Israeli Ceasefire Offers Precious Respite, But Little Has Changed

Three weeks after the launch of Israel's offensive against the Gaza Strip, its unilateral ceasefire marks a new stage in the conflict rather than the end of a shocking story that has reverberated across the Middle East and the world.

Ehud Olmert's declaration that Israel had attained its military goals was met almost at once with the launch of more rockets from across the border – a defiant signal that Hamas can still fight. With five Israeli divisions deployed in Gaza, ground attacks could resume at any moment.

Hamas has not run up the white flag. Israel's finger is still on the trigger. Gaza and its 1.5 million people remain under blockade. There is no agreement between these bitter enemies. Nothing fundamental has changed, except that some 1,200 Palestinians and 13 Israelis have died.

Olmert's claim that Hamas has been "badly beaten" is hard to evaluate, although the heavy bombing of tunnels under the Egyptian border must have squeezed its supply routes. Estimates late last week were that its core military strength had been "degraded" by only 10-15%.

Israel believes Operation Cast Lead has re-established its fearsome deterrent capability, which was eroded by Hizbullah's successes in the 2006 Lebanon war. Its losses – three civilians and 10 soldiers, four of those killed by friendly fire – kept the Israeli Jewish public firmly behind the offensive, setting the stage for elections on February 10.

But the Palestinian death toll of 1,200 or more – the majority civilians, including hundreds of children – was a terrible price. The sheer scale of the killing, allegations of war crimes by the UN, mass demonstrations and calls for boycotts of Israel underline global as well as Arab outrage at the human cost of this most asymmetric of wars.

Even those with no love for Hamas, who criticise it for a recklessness that played straight into Israel's hands, warn that the slaughter will fuel hatred and radicalisation and will motivate a new generation of "martyrs" and suicide bombers.

Iran and Syria, its principal backers, will not end their support. Israel's offensive was seen as a war against the whole Palestinian people, not just the Islamist movement that rules Gaza. Olmert's apology will be neither believed nor accepted.

In the short term, Hamas may be able to carry on firing a few rockets and risk attacks on the ground. It will certainly continue to claim victory simply by having resisted the might of the Israeli army. Its "military" gains, though, are close to zero.

Without unprecedented international pressure on Israel, the Hamas goal of permanently lifting the blockade is unlikely to be achieved. Israel says it will increase the flow of food and medicine into Gaza if the ceasefire holds but rules out ending the siege until its captured soldier Gilad Shalit is freed.

Israel's unilateral decision to stop attacking, backed by US guarantees to shut down Hamas weapons supplies, was clearly intended to ensure that the Palestinian group did not gain legitimacy as a partner to any deal. It was always likely too that the operation would end before the Obama inauguration.

Still, since a return to the status quo is unthinkable, now is the time for intensive and sustained international mediation. Talks convened today by Hosni Mubarak, the Egyptian president, will focus on tightening border security between Egypt and Gaza to stop arms smuggling. Nicolas Sarkozy, Gordon Brown and other EU leaders are all likely to pledge assistance.

It is urgent that the fragile ceasefire does hold so that desperately needed medical and humanitarian relief efforts can get under way in earnest. In the medium term there will have to be a huge reconstruction effort in Gaza. But donors have been here before – rebuilding, and then watching it all collapse in flames and dust when fighting starts again.

The immediate political issue is whether governments will now be prepared to deal with Hamas, bypassing and therefore weakening the internationally recognised, western-backed Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, which has been negotiating with Israel. That touches in turn on the thorny question of internal Palestinian reconciliation.

Beyond all that, Operation Cast Lead may be effectively over, but the question of how to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains unanswered, just as it was before.