Playing Favourites With Murray Looks a Tough Racket at the Australian Open

"He's that most dangerous of sporting ­phenomena – a British winner." Thus did the ­Ladbrokes spokesman Nick Weinberg voice the ­layers' fears over Andy Murray, who starts the Australian Open next week as the first British pre-tournament favorite in the open era. The Harrow-based firm predicts a dark day for the bookmakers should Murray justify that status.

The morning after the Scot lost to Roger Federer in the final of the US Open, he was chalked up as an 8-1 chance to win the next slam. Four months and three ATP Tour titles later, Murray finds himself at the top of the market for the tournament at a freely available 5-2.

The price not only reflects Murray's ­current form but perhaps also the liabilities many layers have about the 21-year-old claiming one of the four big titles. But is Murray a value bet for the Australian Open at current odds? He is a potential winner but the essence of gambling is to bet only when the odds are in your favor.

Anyone holding an ante-post voucher above 7-2 about Murray winning in ­Melbourne scribbled on it should be con­gratulated for their foresight, but although he has beaten Federer twice and Rafael Nadal once this season his record in the first grand slam of the year is poor. He has two first-round losses in three starts and, of course, is yet to win a major title.

Interestingly, Federer, who is 14-5 (Boylesports) to win the Australian Open, was made favorite both times he faced the Scot this season. Paddy Power went 4-6 and 5-6 for the matches in Abu Dhabi and Qatar respectively and the firm has indicated it would probably make Federer the market leader again should the pair meet in the final. Tellingly, it is the world No2 who has attracted the most support in the run-up to the tournament, with Extrabet reporting some hefty wagers on Federer, including one of £5,000 at 3-1.

Murray will have been unlucky to draw a player of the calibre of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – the Frenchman who knocked him out in the first round last year before going on to reach the final – but it is worth inspecting the draw, which was made late last night, before ­placing any wagers.

Outside Murray and Federer, there are question marks over the form and fitness of both the world No1 Nadal, 9-2 (Blue Square and Totesport) to win the season's first major, and the defending champion Novak Djokovic, a general 6-1 shot.

In fact, should Ernests Gulbis be drawn in the same quarter as Djokovic, the Latvian would be worth backing to make the semi-final. The fast-improving Gulbis, who defeated Djokovic in the Brisbane International last week, is just 20-1 in places to win the Australian Open although 66-1 is available with Victor Chandler. Watch out for winning quarter prices later today.

There is one bet worth taking about Murray in the Australian Open: ­Ladbrokes offers 11-10 he will require two or more medical timeouts in the entire tournament. This price has been cut from 6-4 but it still seems a fair wager, as Murray's bad back and the intense heat in Melbourne could cause the Scot problems.

Also of interest is the 2-1 generally available that Murray will win the Sports Personality of the Year award as, if he manages major success this year (William Hill offers 11-10 he wins one of them in 2009), he will have an excellent chance.

Elena Dementieva's demolition of Serena Williams at the Sydney International has seen the Russian cut to 10-1 (Betfred) to win in Melbourne. Ahead of last night's final against Dinara Safina (10-1, general, for the Australian Open), Dementieva was unbeaten in nine consecutive WTA Tour matches and, at double-figure odds, looked a fair each-way bet. Venus Williams heads the market at 3-1 (general) with her sister at 7-2 (Coral) and the world No1 Jelena Jankovic 7-1 (Boylesports).

Selections

Andy Murray to require two or more medical timeouts in the Australian Open at 11-10 (Ladbrokes) *****

Elena Dementieva, each-way, in the women's singlesat 10-1(Betfred)*