Swine Flu Outbreak 'stabilising', But Mp Warns of Second Wave

A school in north London has been closed after one of its year 9 pupils was confirmed as being infected with the swine flu virus. The case was one of three new infections announced by public health officials today, taking the UK total to 18.

The new cases came to light as public health officials around the world were suggesting that the H1N1 flu outbreak was stabilising. The health secretary, Alan Johnson, said health agencies in the UK had the virus largely under control and the country should instead be preparing itself for the inevitable second wave of infections in the autumn.

South Hampstead high school will be closed until Thursday on advice from the Health Protection Agency (HPA). The infected pupil, a 14-year-old from Barnet, had come into contact with someone recently returned from Mexico.

"A pupil in year 9 has just been confirmed as having influenza A type H1N1 this weekend; the pupil is at home and well," wrote the headteacher, Jenny Stephen, in a letter to parents published on the school's website. "I want to reassure you that the school has taken all the necessary steps today and all the relevant agencies have been involved."

She added: "The [HPA] has advised that the school should close with immediate effect and reopen on Thursday 7 May in the first instance. This is to reduce any potential spread of the infection."

At the school, the upper 6th leavers' ball was cancelled and all further sports events, concerts and field trips planned for later this week have also been called off. Special arrangements were being made to accommodate pupils taking GCSE and A-level exams but Stephen wrote that "the important message is that any students who have any symptoms of a flu-like illness must not attend school".

The second case confirmed was an 11-year-old from Wandsworth in south London who had recently returned from the US. The third case confirmed was of a man from Ayrshire, who had flown back from the US to Birmingham last Monday.

Johnson said the spread of the H1N1 virus had largely been contained in the UK, though this might only stem the outbreak until the autumn.

"Our evidence from all previous pandemics is that you get two phases," he said. "You get a first wave that is often very mild and then you get a much more serious wave that comes along in the autumn and the winter. So we have to not just deal with this outbreak now, but prepare, ­perhaps, for a second phase further down the line."

Although the World Health Organisation (WHO) raised its global alert level to phase 5 last week, which means it thinks a pandemic is imminent, Johnson said that the response by public health authorities in the UK had proved effective in limiting the spread of the flu virus here.

At present, 716 people are undergoing tests for the virus across the UK with 14 infections confirmed in England and four in Scotland. Across the world, the WHO has now confirmed 787 cases of swine flu across 17 countries, with Mexico continuing to have by far the largest number, at 506. But the number of confirmed deaths remains low at 20 — 19 in Mexico and one, a 21-month-old boy, in Texas.

In Mexico the flu epidemic has tapped the country's deep religious sentiment but to avoid spreading infection the Catholic church has suspended masses. "It pains us a lot not to have mass on Sunday but we have taken this decision in solidarity with the health authorities. They asked us to avoid having multitudes of people," said Diego Monroy Ponce, rector of Mexico City's Basilica of Guadaloupe.