Captain Strauss Must Throw Caution to the Wind

In the days leading up to today's final and deciding Test, the Queen's Park pitch has changed its character and appearance as if a fugitive from justice. Damp and grassy in the morning, it would bake under the Trinidad sun, and by afternoon had developed a dry crust. The groundsman has been sprinkling it to prevent undue cracking, but with the uneven nature of the grass covering, which will not help even bounce, and the possibility that it might crumble, this could be the match in which the bowlers, downtrodden serfs for the past two Tests, finally have a say.

Opinions were everywhere yesterday but no one really knows how the surface, relaid prior to the 2007 World Cup, and scarcely used since, will play. It is not an exact science based, as in weather forecasting, on probability. But a general view would be that it will help seamers, although not unduly in terms of pace, could bring lbws into play with the prospect of low bounce, and might well turn. Given fair weather, there will be a result.

If West Indies might wish to protect that which they accumulated in the first Test at Sabina Park in Jamaica, and on to which they have clung since, then England have to go all out to win. Caution has to be thrown to the wind.

For Andrew Strauss and Andy Flower, in their deliberations, this is going to be a most difficult balancing act, for somehow they have to find the key to taking 20 wickets, something they have been unable to do in any Test this winter, while at the same time ensuring that they have sufficient runs in what promises to be a low-scoring game. If wickets were at a premium over runs in Antigua and Barbados, the reverse could apply here.

Strauss was giving little away yesterday but the indications are that, as a man who preaches personal responsibility, he wants the bowling and will tell the batsmen to get on with it. And if it means a tail like a rat, then so be it. Regarding the batting, though, the decision will have to be made as to whom, from the order that made 600 in Barbados, gets the chop, so that Matt Prior, newly returned from paternal duties, can resume at No6.

This is no easy matter for, with the exception of Owais Shah, none of the top order has failed to get runs at some stage, with hundreds from Strauss, Alastair Cook, Paul Collingwood and Ravi Bopara, and a top score of 97 but consistency from Kevin Pietersen.

The reality is that the choice will come down to Shah or Bopara, the former promised and expecting a decent run at No3 once Ian Bell had been jettisoned but the latter, with a certain amount of good fortune yet with admirable bravado nonetheless, taking his chance in Barbados, with hundreds both in the warm-up match and Test having flown halfway round the world from the Lions tour.

The choice is a tough one but it may well be Bopara who retains his place, and probably bats at No3 (as he does for Essex) although there is an argument, probably resisted, for Pietersen moving into the slot to leave him down the order. If this would be harsh on Shah, who has waited a long time for the chance, then it would show a certain rather ruthless sense of purpose.

Tim Ambrose makes way for Prior, having had a decent enough game in Bridgetown with tidy keeping and perky runs. If the feeling still persists that six is a place too high for him then Prior's Test average in excess of 40 is a solid one. The tail, though, would be huge no matter the permutation of bowling produced by the selectors. Two seamers, Stuart Broad and James Anderson, are given, with the immediate necessity of the former to bat at No7, ludicrously high for him at this stage of his career.

If three seamers are chosen – and this is a game in which Strauss may well want a real balance to his attack bearing in mind that his chief wicket-taker has been Graeme Swann – then with Ryan Sidebottom unfit for purpose, the final place will go either to Steve Harmison or the uncapped Kent paceman Amjad Khan.

Once more, the indications are that there will be no easy way back for Harmison, whose fitness is not regarded as being up to scratch. Amjad has pace and is skiddy rather than bouncy, although he tested the middle of the pitch considerably in the two-day game in Barbados. Harmison and Simon Jones took five-wicket hauls here in 2004, but it is Jones whom Amjad would most resemble in stature and method.

Swann has been a revelation, showing skill and character, especially against the numerous West Indies left-handers, and has earned his place over Monty Panesar. The idea that Adil Rashid is ready for Tests is a little too fanciful, and the international schedule for the next two years means that he can be protected further and allowed to develop into the major player that one day he can be. Panesar can return with the impetus of knowing there is a new spin king to unhorse.