The Spin

In this week's Spin:
The final countdown;
A penny for their thoughts.

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TWENTY-FOUR HOURS AND COUNTING ...

For those of you who like omens - and cricket fans tend to set their watch by them - there was a telling vignette at Cardiff yesterday. While Australia's practice session was driven inside by the rain, England arrived just as the sun was coming out. This meant they not only got to do their drills on the green, green grass of the Swalec, but were allowed a sneak preview of a pitch that has attracted more suspicion than the Spin's Wallabies sunhat.

If the two sides' contrasting fortunes felt like the kind of incident that gets trotted out in retrospect ("England's famous victory was all down to the rain two days before the game"), then the news that Brett Lee is out of the first two Tests had 'Glenn McGrath, Edgbaston 2005' graffitied all over it. Back then, Australia had no time to lick their wounds; now they will have had two whole days to mull over just how the hell they're going to get the ball to reverse. If the English were able to gloat-in-advance as well as the Australians, this would be a moment to say "ya", "boo" and "sucks".

But it isn't. Instead, it is a moment for England to take a deep breath - they must have been holding it while Lee was producing reverse-swing from the Gods at Worcester last week - and tell themselves: it's now or no time soon. Suddenly, it's England who have the in-form top three, it's England who have the most adept reverse-swingers, and it's England who have a spin-bowling attack unembarrassed to stand up and say its name.

To operate for a moment under the heady prospect that England may just have become narrow favorites in the last 24 hours is to face up to the nagging thought that this, paradoxically, is where the problems begin. Because England have never done favorites - marginal or otherwise - very well: defeat against the Netherlands in the World Twenty20 followed by an unexpected victory over Pakistan confirmed that old axiom.

Suddenly the temptation is to lapse into 2005 mode, that strange era when the sun shone, the British public briefly cottoned on to the fact that cricket has a bit more to it than football, and Andrew Flintoff actually justified his place in the team (make no mistake: one more "alarm-clock issue" and Flintoff's out). But the reality is England have more to beware of than they would care to admit.

Other than Lee's now irrelevant magic at New Road, the two bonuses for Australia were the return to form of Michael Hussey and Marcus North. Both men had looked for a while like archetypes of the post-Warne/McGrath Australian era: committed but scratchy, devoted to the baggy green without quite deserving it. Innings of 150 (Hussey) and 191 not out (North) have instilled a dangerous confidence in the Australian middle order which, for the time being at least, will over-ride the double failures in Worcester of Phil Hughes and Ricky Ponting.

Who knows, Lee's absence may even galvanize the other bowlers. Peter Siddle remains under-rated, Stuart Clark (90 Test wickets at a tick under 23 each) must surely improve on his early-tour showings, and Mitchell Johnson cannot conceivably be as anodyne as he was in Worcester. (Inswinger to the right-hander? What inswinger to the right-hander!) Hell, even Nathan Hauritz may find some succour in the Cardiff pitch, unless Australia go with the ever-so-steady Ben Hilfenhaus. That, at least, is the generous interpretation.

The other reading is that Australia are going to have to call on every last drop of blood, sweat and the rest. Michael Clarke yesterday claimed with the straightest of faces that a side which conceded 373 for seven in the second innings against Sussex and allowed the Lions to reach 172 without loss before Lee did his impression of Waqar Younis is "at the top of our game". When he went on to say "we're as good as any team I have been part of for Australia", you knew the tourists' spin department was alive and kicking after all.

A couple of hours later, the England players were swarming all over the pitch which holds their fate over the next five days. Nerves abounded. And that is exactly as it should be. Last week this column mocked the notion that this series was destined to be tight. Now it's not so sure ...

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QUOTE OF THE WEEK

"This is an urban myth. I never actually got on it" - Andrew Flintoff tells Laura Barton in G2 not to believe everything she reads about the St Lucia pedalo.

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TWEET THE SPIN!

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WIN A COPY OF MARCUS BERKMANN'S NEW BOOK

He did it with Rain Men. He did it again with Zimmer Men. Now Marcus Berkmann is back with Ashes to Ashes: 35 Years of Humiliation (And About 30 Minutes of Ecstasy Watching England v Australia), published by Little, Brown. The Spin distracted him for long enough to grab three copies while he wasn't looking, so if you'd like to win one of them, just answer the following question and email lawrence.booth@guardian.co.uk by 12 noon on Monday 13 July:

· Which Australian fast bowler explained to umpire Dickie Bird that he sledged Graeme Hick because "he offended me in a former life"?

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EXTRAS

The Spin doesn't know about you, but personally it can't wait for the actual cricket to start. This Ashes series is doing funny things to people's heads - and it hasn't even got going yet. Yesterday your intrepid column's taxi driver complained that Cardiff wasn't doing enough to publicize its first-ever Test just as the car stopped at lights beneath a giant poster of Andrew Flintoff. Then there was the news that Phil Tufnell had just won his Betfair Pedalo Challenge "in the choppy waters of Cardiff Bay" against Jason Gillespie. Fear not, Aussies: Dizzy will get his crack at revenge in next week's Lawn Mower Grand Prix.

Then there's the incessant punditry, a phenomenon the Spin has long taken issue with. This column last night managed to get from its bed to the bathroom without being accosted by a former pro with a product to plug and an opinion to share, but it was a close-run thing. Shane Warne, the man who told us all how good Bryce McGain was, insists (always insists) Australia must play Nathan Hauritz. Robert Croft, another figure with no bias whatsoever towards slow bowlers, has said pretty much the same thing. Doubtless John Emburey will have his say before the Test is over.

Honestly, you can't move for opinions. "Ponting gives Hughes bouncer advice", "Collingwood spurred by Adelaide debacle", "Upbeat Clarke happy with preparations", "Pietersen relishes the contest" - all recent headlines on Cricinfo. Rumours, meanwhile, that each paper has assigned a reporter to listen exclusively to Warne's commentary on Sky and turn his collected insults into a 600-word page lead are yet to be denied. This could be the Ashes in which more views are expressed per over than any in history. And, since you ask, the Spin is going for 1-1.

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WE HAVE THREE WINNERS!

Last week we asked you who captained Australia the only time they lost an Ashes series 5-1. The answer, of course, was Graham Yallop in 1978-79 - congratulations go to Robert Spice, Tyrone Marshall and Lucas Mordue, who each win a copy of International Cricket Captain's new Ashes edition. For more details visit www.childishthings.co.uk.

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THE WEEK IN CRICKET

· Andrew Strauss admits Andrew Flintoff "stuffed up" after missing the team bus during a trip to a first world war memorial in Ypres. Hugh Morris, the England team's managing director, ascribed the oversight to "alarm-clock issues" - an excuse the Spin has already noted down for future use.

· Mike Hussey (150) and Marcus North (191 not out) return to form during Australia's draw with England Lions at Worcester. Brett Lee takes six for 76, but can't prevent Lions opener Stephen Moore hitting 120 - and is later diagnosed with a slight abdominal tear, thus ruling him out of the first two Ashes Tests.

· England warm up with a three-day draw against Warwickshire at Edgbaston as Alastair Cook and Ravi Bopara make hundreds and James Anderson takes five for 34. Monty Panesar may or may not have returned to form with figures of three for 10: his three wickets were Nos 8, 9 and 11.

· Peter Trego smashes a staggering 103 not out in just 54 balls, including nine sixes, as Somerset chase down a target of 476 to beat Yorkshire by four wickets in the county championship at Taunton. Marcus Trescothick contributes 146 and 96, and there are second-innings runs too for fellow opener Arul Suppiah (131).

· Durham stay top thanks to a five-wicket win over struggling Worcestershire at Chester-le-Street, where Liam Plunkett takes 11 for 119 and opener Michael Di Venuto seals victory with a second-innings 100 not out. Nottinghamshire and Lancashire play out a tame draw at Trent Bridge.

· In the second division, Kent No11 Simon Cook follows up five for 22 by hitting 40 not out in a crucial last-wicket stand of 87 with Ryan McLaren to help set up a 76-run win over Gloucestershire at Beckenham. Owais Shah, Mark Ramprakash and Nick Compton all hit hundreds in the draw between Middlesex and Surrey at Lord's, while Derbyshire also draw at home to Leicestershire.

· India take a 2-1 lead in their one-day series in the Caribbean thanks to a Duckworth/Lewis-assisted six-wicket win over West Indies in St Lucia, and then clinch the series when rain washes out the final match.

· England's women secure their first one-day series win over Australia since 1976 after a nervy two-wicket win in the third ODI at Stratford. Laura Marsh is dropped off the last ball of a game reduced to 29 overs a side by the rain - and manages to score the two runs required for victory. England then prevail in another last-ball finish at Wormsley, again by two wickets, to move into a 4-0 series lead.

· Graham Onions squeezes out Steve Harmison in England's 13-man squad for tomorrow's first Test at Cardiff - despite Harmison twice bouncing out Australia opener Phil Hughes for single-figure scores in Worcester. Ian Bell and Panesar also make the squad.

· Sussex will play Hampshire in the final of the Friends Provident Trophy. Sussex overcame Gloucestershire by 34 runs at Hove thanks to 146 from Ed Joyce, while Hampshire were 64-run victors over Lancashire at Old Trafford.

· Alcwyn Jenkins, a 72-year-old umpire from south Wales, dies after being hit on the head by the ball while officiating in a league match in Swansea. He was airlifted to hospital after being hit by a fielder's throw but died shortly afterwards.

· Career-best figures of four for 15 from Sri Lanka's slow left-armer Rangana Herath condemn Pakistan to a 50-run defeat in the first Test at Galle. Set 168 to win, Pakistan slip from 36 without loss to 117.

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CONTACT THE SPIN

Email lawrence.booth@guardian.co.uk and feel free to cc. sports.editor@guardianunlimited.co.uk while you're at it.

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