Flu Could Paralyse Country, Whitehall is Told
- Swine Flu Victim Had No Other Health Issues
- Swine Flu Death Toll Rises
- Swine Flu's at My Gate. But I'm Not Afraid
- CBI Issues Swine Flu Alert
- Swine Flu: 100,000 Uk Cases a Day By August
- UK Swine Flu Can No Longer Be Contained
- Swine Flu: Government Set to Abandon Daily Recording of New Cases
- African Swine Fever
- Facts about Swine Flu
- Swine Flu: Causes, Symptoms and Treatment
- Great Swine Flu Epidemic
- This Isn’t Your Grandmother’s Flu
- Difference Between Swine Flu and Regular Flu
- Swine Flu: US Death Toll Touches 4000
- World's First Cat Catches Swine Flu
- Swine Flu - Child Killer!
- Health Secretary Urges Americans to get Swine Flu Vaccine
- Is There a Cure for Swine Flu
- Swine Flu and Ayurveda
- Swine Flu Phobia
- Swine Flu and Pregnancy
- Swine Flu Natural Remedies - Herbal Remedies for Swine Flu
- Swine Flu - H1N1 Virus