Swine Flu Death Toll Rises

The number of deaths from swine flu in the UK has risen to 14, the government's chief medical officer has disclosed today, as the infection reached epidemic levels in the worst-hit parts of the country.

For the first time, the Health Protection Agency (HPA) revealed a snapshot of the numbers being hospitalized with serious illness. Yesterday 335 people were being treated in hospital, 43 of whom were in critical care. Younger people are worse affected than their elders – 60 of those in hospital were under five years old, 47 were five-15, 189 were aged between 16 and 64 and only 39 were over 65. Normal seasonal flu hits the oldest hardest.

Exact figures for the numbers of people with a diagnosis of swine flu are no longer being given, because of the large numbers now being infected. Sir Liam Donaldson, the CMO, said around 27,000 people had consulted a GP with symptoms in the last week, but the HPA says its sampling shows that only around 28% – around 8,000 – of those have flu-like illness, which may or may not be swine flu.

Worst hit are London and the West Midlands, which are showing epidemic levels of infection, defined as 200 cases per 100,000 population. Donaldson said he was not surprised at the regional differences. "Even with seasonal flu, you start to see different parts of the country affected in sequence," he said. "I'm convinced when we do start to see a big surge it will sweep around the country."

The government's scientific advisory group has suggested we could reach 100,000 new cases a day by the end of August. The CMO said he still thought there would be a rise in cases when the normal autumn and winter flu season kicks in. "It's partly the climatic conditions and partly schools going back," he said. "In the 1968-70 pandemic, the UK did not get hit that badly in the first winter – it came the winter after."

The UK is harder hit than any other country in the world apart from the US and Mexico at the moment. As of today , there were 33,902 cases and 170 deaths in the US and 10,262 cases and 119 deaths in Mexico,with 9,718 laboratory-confirmed cases in the UK (the real figure is thought to be much higher). Other countries with lower case numbers are experiencing more deaths, however, such as Argentina with 2,485 cases and 60 deaths and Canada with 7,983 cases and 25 deaths.

Those who have died have had underlying health problems, but the CMO said that many people are vulnerable. In the UK, around a million people are asthmatics or have diabetes, which puts them at risk. People with those and other chronic diseases or impaired immune systems – for instance because of cancer treatment – will be a priority for immunization once the vaccine arrives.